Ukrainian artillery units on the front line near Avdiivka are in desperate need of ammunition. Photo: Getty/Ozge Elif Kizil
Even the bloodied standards of the eastern front of Ukraine are massacres on an industrial scale.
Flying over the no-man's land near Avdiivka, the camera of a Ukrainian drone records the number of dead opponents. During a short tour of the battle-scarred fields, the camera counted a total of 113 uncollected Russian corpses rotting in the mud.
Such casualties have become common since Russian troops launched an all-out attack. assault on Avdeevka in November. British intelligence estimates that around 1,000 Russian soldiers are killed or wounded there every day, making it one of the most costly battlefields of the two-year war.
Despite the horrific loss of life, however, Vladimir Putin's forces appear to be , finally found themselves on the verge of taking Avdeevka — or what was left of it. Last week, Russian troops reached the devastated outskirts of the city, prompting a warning from Mayor Vitaly Barabash that the situation was now “critical.”
“Unfortunately, the enemy is advancing from all sides,” he said. said on Thursday. “There is not a single quiet part of our city, they are going to storm with very large forces.”
At first glance, Avdeevka is not such a reward, especially one for which it is worth giving thousands of lives. It is home to only about 30,000 people, most of whom have long fled, and has few assets other than a huge Soviet-era coke plant on the outskirts.
Instead, as with Bakhmut—an equally modest prize that Russian troops demanded at great cost last May—Avdiivka's value is more symbolic than strategic. But if the Russians do win there, the narrative of victory may no longer be about raw Russian military might. Questions will also be asked about whether Ukraine's own forces are finally weakening, their strength exhausted not only by two years of relentless blows punching above their weight, but also by weak Western support.
Residential buildings were heavily damaged as a result of constant Russian military strikes in Avdiivka. Photo: Reuters/Sergey Nuzhnenko
According to the Ukrainian command, recent blockages of military aid packages in the US and EU have led to a catastrophic shortage of artillery on the front line in Avdiivka. Back in the summer, both sides pelted each other with shells in approximately equal quantities. Now, the Ukrainians complain, Russian troops can fire five rounds for each of their own.
«The general consensus is that if Avdiivka falls, it will be America's fault,» says Glen Grant, a former British defense attache to Baltic countries and former adviser to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.
“The delays in support have been too long, the Ukrainians are running out of everything, and the Europeans have not yet been able to up their game to compensate for this loss. The main thing is that there is not enough artillery ammunition and missiles — sometimes there are almost none.”
The offensive against Avdiivka began in October, when Ukraine's gains in the war seemed to be waning for the first time. A summer counter-offensive in Zaporozhye in the south did not produce the expected results, and the outbreak of conflict between Israel and Hamas distracted the attention of Ukraine's Western supporters. Hoping to take advantage, 40,000 Russian troops attacked the city, located 15 miles north of separatist-held Donetsk.
At first it was a disaster. Ukrainian troops have already taken up positions in Soviet-era high-rise buildings on the outskirts of Avdiivka, giving them vantage points over the open fields surrounding the city. Russian armor had to break through territory already pre-programmed for Ukrainian artillery strikes, and in the first two months it lost more than 200 vehicles.
The Kremlin then turned to so-called «meat wave» tactics: rapid attacks by thousands of low-grade foot soldiers. This too was unsuccessful, and after losses of some 13,000 men, by December the offensive seemed to have died down.
The Russians have gained momentum by using drones equipped with night vision equipment to disrupt Ukrainian supply lines that were operating under the cover of darkness.
Medics help a Ukrainian soldier wounded in Avdiivka. Photo: Reuters/Alina Smutko
Some of Ukraine's best troops took part in the battle: the 110th Mechanized Brigade, which defended Avdiivka almost continuously since the beginning of the war; and the 47th Mechanized Brigade, which led the summer counteroffensive. Despite the fact that it is now the height of winter — when fighting usually subsides — the fighting continues constantly.
“Every day new fresh [Russian] forces appear, regardless of the weather, regardless of anything — regardless of losses,” — one Ukrainian soldier told Radio Free Europe. “But, despite everything, they continue to crawl — literally on their bodies.”
But while the Russians can draw on seemingly endless reserves of troops, many of them former prisoners, the Ukrainian ranks are dwindling. . According to an article by Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov on Telegram, the 110th Division was from time to time forced to attract its auto mechanics, including older people, to protect gaps in the city’s front line.
“Everyone is needed to protect Avdiivka, who can hold a machine gun in their hands,” Butusov wrote, noting that many “grandfathers” died in battle.
“There are becoming very few people on the front line in general, and Avdiivka is a symptom of this,” Mr. Grant added. “The 110 is a good bunch, but it's just worn out.”
Russian forces also have a large number of first-person drones: mini-drones carrying explosives that can be guided directly by the operator to their target. The footage shows them stalking individual soldiers across the battlefield like giant mosquitoes, buzzing overhead before swooping in and blowing their victims to pieces.
To add insult to injury, Ukrainian soldiers complain they still have to rely heavily on themselves. online donations from well-wishers to raise money to buy their drones; warriors, they complain, should also not be fundraising.
A police officer urges a local resident living in a dilapidated house to evacuate from Avdeevka. Photo: Getty/Vlada Liberova
This year's presidential elections on both sides of the Atlantic will commemorate the battle for the city of Donbass. In the United States, the financial blockade of Ukraine is led by Republicans who sympathize with the candidacy of Donald Trump, who has promised to cut aid to Ukraine in order to force Kyiv to conclude a peace agreement. Meanwhile, Putin wants Avdeevka to become the scalp of his own voters ahead of Russia's presidential elections on March 17.
Not everyone, however, perceives Avdeevka so categorically. While Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser, argues that taking it «would be a great victory for the Russian army,» others say all it would do is bolster security in nearby occupied Donetsk, the main local Russian logistics hub.
And while the artillery shortage is partly to blame for a feuding Washington, it also reflects a shortage of supplies from Europe, which has so far met only half of its current obligations.
Also, whatever circumstances Because of their failures in Avdiivka, Ukrainian troops also believe that, as in the case of Bakhmut, they again made Russia pay a very high price. One Ukrainian fighter in the city said morale was still strong and that the lack of Western support was just one factor.
«You can't just blame the mind or the individual for something — it's complicated,» — he said. “But yes, if Ukraine had at least half of the ammunition that Russia uses every day, we would now have a much better picture everywhere.”
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