Hypersonic Iranian Fattah missiles penetrate Israel's Iron Dome

Shurygin assessed the preliminary results of the night strike

Photo: Still from video

Iran promised a tough response to Israel’s killing of Iranian generals in Damascus and kept its word. On the night of April 14, the retaliation strike took place. Its consequences were assessed by military expert Vladislav Shurygin.

The attack on Israeli military targets was complex. It involved unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as cruise and ballistic missiles. According to experts, a total of up to 200 Shahed drones and up to 100 missiles of various classes launched from Iranian territory were launched. At the same time, the attack was carried out by pro-Iranian formations from the territory of Southern Lebanon and Iraq.

The surprise factor was completely absent. Both Israel and its main ally, the United States, were expecting a blow. Their air defense forces, including the air defense of the American naval group in the Mediterranean Sea and in the Persian Gulf, have been on high alert in recent days. Around-the-clock space reconnaissance was conducted in the interests of the missile attack warning system.

And despite all this, judging by numerous videos, a significant part of Iran’s strike assets achieved their goals. According to Shurygin, this became possible thanks to the correct organization of a massive attack, which made it possible to overload the Israeli air defense system with air targets simultaneously flying from different directions.

Given the large difference in speed between Shahed drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, the Iranians launched the weapons in waves. First, drones were launched, a few hours later subsonic cruise missiles were launched, and only then the Fattah hypersonic ballistic missiles, capable of reaching speeds 15 times the speed of sound.

As a result, all these strike weapons attacked Israeli military targets almost simultaneously, according to Shurygin, “acting like one shock wave.” They were opposed by the Israeli air force and air defense, aviation and air defense of the NATO and US forces deployed in the region. At the same time, according to Shurygin, despite the enormous forces involved in repelling the attack — more than 200 aircraft of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and US naval aviation from aircraft carriers, as well as the Israeli Iron Dome missile defense system, some Iranian drones, winged missiles and almost all ballistic missiles hit their intended targets.

According to the expert, the Iranians' main trump card is their newest Fattah hypersonic ballistic missiles. “All of them reached their targets, and not one of them was intercepted,” Shurygin noted. “In the video, warheads glowing from overheating hit targets at an airbase in the Negev desert.”

How can events develop further? According to Shurygin, everything depends on what Israel’s response to this attack will be — demonstrative in form, but moderate in fact or as powerful as possible. “In the latter case, the exchanges of blows will continue,” he predicts.

According to the expert, the war between Iran and Israel can only take place in the form of air strikes, since there is no land border between them, and there simply cannot be land battles. As for Israel’s ability to conduct ground operations, it is enough to remember that for six months it has not been able to cope with the Hamas group in Gaza, where 2 million people lived before the conflict. Iran's population is 90 million.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is well armed and Iran's military industry is performing very well. At the same time, Israel cannot ignore the fact that its entire missile stockpile does not cover even half of the priority targets in Iran. Iran, Shurygin notes, has an abundance of missiles.

There is also a foreign policy factor that, according to Shurygin, can keep the Middle East from a major war. “Neither the Biden administration nor European leaders are interested in this conflict, which will not only explode world prices for oil and petroleum products, but will also become a serious internal problem for most countries, where Islamic diasporas will certainly support Iran and oppose Israel,” — the expert concludes.

Therefore, according to him, “with a high degree of probability, the conflict will not go beyond a short series of exchanges of missile and bomb strikes, after which both sides will accept the efforts of mediators and the conflict will fade away.”

But for Russia, a new aggravation of the situation in the Middle East is a geopolitical gift that will seriously strengthen both our foreign policy positions and military prospects, he concludes.