Analysts from the federal developer DOGMA summed up the results of the first quarter of 2024 on the primary housing market in Moscow and the Moscow region. Due to the reduction in interest rate subsidies, demand for new buildings fell by 50% in January to December, but by March it had recovered to the level of previous years.
The pace of construction was maintained, and prices increased by 20 %
The volume of construction in the region at the end of March 2024 added 6% to the same month last year and amounted to 26 million square meters. m.Demand for housing in the Moscow region (including Moscow within the old and new borders, as well as the region) remains stable, despite the economically unstable times — the high key rate of the Central Bank and tightening conditions for preferential mortgage programs.
In March of this year, 5.9 million sq. m. were on sale in the primary housing market of the Moscow region. m.The volume of supply increased by 7% during the quarter, and remained unchanged relative to last year. From January to March, housing was exhibited at an average price of 360 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m (includes the comfort, business and luxury housing segments) — this is 10.4% more expensive than in the first quarter of last year. At the same time, the mass housing segment has risen in price more than others — it added 20% to the year (from 275 thousand to 338 thousand rubles per 1 sq. m).
There is demand, but few are buying
In March, the Moscow region market observed a slight stagnation of prices compared to February of this year: the mass segment within the boundaries of the old Moscow lost 1.5% in price, in the Moscow region the decrease was 0.5%. In turn, in New Moscow prices increased by 0.4%.
The reduction in cost was caused by an almost 50% drop in demand in January-February 2024 compared to December 2023. “This is a market reaction to changes in the conditions of subsidized programs. In particular, for Moscow and the Moscow region, the determining factor was the reduction in the terms of the limit on mortgages with state support to 6 million rubles, which previously was within 12 million rubles. In addition, under this program, the conditions for the down payment at the end of the year were increased to 30%,” explains Ilya Vitkovsky, vice president of sales and marketing of the construction company DOGMA.
At the same time, in general, the picture in the first quarter of 2024 repeated the first quarter of 2023. Then, also in January-February, sales did not exceed 370 thousand sq. m. m, and in March they jumped to 536 thousand sq. m. m. This year, March sales in the Moscow region market increased by 52% compared to March 2023, to 558 thousand sq. m. m.
Mortgage
The key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in January-March remained at 16%. Developers and buyers are waiting for its reduction, since current rate conditions still do not allow more purchase and sale transactions under the standard mortgage program.
The share of mortgages in March 2024 increased compared to February 2024 by 7 points and accounted for 70% of the total number of transactions, while in March last year, more home purchases were made without a mortgage; transactions with a mortgage accounted for 59% of sales.
Today, one of the main sales drivers is the family mortgage program. The share of this program in DOGMA has already reached 80% in relation to other state support programs. The company's analysts believe that the trend for subsidized state programs will continue until the key rate is reduced to the level of rates for these programs.
Number of housing on display (sq. m)< /p> 
Based on data from DOM.RF
Number of housing sold (sq. m)
Based on data from DOM.RF
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