An Israeli tank waits on Israel's southern border with the Gaza Strip near Rafah. Photo: ATEF SAFADI/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
In 40-degree heat, key UN officials gathered in the destroyed Rafah compound to hear the organization's most senior security official give them a brief overview of what many expect , will be a traumatic and bloody few months in southern Gaza.
“We cannot predict, but we can prepare,” Gilles Michaud, UN Under-Secretary-General for Safety and Security, told aid workers at the World Food Programme, the World Health Organization, UNICEF and others on Thursday.
< p >They must plan for all contingencies, including a full-scale military invasion, he warned.
A graduate of the FBI and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, Mr. Michaud is better placed than anyone to read the runes of the expected Israeli offensive on Rafah, Hamas's last stronghold in the Gaza Strip and home to more than a million displaced people.
Those who took Benjamin Netanyahu at his word have no doubt that the attack will happen. Since October 7, he has promised not to stop until Hamas is completely destroyed.
Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif, two of the most senior leaders of the terrorist group in Gaza, are believed to be hiding somewhere in the southern city.
Satellite image of a tent camp for Palestinian refugees near Rafah. Photo: Maxar Technologies
It was the Nahal Brigade that was responsible for the drone strike that killed seven aid workers at World Central Kitchen, including three Britons, a month ago. although the senior officers responsible have since been fired.
Another possible indicator of what was to come was a meeting on Wednesday morning between Egypt's intelligence chief and the head of Israel's Shin Bet security agency, Ronen Bar, and IDF Chief of Staff Gen. -Lieutenant Herzi Halevi.
Cairo has long been warned against attacking Rafah, fearing a humanitarian disaster that could push Gazans across the border into Egypt.
Despite these and other risks, the IDF is keen to promote the idea that an attack on Rafah is imminent. .
“Hamas suffered greatly in the northern sector. It was also hit hard in the downtown Strip. And soon it will be hit hard in Rafah too,” said Israeli Brigadier General Itzik Cohen of the 162nd Division. “Rafah will not be the Rafah of today… There will be no ammunition there. And there will be no hostages there.”
Most Western governments expect the assault to continue, but questions remain about the viability of the IDF's stated goals.
Families of hostages held by Hamas , demonstrate near the Kirya base, where the Israeli cabinet met on Thursday. Photo: Amir Levy/Getty Images
“An Israeli attack [on Rafah] would kill some Hamas fighters, destroy some Hamas infrastructure, including tunnels, and put pressure on part of the movement's armed wing,” said Hugh Lovatt, senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
“[But] in my estimation, Hamas in the Gaza Strip will survive the Rafah operation. A lot of time has passed, and the military wing will be preparing for this… to a certain extent, they will be able to regroup in central Gaza and the north.”
This could be a good omen. Unfortunately for Netanyahu's government, he said: “If they don't eventually bring home the hostages and defeat Hamas, then I think there will be a huge political crisis.”
This is one of the reasons why Israel persists in negotiations for the release of hostages, despite the lack of progress for several months. Some interpret the growing military clamor over Rafah as a way to force Hamas to act.
Brigadier General (ret.) Assaf Orion, former head of the IDF's strategic office and a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, said one of the benefits of the Rafah attack, besides destroying Hamas, was “pressure on hostage negotiations.”
A high-level Egyptian delegation led by Abbas Kamel, the country's intelligence chief, arrived in Tel Aviv on Friday morning to try to break the deadlock.
If Hamas regroups after the attack, it could bode ill for Netanyahu. Photo: Shir Torem/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo
Israel's war cabinet has reportedly agreed to soften its approach, reducing the required number of hostages that must be released first. phase from 40 to 20, provided that they are all either women, children, elderly or wounded, according to Channel 12 news.
Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, is also expected in Israel next week to discuss Rafah, Israeli broadcaster Kan reports.
Those discussions could be difficult. Although the US previously supported the Israeli attack, its position has hardened in recent weeks.
“We don't think there is any effective way to evacuate 1.4 million Palestinians. It is impossible to conduct an operation in Rafah that would not result in undue harm to civilians and seriously impede the delivery of humanitarian assistance,” US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said on Monday.
US Navy ships arrived at sea on Friday to begin construction of a floating pier to improve the flow of aid into Gaza. IDF troops oversee the construction of a pier on the beach to receive cargo.
Hamas has said it will resist any foreign military presence associated with the project, and UN officials visiting the site on Thursday had to take cover during a mortar attack.
Some analysts believe the US and other countries have greater influence on Israel following an Iranian drone and missile attack two weeks ago, in which Western forces played a decisive role in intercepting the projectiles.
The attack sent a clear message to Israel. “Relies on Centcom [US Central Command] for forward cover,” said an Israeli intelligence analyst. It also “reset the diplomatic compass” and Israel's “measured response” demonstrated a degree of strategic acumen in the eyes of its partners.
There can be no doubt that an attack on Rafah could prove diplomatically costly. < /p>
“Rafah has become an international symbol, so relations may be difficult regardless of changing conditions,” said Brigadier General Assaf Orion.
“The cost depends on the method and pre-evacuation and humanitarian support, of which the first indicators are tents, dialogue with the US, flow of aid, etc.”
Despite this, planning on the ground is already underway.
“We are looking at where there are still partially functioning hospitals in other areas and [asking] will they be able to cope with the increase in the number of patients?” – said Nika Alexander, WHO health emergencies officer.
Although the flow of food into the area had improved recently, Ms Alexander said conditions in Rafah were poor, citing a lack of nutritious food, lice, extreme heat-borne viruses and foodborne viruses including hepatitis.
“People here face so many challenges,” she said. “Yesterday I was in a shelter, a shelter for 50,000 people. There are 44 toilets. So, you do math.”
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