The share of Russians who keep money on deposits has reached a 10-year high. As reported by the Central Bank, this method of savings is chosen by 44% of the population. Since the beginning of the year, Russians have deposited more than 2 trillion rubles in banks. For every ruble of consumer lending, three are sent to deposits. “Kommersant FM” interviewed investment consultants and found out how to save capital now.
Deposits remain the fastest growing asset class. Judging by the data from the Financial Services platform, banks are willing to offer the highest rates only for short periods – up to three months. In this case, you can count on an average return of 14.6%. Conditions for annual deposits are worse – about 12%. But it’s still worth taking a closer look at them, says investment adviser Anatoly Protasov: “Currently, money is being saved in the mass in which it is, both in banks and under the mattress.
The savings planning horizon has changed little. That is, we need to look for such offers on the market in order to fix high rates. The longer, the better for capital. Yes, now the signal has sounded that the average rate for the year is 15-16%. All the same, the Central Bank aims to reduce the main interest rate. The question is when, but it is not yet clear. It’s easier, of course, to fix it for a longer period. If there are any personal expectations, plans, perhaps, to restructure the portfolio and expand the living space, you need to look at it individually, but on average it is better to invest for a longer period and not twitch or shift.”
Investment consultants are also recording demand for foreign exchange instruments due to the expected depreciation of the ruble. According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, the average dollar exchange rate in 2024 will be about 95 rubles, and in the next year it may gain a foothold above 100 rubles. Last week, the government decided to extend the decree on the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings. It orders large exporters to return 80% of the foreign currency they earn to the country and sell 90% of this volume. As stated in the press release, this is necessary to maintain the stability of the ruble. The decision will indeed support the national currency, but will not stop its decline, says Dmitry Polevoy, investment director at Astra Asset Management:
“Russia, one way or another, depends on imports. Exchange rate fluctuations are translated into domestic inflation.
In the future, there is still a certain list of these risks for the national currency, so a rational approach for any investor is to have savings in rubles. And this should probably be a large part, given the still high stakes.
But definitely part of the capital can and should be allocated to foreign currency assets. Probably 20-30% of assets can be distributed into foreign currency or a foreign exchange instrument. The process of replacing the main issuers is almost coming to an end. The next step is to replace the papers by the Ministry of Finance. We also do not rule out that in the coming months and quarters a number of issuers may issue loans in foreign currency. But you still need to compare this with the possible income on ruble instruments, in particular, deposits.
What is the forecast for the dollar until the end of the year? Range from 95 rub. up to 100 rub. is the most likely. The short-term outlook for May-June may be quite good. For the ruble, March foreign trade statistics showed a fairly noticeable recovery in the trade surplus. And, in fact, this currency will reach exporters. Plus the traditional tax period, exporting companies will be preparing to pay dividends and this can also keep the ruble, perhaps closer to the level of 90 rubles.”
One of the surprises for investment companies in 2024 was the Russian stock market. Due to high interest rates, some players, including, for example, VTB, predicted that the stock section would grow by a maximum of 5% for the entire 2024. Since January, the Moscow Exchange index has already added 13%. This year could be a record year for dividends. According to Tinkoff Investments estimates, the companies will pay investors more than 5 trillion rubles. But you can’t count on a significant increase in shares, Tsifra Broker analyst Natalia Pyryeva is sure:
“Monetary policy, high rates, it would seem, should reduce investor interest in the stock market. And we actually maintain a moderately conservative view of further growth potential, since this growth was associated, firstly, with expectations of annual reports, which were successful.
Also, along with the expectation of large dividends, all this positive was won back. We continue to hold open positions, but to form new ones we are waiting for some kind of correction in the broad market.”
Since May 1, Russians have more opportunities to transfer funds between banks without commission. Sending money to yourself using the fast payments system will be free if the client adheres to the limit of 30 million rubles. per month. Previously, this figure was only 100 thousand rubles.
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