Sir Keir Starmer is celebrating his victory in the Blackpool by-election, but local results elsewhere will give him pause. Photo: REUTERS/Phil Noble
Amid all the talk of a “seismic” Labor victory, a closer look at the election results so far may leave Sir Keir Starmer with nagging doubt in the back of his mind.
He already knows that overturning Boris Johnson's 80-seat majority in 2019 is not a given, as no party in history has achieved such a massive change in one leap.
And he now knows that position Labour's Gaza vote is causing the Muslim vote to collapse, most clearly in Oldham where his party lost full control of the council, but it has also played out elsewhere.
And Sir Keir can't do it. ignore the fact that Harlow, a town he visited twice, including on Wednesday, remained loyal to the Tories, which can only be interpreted as a sign that he remains unconvinced by voters.
Labour will not managed to win the elections Tis. The Valley mayoral election and there is speculation that Labor could have a disappointing result in some of the other mayoral elections yet to be called, despite spending huge sums trying to wrest them from the Tories.
So while it was undoubtedly a superb night for Labour, it was not the kind of decisive blow that could close the door on Labour's general election majority.
In Oldham, where a quarter of the population is Muslim , Labour's vote dropped by eight percentage points in constituencies where more than one in 10 voters are Muslim.
In Blackburn with Darwen, the news for Labor was even grimmer: its vote share fell by 35 percent in areas where at least one in 10 people is Muslim, although Labor retained control of the council.
In the Bastwell and Daisyfield constituency, where 84 per cent of residents are Muslim – the third highest figure in the country – Labor support fell from 85 per cent to 39 per cent as an independent was elected advisor.
Pat McFadden, Labour's national campaign co-ordinator, admitted that Sir Keir's reluctance to support the Gaza ceasefire was a “problem” on the doorstep, and independent candidates who stood on a pro-Palestinian platform won enough seats to take away Labour's majority.
Labour is also bracing for defeat in a high-profile West Midlands mayoral election in which it believed it could unseat Andy Street, the Conservative incumbent.
Polls suggested the result would be too close to call, but Muslim voters appeared to favor Ahmed Yaqub, an independent candidate backed by George Galloway, who campaigned heavily on the Gaza issue.
The result is expected on Saturday afternoon, but Labor candidate Richard Parker is gloomy about his prospects.
Labor has already conceded defeat in the Tees Valley mayoral election, where popular Conservative Ben Houchen is expected to retain his post despite Labor predictions of disappointment.
He said: “We have Labor based here The party… the shadow cabinet has basically been funding the tourism industry here for the last two weeks because they thought they had it, but in the end they were far from it.”
< p>In London, where Sadiq Khan is expected to win a third term, there are signs that postal voting is declining in Muslim areas and that those Muslim voters who turn out to vote may be voting for independent candidates, suggesting Mr. Khan's vote share will decline. .
Labor sources even suggested that Mr Khan, seen in opinion polls as an insurmountable challenger, could be in close range, complaining that the Tories had “rigged the system to make it easier for them to win”.
All this, of course, comes two months after Mr Galloway won a landslide victory in the Rochdale by-election with an openly opportunistic appeal to Muslim voters .
< p>Mr Galloway's Labor Party followed his by-election victory with two council seats from Labor in Rochdale, the first time it had won in a local election.
Then there is Harlow. Sir Keir made the second of his campaign visits to the Essex town on Wednesday, leaving no doubt about the importance he attaches to it. He even said: “We really need to win in places like Harlow.”
The fact that he did not – as the Tories clung to control of the council – gives Rishi Sunak some hope that predictions of a Labor general election victory may be premature.
Sir Keir is sure to be disappointed that his personal appeal to Harlow voters was rejected, which bodes poorly for the televised leaders' debate which will be crucial in the national polls .
In Newcastle, voters elected their first Conservative councilor in 32 years and their first Green councilors as Labor suffered a net loss of seats while retaining control of the council.
In South Tyneside, Labor lost 10 seats to independents and Green candidates, which was blamed on local issues including waste collection and children's services.
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