The Russian currency is confidently strengthening in the local market. The dollar exchange rate at exchange trading on May 6 fell below 91 rubles/$, updating an eight-week minimum; the volume of dollar trading remains around 100 billion rubles, which is noticeably higher than the daily average in April. The game for the strengthening of the ruble is facilitated by the deferred supply of foreign currency by exporters, high ruble rates and the weakening of the American currency in the world. According to analysts, in the coming days the dollar exchange rate may fall below 90 rubles/$, but as summer approaches it should return to the range of 95–100 rubles/$.
On Monday, May 6, the exchange rate of the American currency at trading on the Moscow Exchange fell below 91 rubles/$ for the first time in two months. Despite the fact that in the morning session the dollar exchange rate exceeded 92 rubles/$, with the start of the main trading it steadily decreased and by 15:40 it reached 90.84 rubles/$, the minimum value since March 12. Even taking into account the recovery (to 91.35 rubles/$), the rate stopped near the values of a month and a half ago. The euro exchange rate decreased by 32 kopecks during the day, to 98.64 rubles/€. The yuan fell in price by 5 kopecks. and closed at 12.64 rubles/CNY.
The strengthening of the Russian currency took place with a fairly high volume of trading in the dollar for delivery “tomorrow”: almost 94 billion rubles, which is only 8 % lower than Friday, but 30% higher than the average daily trading volume in April. Yuan trading volume decreased by a quarter compared to the same period in April, to RUB 100 billion. A similar decline was observed in the euro, whose trading volume amounted to only RUB 23 billion.
High trading activity in the dollar has been observed for the third day in a row and is associated with sales primarily from exporters, delayed due to the long first May weekend, notes Evgeniy Loktyukhov, head of the economic and industry analysis department of PSB.
“Increased sales of dollars could be caused by the purchase of Russian exports from foreign traders, who could also become more active after the May holidays,” does not exclude the chief analyst of Sovcombank Mikhail Vasiliev.
In general, several factors are playing in favor of the ruble this month: a one-year extension of the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings for the largest exporters, a surplus in the current account of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation. High ruble interest rates provide additional support. Thus, after the Bank of Russia meeting on April 26, the likelihood has increased that the key rate will remain at the current level of 16% until the end of the year. “Moderate support for the ruble could be provided by the approaching inauguration of the Russian President on May 7, as well as information about an increase in sales of foreign currency from reserves as part of budget operations to 6.3 billion rubles. per day,” says Mikhail Vasiliev.
90.84 rubles
the dollar exchange rate reached at the Moscow trading exchange May 6, 2024
On the part of external factors in relation to the ruble, one can highlight the rise in oil prices after a deep correction last week, as well as the continued negative dynamics of the dollar on the international market, notes Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank. On Monday, the DXY index (the dollar exchange rate against six leading currencies) fell to 104.87 points, 0.3% below Friday’s closing values and 15% below the local maximum reached at the beginning of last week.
Under the influence of local and external factors, the strengthening of the ruble may continue, although it is unlikely to last long. As Vladimir Evstifeev notes, in the short term the dollar exchange rate may test the level of 90 rubles/$, but in the medium term a smooth return to the range of 95–100 rubles/$ is more likely. “Negative factors for the ruble are the seasonally increasing demand for currency since May, including for foreign tourism, geopolitical and sanctions risks, capital outflow, demand for currency to buy out shares of Russian companies from foreign owners, increased budget expenses,” lists Mikhail Vasiliev .
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