Number 10 sources suggested that if a plot to overthrow the Prime Minister were to materialize after local election results, it could trigger elections in June or July Photo: Ian Forsyth/Getty Images
Downing Street has shelved plans for a general election this summer, The Telegraph understands, and many are now expecting an autumn vote after the Tories' defeat in local elections.
Allies Rishi Sunak is said to be hopeful that an improving economy and deportation flights from Rwanda expected this summer could boost his chances of re-election in the autumn.
Number 10 sources suggested that in the event of a plot to overthrow If a prime minister were to materialize after local election results, it could trigger elections in June or July.
But Tory rebels are understood to have refused a change party leader before the general election and senior officials. Tory campaign workers now believe there is an “80 to 90 per cent chance” Mr Sunak will scrap the summer election, instead calling it for October or November.
One well-placed Sunak ally told The Telegraph: “I definitely think the viewing weight will come down later as there is still a lot we can do to demonstrate performance.”
Taking a local view. The election was over and the scale of the Tories' defeat became clear. The Conservatives lost 397 council seats.
The Tories also claimed just one of the 11 mayoral posts. Some Conservatives blamed Andy Street's defeat as West Midlands mayor on support for reform.
But a glimmer of hope came from an analysis by Oxford University academics Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, who said the results pointed to a hung parliament after the general election.
Estimating what each party's share of the vote would have been in a national election, the scientists estimate that Labor would have received 34 percent and the Tories 27 percent, a lead of just nine points. That's far lower than the general election results, which put Labor ahead by about 20 points, raising hopes among some Tories that Mr Sunak can turn around the party's fortunes if given more time.
PM minister seized on analysis On Sunday he said: “These results suggest we are heading towards a hung parliament with Labor as the largest party.”
“Keir Starmer, backed in Downing Street by the SNP, Lib Dems and green would be a disaster for the UK.
“The country does not need political bargaining, but action. We are the only party that has a plan to deliver on the people's priorities.”
Labour's shadow cabinet ministers also acknowledged that some Muslim voters had left the party over Gaza. On Sunday, a Muslim political pressure group published a list of 18 people with “demands” for Sir Keir Starmer, the Labor leader, to win back their support.
The Conservative losses have sparked public debate over the direction the party must now take to pull off what Mr Sunak said would be the “greatest comeback in political history”.
“These results cannot be reversed”
She said: “It is often said that we are a 'broad church' but since 2016 this has sometimes proven to be more of a weakness than a strength. These divisions, of course, create unhelpful headlines, but they also ensure that some of the key reforms our voters demand simply cannot be delivered – under Rishi Sunak or any other leader.”
She called for policies such as leaving the European Union. Human Rights Court 'radically' cuts immigration and reforms planning laws to boost housing development.
Suella Braverman, the former home secretary, warned in an interview that the Tories would be “lucky” if they have any MPs quit after the next election unless Sunak changes course.
Ms Braverman told Sunday BBC One with Laura Kuenssberg: “There's no way to distort these results, there's no hiding the fact that this was a terrible election result for the Conservatives and it suggests we're heading for a Labor government and that fills me with horror.”
< img src="/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/5508e6ba94f1d1f26ab0a16943b3c7c0.jpg" />Suella Braverman told Laura Kuenssberg that the thought of a Labor government “fills me with horror”; Photo: Geoff Owers/BBC
She, too, called for a move to the right in politics.
But Mr Street, a symbol of moderate Toryism who entered politics after running the John Lewis chain, argued what of his defeat as mayor of the West Midlands.
After his narrow defeat was announced, Mr Street said: “What everyone should take away from Birmingham and the West Midlands tonight is that this is a brand of moderate, inclusive, tolerant conservatism that is doing well and delivering results , almost defeated the Labor Party.” But Dame Andrea Jenkins, a Conservative MP, said on Sunday: “Every Conservative, One Nation, Thatcherite Tory like me, we will wake up and smell the coffee.”
She added: “It is nonsense to say that we need to go to the center of politics.”
The Prime Minister will look to take the lead this week, visiting a community center in London on Monday, and more details of his wealth shake-up are expected to emerge later this week.
Bank of England monetary policy committee to announce its decision to cut interest rates on Thursday. The Tories hope at least one cut will be made before the autumn election, bolstering their argument that the economy has turned the corner.
“We must prepare for disaster.”
Mr Sunak has no intention of publicly ruling out a summer election. until his core team of advisers makes a final, binding decision.
The prime minister's public position is that he expects a vote in the second half of the year, a position that leaves open the possibility of a July vote.
But some Conservative Party figures, including former chancellor George Osborne, have called on him to give a date, arguing that uncertainty over the timing could be politically damaging.
On Sunday, Lord Frost, the former Brexit negotiator, expressed fears it was too late to change the Conservatives' fortunes before the next general election, due by January next year.
In an article in The Telegraph: he said: “I wish it could be done in the remaining months before the elections. We finally did it in 2019. But I'm afraid this won't happen.
“So real conservatives must now face the fact that we must prepare for disaster: fortify shelters, stop sandbagging, unclog sewers, wait for floods. And then, when it recedes, we'll see what we can grow in the new fertile land left behind.”
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