Sale Sharks and Saracens will face each other in the final match of the main league campaign – but will either be promoted to the Premier League or relegated? Our expert made his predictions. Photo: Jan Kruger/Getty Images
Put down the scores. Telegraph Sport is here to tell you what each of the remaining contenders – Northampton Saints, Saracens, Bath, Sale Sharks, Exeter Chiefs, Harlequins and Bristol Bears – need ahead of the final round of matches The Gallagher Premiership is next weekend, with a home semi-final. the final and two places in the playoffs are still up for grabs.
A quick reminder of (realistic) Premier League tiebreakers:
- Matches won
- Difference in points
- Number of points for
- Sale have one more win than Exeter, but a much worse margin in points (+16 to +93).
- They have two more wins than Harlequins and a slightly better points difference (+16 to – 9)
- Sale have one more win than Bristol and a significantly worse points difference (+16 to +119)
- Bristol will have the advantage in Sale given the points difference (+ from 119 to +16) if Sale lose to Saracens (both 11 wins)
- It's close with Exeter. Both teams are currently on 10 wins and the points difference is small (+119 to +93).
< /ul>1. Northampton SaintsFinal match: Bath
Mentioned here because first place is still in play, although it will be secured by victory at Bath. If that doesn't happen and Northampton lose, then it will be about bonus points and finishing ahead of Saracens, who currently have the better points difference.
Why first place is so important given that ” Has Northampton already guaranteed a home semi-final on Friday 31 May? Because facing the fourth-placed team in the semi-finals should be easier.
Here's a sad statistic: no team has ever won the Premier League after finishing the season in third place. However, there have been two fourth-place winners: Saracens in 2015 and Harlequins in 2021.
2. SaracensFinal match: Sale (h)
Suddenly there were a lot of people asking them for a favor, playing at home to fourth-placed Sale.
< p>As mentioned, they can find a way to sneak in first, but also need to win to secure second place, and a home semi-final, with Bath (one point back) and Sale (four), could theoretically take them into that place. Having a significantly larger point differential than both of these teams is very handy.
3. Bath final match: Northampton (h)
Won't be able to finish top even if they get a bonus point win and deny Northampton anything to finish on 60 points given Saints would still have more wins in this scenario (12 to 11 ). Second place is very important if Bath win and Sale stop Saracens, but if Bath and Saracens finish on the same points then Saracens will retain the advantage with more wins and a larger points difference.
Then things get interesting. Assuming Bath lose without a bonus point and Exeter win against Leicester with a bonus point to tie them on 55 points, then Exeter will retain the lead by winning more matches. If the same events happened but against Harlequins, it would come down to points difference, where Bath would have a healthy cushion.
That's like saying Bath could still miss the play -off, in theory. One bonus point against Northampton would take them beyond the reach of Exeter and Harlequins.
4. Sharks SaleFinal decision: Saracens (a)
It would have helped Sale greatly if Saracens had already completed a home semi-final or top spot, but instead they will get Saracens at full strength. They have also only won once on StoneX, in the 2019 Premiership Rugby Cup.
Three teams are breathing down their necks – Exeter, Harlequins and Bristol. Victory over Saracens swept them all away and secured a place in the semi-finals. A defeat to Saracens and a win for any of Exeter, Harlequins and Bristol would knock Sale out of the top four. If it comes down to bonus points – or ties – then in terms of finishing level on points and tiebreakers…
If this all sounds a little negative considering how Sale could be knocked out of the play-offs, let's end on a positive note – they can still finish second. A win over Saracens and finishing level with the hosts on 56 points would have given Sale a tie-breaker on match wins (12 to 11), although they would have had to forfeit Saracens or try to claim a bonus point, as well as requiring Bath not to take the ball . two bonus points for the defeat to Northampton.
5. Exeter ChiefsFinal match: Leicester (g)
In a good position in terms of point difference and ready to strike if Sale lose to Saracens. Exeter are expected to beat Leicester given the Tigers have won one of their last six games, which was against the Newcastle Falcons.
Exeter could have finished third behind Bath if they had finished level on points thanks to more points. the match will be won if Bath lose at home to Northampton without any bonus points.
Matches pitting Bath and Sale against the league's top two on the final day will definitely benefit Exeter if they can hold on . your part of the deal.
6. Harlequins Final match: Bristol (h)
It's unlikely that Louis Lina's late attempt at a bonus point at Sandy Park ends up being decisive. He keeps Harlequins in the squad, but their points difference is abysmal, making catching Bath in third nearly impossible.
Sale can be overtaken on league points, but any tiebreakers will be troublesome given Harlequins. have two fewer wins than Sale and a worse points difference. But the real problem for Harlequins is Exeter's trip to struggling Leicester.
What if Sale lose to Saracens in the race for fourth place, with Exeter and Harlequins picking up bonus points and finishing on 55? Exeter will have an advantage over Harlequins if they win more matches.
It's a crazy outcome with Exeter and Harlequins finishing in the top four at the expense of Bath and Sale, but Harlequins will need wild difference in points. with Bath for this to happen, given that they are now -9, and Bath – +67.
7. Bristol Bears Final match: Harlequins (a)
Here are the positives: more wins than Harlequins and a very good points difference for all tiebreakers .
Ideally, Bristol want Sale and Exeter to lose while beating Harlequins at the Stupa. Here's how things would play out in a scenario where Bristol win but end up in a tiebreaker and finish in fourth place:
Harlequins and Bristol are essentially in penalty shootout.
Telegraph Sport expert forecast
Northampton lose in Bath but get two bonus points to finish first, Saracens beat Sale with a bonus point, Exeter beat Leicester with a bonus point, Harlequins beat Bristol with a bonus point. Exeter are fourth over Harlequins with the most match wins (11-10).
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