On the Moscow Exchange, for the second month in a row, there has been a decrease in the volume of foreign exchange trading and the number of transactions on them. At the same time, for the first time in several months, the share of transactions with the dollar increased, while the yuan retains leadership. Experts explain the situation by a decrease in the activity of individuals against the backdrop of reduced market volatility and increased sanctions risks.
According to Kommersant’s estimates, based on data from the Moscow Exchange, at the end of April, the total volume of trading in major currencies against the ruble in the “today” and “tomorrow” trading modes amounted to 6.7 trillion rubles. This is 6% below the July figure and the lowest result since January. As at the beginning of the year, the decrease in trading volumes could be due, among other things, to holidays, when the activity of large players is traditionally lower.
The most significant drop is observed in the “today” trading mode, the volume of which over the month decreased by 12.6%, to 4.7 trillion rubles, the minimum since April 2023.
The yuan fell the fastest, with trading volume down 15.4% over the month to RUB 2.4 trillion. As a result, the share of the Chinese currency decreased by 1.64 percentage points (pp), to 51.14%. Dollar trading volume decreased by less than 6%, to RUB 1.6 trillion, as a result, its share increased by 2.42 percentage points, to 33.8%. The share of transactions with euros decreased from 15.1% to almost 14.2%.
The situation is interesting because in all major currencies there is a noticeable drop in the number of transactions. Even without taking into account the last trading days of the month, which fell on holidays, on average less than 17 thousand transactions were made with the dollar every day — this is 23% less than the March figure and the minimum figure for 2.5 years of Kommersant’s observations. In January-February 2024, an average of about 90 thousand transactions were made.
The average number of transactions with euros decreased by 18%, to almost 10.2 thousand, which is comparable to the beginning 2022. 51.4 thousand transactions were made daily with the yuan, which is 22% lower than the previous month, but many times higher than the values two years ago (in January-February 2022, an average of 0.7 thousand transactions were made per day).
Market participants confirm the declining interest of private investors in operations on the foreign exchange market. This is facilitated by a decrease in volatility — the ruble to dollar exchange rate has remained stable for six months in the range of 88–94 rubles/$.
“Activity in the foreign exchange market, as a rule, directly depends on its volatility, the higher it is, the more transactions are made,” notes Igor Pimonov, head of the department of Internet broker “BCS World of Investments.”
The decrease in the number of transactions, especially with “toxic” currencies, is also facilitated by high sanctions risks: on December 22, 2023, US President Joe Biden signed a decree that gave the US Treasury the authority to punish foreign banks that violate sanctions against Russia.
“Against the backdrop of tightened American sanctions, Russian companies and individuals are experiencing problems with payments both in “toxic” currencies (dollars, euros) and with payments in the currencies of friendly countries (Chinese yuan, Turkish lira, etc.),” notes the chief analyst Sovcombank Mikhail Vasiliev.
Dmitry Lesnov, Head of the Client Service Development Department of the Finam Financial Group, draws attention to the fact that rumors in the market do not subside that the National Bank may be included in some next package of sanctions clearing center (NCC). Through NCC, a division of the exchange, settlements are carried out on transactions, including with the dollar and the euro.
Under the current conditions, market participants expect a further decrease in the activity of private investors in the foreign exchange market, especially in toxic ones currencies Dmitry Lesnov draws attention to the fact that in the summer, and even in May, there is traditionally a decrease in the activity of retail investors. In terms of friendly currencies, much will depend on how successful the visits of the Russian President to China and Turkey, which are expected in the coming months, will be. As a result of these meetings, according to Mikhail Vasiliev, the situation with payments with friendly countries may improve.
Свежие комментарии