The euro dropped below 96 rubles. for the first time since late January. The dollar fell to 88 rubles. The Russian currency traditionally strengthens towards the end of the month against the backdrop of the tax period. The peak of payments will be on May 28.
But there are other factors that support the ruble, including trade with China, says Valery Weisberg, director of the analytical department of the investment company Region: “The format of foreign trade cooperation with China is changing. Supplies from China remain at a reduced level, and a significant portion of goods are parallel imports. Payments are most likely made using the ruble, and not the foreign currency that we receive for exporting our resources to China. Therefore, to a large extent, this is the result of a large “cushion” of yuan that has accumulated over the past four to five months, which is not being spent.
The second point is that the ruble has overcome quite serious levels of resistance, so market mechanisms are already turning on here. Probably someone is already starting to play on the continuation of the strengthening. In this case, seasonality to a certain extent no longer plays a role. Rather, it is our idea of what the operations of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank will look like on the foreign exchange market with such low oil and a high ruble. It is likely that the regulator will sharply reduce foreign currency purchases under the budget rule in June, if they carry them out at all, rather than start selling them too.
That is, in this sense, the supply of currency is consolidated by the Central Bank. Mirroring last year's FWF operations and the fiscal rule will add liquidity to the foreign exchange market and, in principle, those who can now bet on further strengthening of the ruble certainly keep this in mind. And the Central Bank will not just remain a net seller of yuan, but may even significantly increase their supply to a level close to what we saw at the beginning of this year.”
The ruble is strengthening and against the backdrop of market expectations, its participants are waiting for a reduction in the key rate, noted private investment consultant Andrei Kochetkov: “There is always interest in OFZs, and this is a strengthening of the ruble, because the need for it is beginning to increase sharply. For now, of course, there is no talk of reducing the rate, because our dynamics with inflation are not very good.
But still, if you pay attention to bank deposits, the rates for short-term deposits are higher than for long-term periods, that is, after all, banks do not believe that the rate will last very long for a long time. And they are not ready to borrow the population’s money at a high interest rate for a year, two or three. Another factor is the high yield of OFZ, accordingly, money also comes to this market, and this always causes demand for the ruble.”
Analysts expect that the national currency will weaken in the coming weeks. SberInvestments predicted that by the end of the second quarter the dollar/ruble exchange rate could rise to 95 rubles. per dollar.
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