Climate changes affect the formation of destructive elements over the Atlantic
Climatologists have fears that conditions in 2024 will be very similar to 2005, when three destructive hurricanes were recorded. categories: “Katrina”, “Rita” and “Wilma”.
Experts say the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has an 85 percent chance of being more active than normal. Seventeen to 25 storms are forecast, with eight to 13 becoming hurricanes, including four to seven major hurricanes.
The forecast comes from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which also said there is a 5 percent chance of below-average activity.
Let us explain: the season lasts from June 1 to the end of November. Hurricanes rated Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale are classified as severe.
Forecasts call for record high sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic to continue, fueling storm development. Meanwhile, a transition to La Niña (lower sea temperatures in the equatorial Pacific) is expected in 2024, and NOAA suggests this could happen as early as June-August.
La Niña should reduce tropical wind shear, which means wind speed and direction change slightly with height — another factor that favors storm development.
2020 had the most named storms, but 2005 had more hurricanes — a year that brought three devastating Category 5 hurricanes: Katrina, Rita, and Wilma.
Recall that for 2023, NOAA raised its May forecast from 12-17 named storms to 14-21 in August. In total, there were 20 named storms, the fourth-largest since 1950.
This was unusual because it occurred during a strong El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean, which typically helps limit hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
Research suggests that the number of tropical cyclones worldwide is unlikely to increase due to climate change. However, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has said that a warmer world will likely increase rainfall and maximum wind speeds.
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