As in most constituencies, pressing local issues in Carshalton and Wallington reflect ills seen to be afflicting the nation as a whole. Photo: Julian Simmonds
Each week The Telegraph will take the temperature in key constituencies across the country, and the results could indicate how the country votes in July's elections. This week: Carshalton and Wallington
The self-proclaimed «centrist dads» who hang out in a cafe in Carshalton Park have one main goal: to remove the Conservatives from office.
With the seat of Carshalton and Wallington considered a two-horse contest between the Tories and the Lib Dems, they plan to achieve this goal by voting tactically — for the Lib Dems. «I'm a member of the Labor Party, but my priority is getting rid of the Tories,» says father-of-two Dylan Behagg, 38.
It is a priority shared by many others in this former Lib Dem stronghold, which fell to the Tories in 2019. Now he is back on the party's radar as they fight to get him back on July 4th. Given how little hesitation there will be to accept — and judging by the sentiment on the ground — such hopes seem far less crazy at this stage than any of their leader Ed Davey's crazy campaign stunts.
Why is this the leader's seat?
Carshalton and Wallington were held by the Lib Dems for more than two decades before turning blue — just — in 2019. The defeat of popular MP Tom Brake, who held the Lib Dem seat for 22 years, came amid his party's national campaign which was later described as a «high speed car crash» in an internal review. Their number has been reduced to just 11 MPs across the country. The then leader Jo Swinson promised to cancel Brexit, which undoubtedly did not play well in Leave-voting seats such as this, allowing Boris Johnson to capitalize on his promise to honor the result of the 2016 EU referendum.< /strong>However, the margin of defeat here was incredibly narrow, with just 629 votes separating the two parties. The Labor Party came in third with 12.4% support.
This means it would take a local swing of just 0.64 percentage points for the Lib Dems to regain their seat. The party's «obvious» goal is therefore to overthrow the July 4 election, polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice said. No other seat in the country would require such a small swing towards the Lib Dems for them to win it.
However, if the Tories manage to retain the seat, it could mean the party's projected destruction will be far less dramatic than the polls have consistently suggested. But that seems unlikely: a YouGov poll this week named Carshalton and Wallington among the three to six London seats the Lib Dems are predicted to win. (Neighboring Sutton and Cheam were another.) With the Tories facing a nationwide vote collapse amid deep disillusionment, a widespread sense that Britain is broken and a thirst for change, the chances of them holding on here, of all places, look slim. /p>
If Davie's party does win the seat back, local Lib Dem candidate Bobby Dean believes it will show they have expanded their support base beyond the richer, more «homogeneous» seats of southern England from the Blue Wall, which they predominantly target.< /p> 
For local Lib Dem candidate Bobby Dean, liberalism is “the opportunity and challenge of power, whether in in the hands of giant corporations or governments.» Photo: Julian Simmonds
“This place is more mixed,” he says. “She voted Leave [in the Brexit referendum].”
Yet, despite the very real prospect of knocking a Conservative brick out of the wall, there is no sign of a silent Labor agreement that would give the Lib Dems a free hand here. Instead, Labor Party insiders hope the contest could turn into a two-horse race between them and the Lib Dems this time around.
About the area
Wallington, mentioned in the Domesday Book, was once part of Surrey before being absorbed into south London along with its neighbor Carshalton in 1965.
Lavender has been grown in the area for hundreds of years and Carshalton retains a village atmosphere with its picturesque ponds dominated by the Grade II listed church. Its main street is home to several independent shops.
But there is both deprivation and affluence in the constituency. Wallington's main street, Woodcote Road, appears to have yet to suffer from suburban gentrification. A bustling artery dominated by chain stores including Iceland, KFC and Greggs, and traffic jams. «Unfortunately the town center is looking quite run down,» says retired local authority worker Sue Humphreys, 63. “I think it has become even more dilapidated. They could make The Square [shopping area] a little better. Looks a little dirty.”
But Elliot Colburn, the Conservative MP who won the seat at the last election, has a different view. He describes his constituency as an “undiscovered gem” that is not “overdeveloped.”
“It's a place where a lot of people traditionally come to start families. Many people have their “forever home” here, he says.
Conservative candidate Elliot Colburn describes himself as 'fairly socially liberal' Photo: Julian Simmonds Who are the candidates?
Colburn did not expect to become an MP at such a young age. He was born and raised here and was just 27 years old when he won in 2019. “I’m a poultry,” he says when we meet in the stylish Spilled Milk cafe on Carshalton High Street.
He left Carshalton, where he grew up in “one of the poorest areas” and attended a comprehensive school, to go to university. But he soon returned.
“I’m a little lost,” he says. «[But] I've always been interested in politics.»
Colburn, who describes himself as «quite socially liberal,» has openly clashed with his party over its «obsession» with trans issues. He happily reports that he was under desertion watch a couple of weeks ago, which confused him. “I don’t think I’m that much of a troublemaker!” He's laughing.
He has a tiger-like energy and admits he was pleasantly surprised by the reception he received on his doorstep. Despite the bleak national picture for his party, it gives him «quite confidence».
The thing about the Lib Dems, he says, is that “once they get in, it will be very difficult to remove them, but once they leave, it will be very difficult for them to come back. This reflects what we find on the doorstep.»
'On the doorstep, Colburn was often faced with complaints about crimes,' writes Silverman. Authors: Julian Simmonds.
Perhaps not surprisingly, Colburn's view differs markedly from that offered by Dean, a hopeful liberal Democrat.
Over a cup of tea in the cozy Greyhound Pub in Carshalton, he talks about the three types of voters he encounters: those who are “absolutely desperate for change and can’t wait to get rid of the Tories”; those who are generally tired of politicians and do not trust anyone; and those who may have always voted Tory before but don't know what to do this time. “I feel like most of them are going our way,” Dean says of this third group.
The 34-year-old is not a local boy: he grew up in a council house in Essex, the son of a scaffolding father and the cleaning mothers who still live inlocal government house and never voted. Dean was the first and so far only member of his family to attend university. After graduating, he pursued a career in international development, providing public relations consulting for propaganda campaigns. Why did he become a liberal democrat? “Liberalism appeals to me,” he says. “It's about opportunity and challenging power, whether it belongs to giant corporations or the government.”
Labor, for its part, is fielding freshman Hersh Tucker, who last year unsuccessfully contested a council seat in his home city of Leicester. Tracey Hague will run for the Green Party, while Elizabeth Cooper will run for Reform Britain.
Despite the threat of Tory reform nationally, Colburn is cautiously optimistic about the prospect of a vote shift in Cooper's favour. «This is not [Reform's] normal hunting ground,» he says. “I'm not saying I'm not worried, but I'm not quite at the point where my hair is falling out.”
View from Main Street
Clearly there is little to no sign of enthusiasm for the Conservatives here; What's less clear is that voters adore the Lib Dems and everything they stand for.
«Not Tory,» Humphreys says of his voting intentions. “We must thank Boris Johnson for this, for his parties. This was the icing on the cake.”
Or even a nail in the coffin. The metaphor of a person's choice matters less than the feelings behind it. In Wallington Square it would be difficult to find anyone beating drums for the incumbents. Humphreys thinks she will vote Lib Dem, as she has done in the past. «I can't accept Tory's actions.»
Joan Bridgewater, 59, her son's carer, sums it up at an outdoor table at Café Fresco. She usually votes Conservative, but is no longer sure that will be the case. Why? “State of the Country.”
Joanne Bridgewater, 59, usually votes Conservative but is no longer sure she will do so because of the «state of the country». By Julian Simmonds
Tony Graham, 70, a retired engineer and former Tory voter, plans to vote Lib Dem «because others can't keep their hands to themselves and keep stealing.»
He's worried about the cost of living. «They say prices have fallen, but prices don't fall, [Rishi] Sunak is talking rubbish,» says Graham. While he sympathizes with Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer, he is concerned that voting for the party here will be in vain. There is no such assessment of reform leader Nigel Farage, whom he calls an “idiot.”
In addition, there are self-proclaimed centrist fathers in Grove Park who will also support the candidate who is best placed to leave. Colburn. Behagg, a business analyst in the music industry, has found himself at odds with Starmer, whom he accuses of taking positions too similar to the Tories on areas such as immigration. “I’m a big fan of immigration,” he says. «My wife is Canadian.» Behagg doesn't think Rishi Sunak has «any real conviction» about his beliefs. Photo: Julian Simmonds
What does he think of Davey? “To be honest, I don’t know that much about him.” As for Sunak, he “really just fills the chair. I think he's the least worst person to do this right now.»
«But I don't feel like he has any real conviction,» Behagg says. «There's that cliché about rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.»
David Burgess, 38, a fundraising consultant and father of two, also plans to vote Lib Dem, although «I'm probably more closely linked to Labour.”
Burgess says issues of access to dentists, GPs and childcare are important to him . Photo: Julian Simmonds
Starmer, he said, is «better than the last five players we had in the top ten». But he doesn't like how the culture wars and immigration «seem to be allowed to define this election.» He also believes that the latter «has a positive impact on society.»
Anne Dodwell, 85, a retired social worker and veteran Lib Dem, is more concerned about climate change and «injustice towards the world's poor». than local problems such as garbage cans and traffic jams.
This, in her opinion, is “insignificant compared to the global problems we face.”
Anne Dodwell, 85, a veteran Lib Dem party, is concerned about climate change and «injustice towards the world's poor». Photo: Julian Simmonds
A great-grandmother who narrowly escaped with her life when a bomb fell on Carshalton High Street during the Second World War, Starmer would have been tempted had she not been “hard-bitten in life”. the woolly Lib Dems live where I live, where we have no chance of getting a Labor MP.»
What are the pressing local issues?
As in most constituencies, the pressing local issues reflect the woes which are believed to affect the nation as a whole.
Most people mention the future of the local hospital, St Helier, which has been in doubt for some time. This week Labor named it as one of six London hospitals it will rebuild as part of its plans to overhaul the NHS. The Conservatives also promised to upgrade existing facilities and build a new local hospital.
“To me, it's like parking for schools,” Behagg says. Burgess cites the availability of dentists, general practitioners and childcare.
Colburn frequently faces complaints of crime on its doorstep.
There are also concerns about the discharge of sewage into the River Wandle, the town's chalk stream that originates in Carshalton Ponds. «These are really energetic people,» says Dean, referring to the issue, not the sewer.
But there is one issue among voters that could prove detrimental to the Tories both locally and nationally. It's the vague but apparently widespread feeling that Dean talked about, that «nothing is working properly anymore.»
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