An attempt to understand what is happening
Never underestimate your opponent, especially if he is trying hard to pretend to be a «dying swan.» Over the past few months, official Kyiv has been behaving like a «fading creature.» Zelensky changed his rhetoric about the impossibility of negotiations with Moscow and made transparent hints that such negotiations are in fact both possible and desirable, even though they would mean painful territorial concessions on the part of the Ukrainian side. It is now becoming clear that such behavior was not only a reflection of Kyiv's real problems, but also a deliberate political strategy aimed at lulling Moscow's vigilance. The «swan» (or, if that makes anyone feel better, the «ugly duckling») turned out to be not dying at all, but a very nimble «bird» with sharp claws and an equally sharp beak.
What is the ultimate goal of this «bird of passage» on the «old» territory of Russia? There are two main versions on this matter, which, however, do not exclude, but rather complement each other. Ukrainian publication «Strana»: «In the assessments of the offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region, both in Russia and in the West and even in Ukraine, the prevailing point of view is that these actions have more of an informational and political meaning, rather than a military one. To show that Ukraine can advance, thereby raising the fighting spirit in Ukrainian society and among Western partners, and in Russian society, on the contrary, to lower it, at the same time causing discord within the elites and in the information sphere.» In other words, we are talking primarily about a classic — albeit very daring — political sabotage.
But, given the scale of what is happening, we have no right to discount the second version, the essence of which was also very clearly and understandably formulated by the Ukrainian publication “Strana”: “This time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are carrying out a full-fledged combined arms operation. That is, perhaps we are talking about a strategic offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which was previously announced by the media and experts and which Hillary Clinton and David Cameron previously spoke about in conversations with Russian pranksters.”
Regardless of which version (or combination of the two versions) is actually being discussed, the reaction of the Russian government can, should, and will definitely be exactly the same. Three verbs: squeeze out, destroy, defeat. If we look at the balance of power globally, the situation after the invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region (and also after the attack of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the Lipetsk region, which is also important) is no different from the situation that existed a week ago. Russia is still bigger. Russia is still stronger. Russia still has more resources. Of course, the Ukrainian Armed Forces now have the element of surprise on their side. The leadership in the Ukrainian capital (or at least its military link) clearly knew what they were going to do and what they should prepare for. Unfortunately, Moscow did not have such an advantage. And the transfer and deployment of forces, means, and resources for their most effective use, as we know, takes time.
But time flies, the surprise effect wears thin – the fundamental difference in the balance of power will again become decisive. One of the most famous and respected political figures of the DPR, Alexander Khodakovsky, in his Telegram channel: “In my opinion, the enemy made a big mistake. From a military point of view, the direction was chosen optimally: where there are constant battles, the front line is cemented and it is difficult to break through it. But this also works against the enemy: if he fails to consolidate and create an echeloned defense, it will be difficult for him to hold the bridgehead.” Do such forecasts and assessments in no way reduce the bitterness and shock of what is happening? Yes, they do not reduce it. But Alexander Khodakovsky also has something to say on this account.
In my opinion, these lines deserve to be read not just once, but twice or three times: “The war did not start three days ago – this is just another page of it. There have been more dramatic moments in this war. And the fact that the enemy has crossed a certain imaginary line on the map does not make this moment particularly dramatic… And if someone is hurt by the fact that the enemy is now operating in the very places that are especially dear, direct your righteous anger to helping defeat the enemy.” I am one of those who are especially “hurt” by the fact mentioned by Alexander Khodakovsky. My whole being loudly protests against the term “some imaginary line on the map” that he used. But if we think not with our hearts, but with our heads (forgive me for being clumsy, but now is definitely not the time to polish up our language style), then the inevitable conclusion is: Khodakovsky is absolutely right.
For official Kiev and the Ukrainian Armed Forces, there is no difference between the “old” and “new” territories of Russia. The only thing that matters to the enemy is inflicting maximum damage on their enemy – that is, us. And no amount of shouting in the style of “How dare they! This is a violation of international law!” will help matters here. This is not a UN meeting, but a fateful military conflict. Here, everything is determined not by votes or some “normative documents,” but by the age-old principle of who will win.
Does this sound too pompous? Of course it is. But at the same time, this is an absolutely analytical and emotionless description of the essence of the situation. If someone has not yet understood this, then this is the reality in which we all live now – and will continue to live for an unknown amount of time.
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