September 30: President Donald Trump at a rally in Duluth, Minnesota. Social distancing was not much in evidence though attendees wore masks
Credit: AP
Just a few days ago on the debate stage on Tuesday night Mr Trump was boasting of those events, defending his right to hold them — saying attendees wore masks — and mocking his Democratic rival Joe Biden for not having the support to be able to put on such a gathering.
Those will grind to a halt now. Will we see another such event before election day on November 3? At a time when Mr Trump is behind in the opinion polls and needs to make up ground, the power cord has just been yanked out of his campaign.
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Then there is the question of what issues this election is being fought on. A clear majority of the public, polls have consistently shown in recent months, disapprove of Mr Trump’s handling of the pandemic.
That is no small thing. More than seven million people in America have tested positive for the virus and more than 200,000 have died from it. The pandemic and who is best to handle its fallout is a huge question in this election.
It explains why Mr Biden at every turn has tried to make voters ask themselves this: Which candidate do you want fighting the pandemic? His team believes strongly if Americans think about that when filling in their ballot, he wins.
The president has been reaching for and elevating other topics: The need to establish “law and order” in US cities after anti-racism protests erupted this year, the threat from “cancel culture” and, most recently, the need to fill the empty Supreme Court seat.
But this puts the focus right back on Covid-19. The questions coming may be uncomfortable ones for the president. Why did he hold rallies of more than a thousand people at a time when his own administration urges social distancing?
Mr Trump has been stressing the need for businesses to reopen, putting an emphasis on the economy — one of the areas he still leads Mr Biden on — and drawing a distinction with his rival’s focus on containing the virus’s spread. He did that again at the debate.
The president’s positive test is a reminder, like a bolt from the blue, of the danger that still lurks, however important the need to get the economy back up and running again.
It too will shove into focus the times Mr Trump has downplayed the dangers: his early comparison that the virus was like the flu; his hope it would simply go away in the hot weather; his initial reluctance to wear a face mask (and continued scepticism); his calls for states to “liberate” from lockdowns’; his freelancing on possible treatments, most notably injecting disinfectant, and his repeated fights with his top health officials.
These are not the issues Mr Trump wants top of mind for voters.
Then there are more speculative questions, ones for which it is hard to immediately see an answer but that could have untold impacts on the remaining race.
Will the next presidential debate go ahead in person? It is scheduled for October 15 in Miami, Florida — so almost exactly at the end of the two weeks usually taken for self-isolation.
It was due to have voters in attendance asking questions, a ‘town hall’ format. At the first debate all attendees had Covid-19 tests. Will organisers still push ahead with this debate? If not, what political impact will that bring?
There is also the small question of running the country. Early intentions from the White House are that Mr Trump plans to continue working from self-isolation.
We only need to look at Boris Johnson’s experience of battling Covid-19, which put him in intensive care, to know how unpredictable the days ahead can be for a world leader in such a position.
There is a structure in government for what happens should Mr Trump need to step back, with Mike Pence, the US vice president, standing ready. But if Mr Trump gets very sick it could even raise questions about whether he should remain on the ballot for next month’s election.
One other question jumps out too. In moments of grave peril, Americans tend to rally round their president. Mr Trump saw his approval rating rise to its highest point since the early weeks of his presidency after the coronavirus outbreak first hit.
Who is to say something similar could not happen again?
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