Why Millions of Drivers Persistently Drive Old, Reliable Cars

The growing number of old cars on the roads is affecting UK health, government zero targets and road safety. Credit: Purple Pilchards/Alamy Stock Photo

Cars on British roads are getting older and older as plans to achieve zero emissions leave drivers worried about what new cars to buy.

About 5, 3 million vehicles in 15 years are old or old, according to Auto Trader Auto Market data, up from 1.7 million in 2001. By 2032, this number should rise to 9.3 million.

Cars are aging in part due to production cuts that began during the pandemic and are only now starting to run out. Problems with production have driven up prices and encouraged motorists to keep their cars longer than they otherwise would.

However, many are still reluctant to trade them in, even as more models hit the market.

< p>Rising electricity prices and falling gasoline prices have left many motorists hesitant to buy battery-powered vehicles.

Meanwhile, the impending ban on sales of new gasoline and diesel vehicles from 2030 has left others wondering whether buy another non-electric car.

0605 Sales have not recovered from the pandemic

The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) reported last week that sales of all vehicles to individual drivers fell 5.5% last month.

As a result, more and more old cars are on the roads, with consequences for the health of the British. , government net zero targets and road safety.

The British car fleet is «probably the oldest ever in the UK,» says Jim Sucker, automotive expert and emeritus professor at Loughborough University.

Ian Plummer, Chief Commercial Officer of Auto Trader, said: «An estimated 2 million new vehicles have been taken off the market due to COVID-19, meaning that approximately 40% of vehicles on the road will be over 10 years old over the next five years.»

But drivers seem to be reluctant to switch to expensive new gasoline and diesel cars or electric vehicles (EV ).

Instead, drivers are choosing used and older models.

Plummer says: “The sheer shortage of cars, combined with the practical need for drivers to stay on the road, is pushing prices up.

“As long as this market dynamics continues, drivers will have to get used to paying more for older cars and we expect prices to remain high for some time to come.”

Older cars can pose a number of risks for both drivers, and for passengers.

Even though stringent safety standards have been in place for decades, there will be more cars in the old fleet without the latest features like brake assist, lane assist and other semi-autonomous features.

This also means dirtier cars stay on the road longer.

Most of the aging cars that are still on the road today run on diesel and gasoline engines. Other than the Toyota Prius, there were few hybrids over 10 years ago.

0605 Share of cars on UK roads by fuel type

Pollution kills between 28,000 and 36,000 Brits a year, the government estimates, and it looks to tackle diseases caused by nitrogen dioxide (NOx) and so-called fine particulate matter — a lot of it is car soot — by 2025 it will cost the NHS £1.6 billion.

About a third of NOx emissions and an eighth of fine particles come from road transport.

Older cars also require more maintenance than newer models. This is bad news for drivers as the cost of repairs has skyrocketed during the cost of living crisis.

Professor Sucker says, «The problem is that the cost of repairs is going up, and so you're getting into a situation where people are, and then wondering if we can afford to do it?»

Graham Stapleton, chief executive of Halfords, says: “While car reliability has improved in recent years, the reality is that older cars are more prone to breakdowns, require higher maintenance costs and are more polluting.

“This poses a risk to road safety, adds another financial burden to motorists and undermines the UK's emission reduction targets.”

Drivers have few other viable options. Electricity prices jumped to record highs after Russia's war with Ukraine, which led to a sharp increase in energy prices.

Although wholesale prices are down from their peak last summer, electricity is still more than double the price. years ago, making mileage savings on electric vehicles less than they used to be.

As a result, demand for electric vehicles remains uncertain. While electric vehicle sales rose 59 percent last month, manufacturers now believe battery-powered vehicles will account for 18.4 percent of sales this year, up from 19.7 percent previously.

0605 Sales of electric vehicles are growing

So far, EV sales have been supported by company car buyers and the wealthy, Mr Sacker said.

What happens when these buyers meet their needs? Will the average family really be spending the extra money on battery-powered cars that cost around £10,000 more than their petrol and diesel equivalents?

If not, expect more rusty buckets on British roads. Based on current trends, by 2028 a record 15.4 million vehicles will be over 10 years old, according to AutoTrader projections, an increase of 3.6 million from 2021.

This would be a major roadblock. to zero government goals. Almost a quarter of the UK's greenhouse gas emissions come from transport, and more than half from cars.

Mike Howes, CEO of SMMT, says: «If we want to decarbonize road transport, we need to speed up fleet renewal, so a healthy car market where consumers can confidently replace their older models with the latest low-emission, zero-emission vehicles is vital.» .

The industry is optimistic. Manufacturers believe there is a tipping point where regular drivers are switching to wholesale EVs as they trade in old fireworks.

Cheaper charging — when it comes — and the desire to buy a fancy new car rather than being burdened by many believe that an unsightly pile of rust would save the day. Elon Musk's Tesla recently launched a price war in the sector, which is also expected to attract more buyers.

Finally, EV prices are likely to fall over time as production increases and supply chain investment begins. to pay off.

Mr Howes says: «After two difficult years of the pandemic and subsequent supply problems that have limited availability, new car registrations are on the rise again, so the average age of cars in the UK should start to decline.»