Britons are now dying of coronavirus at the same rate as French counterparts, Telegraph analysis has found, as the UK government faces calls to follow France in imposing a second national lockdown.
Each day there are about 2.4 deaths from Covid-19 per million people in the UK, the latest data shows, only slightly less than the rate in France, which stands at 2.6.
President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday announced that France would enter a second national lockdown, with citizens only allowed to leave home for essential work and medical reasons. Non-essential businesses, such as restaurants and bars, are also being forced to close.
In the UK today a government adviser has warned that a similar national lockdown to those in Europe is needed to curb the spread of Covid-19.
Steven Riley, professor of infectious disease dynamics at Imperial College London, said the data from the React coronavirus study suggests "we need to think about changing the approach".
"We’re getting to the stage where we have to see prevalence go down," he said.
"I think what our study shows is there would be genuine benefits to some kind of national policy. In that we could prevent the pattern in the south turning into the current pattern in the north and bring about a reversal in the north as quickly as possible.
"If we’re going to end up using those restrictions that have been brought in elsewhere in Europe today and yesterday, we should think about timing — and sooner is better than later."
How the UK compares to Europe
The UK is by no means the worst hit country in Europe right now when it comes to reported infections of Covid-19, yet it is also in a worse situation than a substantial number of nations.
Around 223 new cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 were announced in the UK in the week leading up to October 26. That is far less than the large number of cases announced in Belgium, which has the highest rate in Europe currently, standing at 836 in the same period.
How cases in the UK compare to Europe
It is also below but closer to France and Spain, which have 370 and 265 cases respectively — and these weekly figures are also increasing in these three countries faster than in the UK.
New UK cases per 100,000 increased by 48 week-on-week in the same period, compared to 220 in Belgium, 122 in France and 82 in Spain.
But Germany, which on Wednesday announced an emergency lockdown an emergency lockdown including the closure of restaurants, gyms and theatres, has a smaller case rate, at 85 per 100,000 up to October 26. Infections are also not increasing as rapidly as the UK, seeing only a rise of 37 week-on-week.
However, with testing ramping up to different degrees across the continent, reported cases do not always offer the clearest picture as to which countries are suffering the most during the coronavirus pandemic.
Hospitalisations for Covid-19 — evidence of growing severe cases — are again at their worst in Belgium, according to data from ECDC. The country had over 30 people in hospital for coronavirus per 100,000 as of October 23, with this rate doubling in the space of a week.
How the UK compares on hospitalisations
France is the 3rd worst, with 23 people in hospital per 100,000, while Italy is 5th, at 19. The UK, on the other hand is 11th, with the country’s hospital occupancy of 12 per 100,000 below the average of 14 for the 18 for which the ECDC provides hospital data for.
More worrying when examining the UK’s position is the rate of recorded deaths from Covid-19.
Deaths in Europe compared
Spain had been one of the first major European countries hit by the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic, with deaths beginning to rise again during the tail end of summer. By mid-September the country had just over one death per million, and this continued to climb, reaching over two deaths per million by the beginning of October.
The country has now been overtaken by Belgium, which saw a sharp increase in deaths that began at the end of September. Over four people per million are now dying each day in Belgium, compared to 3 per million in now Spain.
Germany is withstanding the second wave to a better degree in terms of deaths. Fewer than one person per million are dying in the country from coronavirus each day, but the rate has now begun to tick up.
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