Election speculation as Treasury considers early Budget

Speculation is growing that Rishi Sunak may decide to call the next election in the spring. Photo: Victoria Jones/PA

Senior Treasury figures have discussed the possibility of passing an early budget in February next year, adding to speculation that a snap general election could be held in the spring.

By pushing back the usual budget date is being held in March, will give more time for any tax cuts to improve voters' financial situation before they go to the ballot box.

The start of discussions comes amid growing speculation that Rishi Sunak could decide to call the next election in the spring rather than in the autumn.

February is the earliest the next financial report could be published, as the Office of the Budget responsibility that makes the forecasts must be given at least 10 weeks' notice.

On Thursday evening, a Treasury source played down the prospect, insisting Chancellor Jeremy Hunt was planning the Budget. in March “as usual.”

Some political observers say a snap election has been made more likely by Wednesday's Autumn Statement, which included £20 billion in tax cuts.

George Osborne, the former chancellor, said Mr Hunt was «opening the door» to an election in May but was «unlikely» to get through.

Mr Hunt has timed his biggest tax measure — a 2p cut in the basic national insurance rate — to come into force on January 6 rather than the start of the financial year in April. That means people will feel the financial benefits of tax cuts in months rather than weeks if elections are called in the spring of 2024.

Conservatives hope tax cuts ahead of the election will help persuade voters to do so . give them another term in office.

But on Thursday, a think tank analysis revealed the scale of tax hikes following the 2019 election. Taxes have risen by £90 billion since 2019, eclipsing Wednesday's cut.

It has been revealed that Isaac Levido, the Conservatives' 2019 campaign manager, will take on the same role at the next election , plans to join Conservative campaign headquarters full-time from January and will therefore be present at any early elections.

However, former Tory campaign managers joined permanently much earlier than a year before the vote, suggesting that joining in January for the autumn election would not be unusual.

Multiple Conservative sources point to Labour's huge lead over the Conservatives in the average opinion poll (20 percentage points) is evidence that a spring election is unlikely.

Many Conservative MPs are still privately predicting that autumn will be the most likely election date — the same message being conveyed by government officials involved in campaign planning.< /p>

Since 1950, almost no ruling party has called early elections and won, trailing in opinion polls, a Resolution Foundation analysis released Thursday showed. The only exceptions were 1992 and 1955, when the ruling party was only a few percentage points behind in the polls.

Mr Hunt said he had not discussed a snap election with Mr Sunak. Sir Keir Starmer, leader of the Labor Party, said his party is ready for an election if one is called.

The Prime Minister has the power to decide when to call a general election, within a certain time frame. The next elections must take place no later than January 2025.