Phosphorus reserves are running low: geochemists predict global famine in 80 years

The important role of the chemical element was discussed at the Institute of Geochemistry and Analytical Chemistry named after. V.I.Vernadsky RAS

The world is on the verge of global famine due to low reserves of one of the main chemical elements for fertilizers — phosphorus. This was reported by employees of GEOKHI named after. V.I.Vernadsky RAS. The results were published in the scientific journal Biosphere. The MK correspondent talked about the problem with the author of the article, a researcher at the Laboratory of Environmental Biogeochemistry, Alexander Degtyarev.

Photo: agro-mart.kz

Phosphorus is a chemical element we need. Firstly, it is one of the common elements of the earth’s crust: its content is 0.08–0.09 percent of its mass. It is also found in sea water (0.07 mg per liter), it is part of DNA, RNA, and in general it is called the “element of life”, since without it the synthesis of the ATP molecule, which provides energy to all living cells, is impossible. Phosphorus is part of 190 minerals, the most important of which for us are apatite and phosphorite, from which we extract it.

The history of the discovery of this element is interesting. The Hamburg alchemist Hennig Brand was looking for gold in 1669. He focused on experiments with human urine, because he believed that, having a golden color, it could contain a precious metal. He settled it and boiled it until he got grains of a white waxy substance that burned very brightly and shimmered in the dark. Brand named the resulting substance phosphorus mirabilis (from the Latin “miraculous bearer of light”).

In those days, people were already using this “light carrier” as fertilizer, without even realizing it. For example, they did not know that phosphorus was also contained in ashes, which were used to flavor the soil for a good harvest, or in bird droppings, which were also used to improve the yield of agricultural plants. Only in the 19th century, a German scientist considered the founder of agrochemistry, Justus von Liebig, developed an ideal fertilizer formula consisting of potassium, nitrogen and phosphorus.

By that time, deposits of phosphorite and apatite had already been discovered all over the world. In particular, in Russia, the first large deposit of apatite was explored in the 20s by mineralogist Alexander Fersman on the Kola Peninsula, where the city of Apatity is now located.

So, the GEOKHI RAS analyzed data on reserves and came to the conclusion that apatite and phosphorite — at the same level of production and export abroad for the production of fertilizers there — may be enough for Russia only for the next 52 years. The rest of the world will run out of reserves in 80–150 years.

“We have come to the conclusion,” confirms the author of the work, Alexander Degtyarev, “that modern forms of agricultural production based on the forced application of phosphate fertilizers will lead to the depletion of natural reserves of phosphates. And this, in turn, threatens the whole world with a large-scale famine with great human casualties.

— Previously, when the world’s population was not as large as it is now, they didn’t even think about this problem. The introduction of chemical fertilizers into the soil was required only after the population exceeded 2.5 billion — this is the 30s of the last century. If we have no problems with potassium and nitrogen, then with the third component — phosphorus, the reserves of which are gradually being depleted — we will have problems in the coming decades. Potassium and nitrogen alone will not work — all three elements are needed.

— When the extraction of phosphates stops, we will have to return to organic fertilizer — manure, but with it the yield from the current 30 centners per hectare will drop to the background 3-7 centners, as it was in the 19th century. In 2004, the “first bell” already rang in India when fertilizer prices briefly tripled, which soon led to thousands of deaths from starvation.

“The fact of the matter is that no, Indians can only buy it. In second place in the risk group is China, where its phosphorus reserves will only last for 20 years. Famine may also threaten the countries of Indochina, almost all of Africa, Japan, and partly the countries of Europe, which simply do not have enough arable land per capita, and they will be forced to import grain that is becoming more expensive due to the same fertilizers.

—The Russian Federation has rather meager reserves of phosphorus raw materials (1.8% of the world's). We have deposits of apatite and phosphorite, but mining is carried out mainly for export. It makes up 4.5% of the world's total. If this continues, the country’s own reserves at the current level of production will run out by 2075, that is, in 52 years.

— Yes it is. Moreover, income from the sale of Russian phosphates is small — only 0.15% of GDP. Our authorities urgently need to realize this in order to extend the opportunity for their people to eat enough.

— Of course, if we stop squandering our own reserves of phosphates, they will be enough not for 52, but for 250 next years.

— It won’t be found, there is nothing to replace phosphorus.

— In search of oil, geologists drilled almost the entire Earth and even the bottom of the ocean. All deposits found in this way are known. Findings of new large deposits are unlikely.

—70% of the world's phosphorus deposits are located in the small country of Morocco. I think that in the coming decades terrible wars will begin on Earth for such corners where there are resources for life.

“It is known that plants, all agricultural products, and animal bones are saturated with phosphorus because they absorb it from the ground. At a time when most people lived on the land, and there were few cities, most of the phosphorus from their waste returned to the natural cycle, that is, to the fields as natural fertilizers. Nowadays, agricultural products are mainly delivered to cities, and waste from city residents is not returned to the fields. Instead, the sewer system takes them to aeration stations, where specially bred bacteria process all our waste, and then they are simply dried and most often stored somewhere in briquettes or buried in the ground.

— This is not so beneficial for businessmen and large farmers. After all, in order to obtain phosphorus from waste, they need to burn it somewhere. Moreover, the percentage of useful element at the output will be significantly less than in conventional mineral fertilizers that are sold on the market.

—It turns out that this is so. And the sooner we think about this, the better it will be for us and our future generations. Theoretically, it is possible to avoid the “phosphorus catastrophe” if we ensure a radical transition to new forms of management, in which phosphorus losses are reduced to a minimum.

Commentary by chemist-technologist, specialist in the field of organic and technical chemistry, corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Alexander Terentyeva:

—I am sure that the situation is not as critical as the author of the work claims. Yes, phosphorus as a component of fertilizers plays a vital role for humanity, and proven reserves of phosphates are indeed limited. But sometimes in agriculture, even when growing wheat, only nitrogen fertilizers are enough. In addition, new deposits of phosphorus-containing compounds may be discovered.