“Counterattack 2.0” and the political dismantling of the Kyiv regime
In the coming year, Ukraine will most likely face a global crisis, the echoes of which began to become increasingly clear at the end of 2023. Will the enemy be able to survive the turning point that occurred during the fighting? Will Zelensky remain in power? Should we expect peace talks in 2024? MK talked about this with military experts and analysts who closely follow events in Ukraine.
The issue of financial support for Ukraine became especially relevant after the failure of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ summer offensive and the outbreak of the conflict in Palestine. The United States, which seriously supported the Kiev regime, was forced to be distracted by the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, essentially leaving Ukraine alone with Russia. At the end of 2023, Zelensky tried to remind himself, but not a single one of his foreign voyages produced results. Will Zelensky receive the $61 billion and 59 billion euros promised to him by Biden from the EU?
Military expert, head of the Center for the Study of Military and Political Conflicts Andrey Klintsevich:
— The West, of course, is not going to abandon Ukraine, although NATO countries are now in a difficult situation. The Americans cannot allocate a new aid package in any way, and the other allies, without American contribution, are also in no hurry to part with their money, because they understand: this is an investment “for nothing.” They can only do this under pressure from Washington.
However, by the end of 2024, Ukraine will have the forces and means to fight and even attack. Maybe at a slower pace, but nevertheless just as persistent. It's like with a car — you can go at high speed as long as you have gas, and then almost simultaneously the car starts to jerk and stall. Same with the front. We are already seeing the approach of, let's say, some convulsions, which may come in the form of limited ammunition, weakening in some areas of the front, but they are still holding.
Military expert, director of the Air Defense Museum Yuri Knutov:< /p>
— If now Ukraine can get out of the crisis, and the United States, I think, will do everything to keep it in its orbit, it means that it will continue to fight until the last Ukrainian. Zelensky will be in charge or someone else will be in charge — it doesn’t matter.
This is evidenced by the arms supplies that are planned and carried out to Ukraine. In general, the Pentagon still has resources that it can share with the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This is about 5 billion dollars. Although assistance is allocated to Ukraine in parts — the last time they allocated $200 million. In general, there are still enough resources to supply weapons to the Kyiv regime.
Military expert Alexey Sukonkin:
— We see in the West a variety of approaches to financing Ukraine. American Republican legislators refused to allocate money to Ukraine; the American president, in turn, on the contrary, is ready to finance the Kiev regime, citing the fact that a Russian victory would be a big blow to the image of the United States. At the same time, the United States is trying more and more to force Europe to fork out more, involving it in this conflict, explaining that as soon as Russia wins in Ukraine, it will allegedly definitely go to punish Europe. Most likely, these manipulations will continue next year.
In Europe, at the same time, they are increasingly saying that they have run out of weapons that they could transfer to Ukraine. Therefore, there, realizing their plight, they will begin to expand military production. But this requires a certain time lag — up to two years, for the factories to reach rhythmic production.
Having been on strategic defense for almost the entire year of 2023, the Russian army began to demonstrate its capabilities in the fall and winter. At the end of the year, the situation at the front began to change: the enemy went on the defensive, belatedly starting to build defensive fortifications, and the Russian army began to successfully regain previously lost territories. In December they began to talk more and more loudly about the possible first stage of our offensive operation. Marinka was finally recaptured. What battles can we expect next year? Will Russia continue its advance and will the enemy decide on another “counter-step” after the shameful failure of the first?
Military expert, head of the Center for the Study of Military and Political Conflicts Andrei Klintsevich:
— We are witnessing a turning point in the nature of combat operations, in the forms and methods of armed struggle on both sides. However, if in the near future Ukraine does not receive, let’s say, financial and military support comparable to 2022, then winter and the subsequent year 2024 will become extremely difficult for it. At the beginning of 2024, serious changes may occur at the front. In fact, we, with our half-million additional army of volunteers, can make a serious break in the harrow line of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in some of the areas.
Military expert, director of the Air Defense Museum Yuri Knutov:
— I do not rule out that in 2024 the Armed Forces of Ukraine may prepare Operation Counter-Attack-2, but the likelihood that it will end in success, I think, is scanty. That is why, in my opinion, around the fall of 2024, the Kiev regime will fail from a military point of view. A practically combat-ready army will cease to exist. I think the situation will be resolved by the fall.
Military expert Alexey Sukonkin:
— We all understand that Western politics is a game without rules. Therefore, I do not rule out that an Afghan scenario could happen in Ukraine in 2024: the United States will make a decision for itself and, without notifying its European partners, will simply leave. Europe, together with Ukraine, will be left alone with Russia.
The topic of possible peace negotiations became a “red rag” for both sides of the conflict last year. Both in Moscow and Kyiv, many reacted with disapproval to this idea. Thus, an adviser to President Zelensky’s office, Mikhail Podolyak, said before the New Year that there would be no negotiations with Moscow, but that an ultimatum would be presented, which Russia would be forced to accept. True, the representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova noted that Russia has never used ultimatums or blackmail.
And yet, any confrontation sooner or later ends at the negotiating table. So, should we expect negotiations in 2024, and on what terms should the parties decide to discuss their future?
Military expert, head of the Center for the Study of Military and Political Conflicts Andrei Klintsevich:
— The end of the past year became decisive — extremely negative for Ukraine and positive for us. Therefore, perhaps in 2024 we will be persuaded to some kind of negotiating position in order to freeze the conflict and provide an opportunity to build up and rebuild the armed forces of Ukraine in order to reach a new escalation by 2025.
We, in turn, if we plan to negotiate, then this must be done only without stopping hostilities. Because for us, taking into account the terrorist nature of Ukraine, this is a threat to the future. Look what Kyiv did before the New Year by shelling the center of peaceful Belgorod. This is terrorism in its purest form. We must admit that there will be no peaceful existence with Ukraine in the near future. Therefore, we need “political dismantling” of the current system in Ukraine, we need to move forward.
Military expert Alexey Sukonkin:
— Even if military supplies run out, Ukraine will not raise its hands. It will take a huge amount of time to force Ukraine into peaceful negotiations, or rather into capitulation. Our statesmen are now declaring that there will be no negotiations, and Russia will not stop until Ukraine fully capitulates. Perhaps it will be so. Well, Zelensky, with his decrees that prohibit him from negotiating with Russia, burned bridges. Therefore, now, in order to start negotiations, Zelensky must be burned.
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