Even as Tropical Cyclone Lucas bears down on New Caledonia, the French Pacific dependency also faces a political storm, with the collapse of the multi-party government led by President Thierry Santa.
Five members of the government, representing the pro-independence groups UC-FLNKS and the Union nationale pour l’indépendance (UNI) resigned on 2 February. Both groups are members of the Front de libération nationale kanak et socialiste (FLNKS), which campaigns for independence from France.
The resignations come at a crucial time, as the government debates its budget and the future of nickel mining and smelting, with the islands holding nearly a quarter of the world’s reserves of the critically strategic mineral.
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Announcing the resignations, Louis Mapou (UNI) and Pierre Chanel Tein Tutugoro (UC-FLNKS) said: “Throughout 2020, New Caledonia has traversed a deep internal crisis. This is tied to the social and economic conditions that have built up over many years, uncertainty over the political future – accentuated by the absence of constructive dialogue with the French state to prepare for the next referendum – and the Covid-19 crisis which has had significant impacts since March 2020.
“In this difficult period, the government found it difficult to work in collegiality.
“There is a crisis of confidence at the very moment we should calmly be preparing our future. The institutional process has broken down, and consensus has become less and less the norm. Discussions between New Caledonia’s political groups and the French state have been interrupted.”
Santa, the outgoing president and a leader of the anti-independence coalition Avenir en confiance (AeC), expressed his concern about destabilisation of New Caledonia’s economy and politics in coming weeks: “I’m worried for New Caledonia and New Caledonians.”
A statement from AeC condemned the resignations.
“This inconsistent, irresponsible and dangerous decision is part of the scorched earth policy of the independence movement for several months, whose sole purpose is to destroy, and to directly threaten the jobs and daily life of thousands of New Caledonian families.
“By triggering a political crisis in the midst of managing the health crisis, a possible budgetary crisis and severe economic and social tensions, the independence movement poses an immense risk to all of New Caledonia.”
Under the Noumea accord – a 1998 agreement between the French state and supporters and opponents of independence – New Caledonia is governed by a collegial, multi-party government. Any minister who resigns must be replaced by a member of the same parliamentary group.
If no successor is nominated the government loses office and congress must choose 11 new members, who in turn elect a new president.
The crisis in the Santa government comes at a critical time. In two referendums on self-determination in 2018 and 2020, New Caledonians have narrowly decided to remain within the French Republic.
But each vote has seen increased support for independence and next April the Congress can decide whether to proceed to a third referendum in 2022.
The Santa government has failed to manage disputes over the nickel industry and the proposed sale of Vale Nouvelle-Calédonie.
The local subsidiary of the Brazilian mining corporation Vale has managed the Goro nickel smelter in New Caledonia’s southern province, but is selling its assets after years of losses and conflict with indigenous Kanak communities.
After widespread protests and rioting in 2020, the collapse of the Santa government will delay the proposed sale to a new consortium led by the Swiss financier Trafigura – a sale determinedly opposed by the independence movement and Kanak customary leaders.
New Caledonia’s 54-member Congress has two weeks to choose new members of the government from the four main parliamentary groups: the conservative Avenir en Confiance coalition; another anti-independence party, Calédonie ensemble; and the two independence groups, UNI and UC-FLNKS and Nationalists.
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The small party Eveil Océanien (EO), with three seats in Congress and a minister in the outgoing government, holds the key.
Led by Milakulo Tukumuli, EO draws support from the Wallisian, Futunan and Tahitian communities, which have historically supported anti-independence parties. However a new generation are more open to engagement with the FLNKS and in 2020 the three EO Congress members formally joined the UC-FLNKS and Nationalists parliamentary group.
EO’s leaders will meet this weekend and hold discussions with the FLNKS, to determine their next steps. With one representative in the next government, EO could swing its vote to the FLNKS.
Under this “islander majority” New Caledonia could be led by a pro-independence president for the first time in nearly 40 years.
Cyclone Lucas is a category 2 cyclone set to hit New Caledonia’s Loyalty Islands on Wednesday.
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