Nearly 2 million more people in England will be asked to shield and 800,000 of those offered priority vaccination as a result of new modelling that has identified adults at higher risk from Covid-19 because of a combination of health factors and their circumstances, including ethnicity and low income.
Until now the NHS identified those most at risk on the basis usually of a single underlying health condition, such as specific cancers, together with age. But a more sophisticated modelling tool developed by the University of Oxford has shown that the shielding list should nearly double, adding 1.7 million people on the basis of multiple risk factors.
Among the issues the model takes into account are ethnicity and postcode, which will give a measure of economic deprivation. There have been higher rates of death among people from black, ethnic minority and Asian communities and also people from poorer neighbourhoods with cramped housing. Body mass index will also be factored in, because obesity is known to increase the risk of severe illness.
All those newly identified will get a letter from their GP suggesting they shield until at least 31 March, which is later than the current date of 21 February. The majority have already been vaccinated, because of their age or a particular health problem. But the rest will now be prioritised as part of the group with underlying health conditions who are being called up.
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