David Martin abandoned the oil heating system in his triple bungalow in rural West Wales three years ago. Instead, the 74-year-old widower installed a heat pump and solar panels and never looked back.
He says his 2022 electricity bill was £347 when you factor in the sale of electricity from his solar panels, and his bungalow 'never got cold'.
Hundreds of miles to the east, near Peterborough, Sarah Hawks, 70, had a very different experience with a heat pump she installed in 2018.
“In prolonged cold weather, the mine freezes the ice and stops the blades. from the turn,” she says.
These two households are pioneering a growing shift up and down the country as the net zero push reaches home.
Over the next few decades, some 23 million British homes will be asked to ditch gas-fired boilers in favor of a cleaner alternative as the UK tries to cut carbon emissions to zero by 2050.
Which will replace them has been the subject of fierce debate, with industry divided on the pros and cons of the favorites, hydrogen or heat pumps.
Recent developments have seen heat pumps gaining popularity, and hydrogen is far from being used in people's homes.
Hydrogen-ready boilers are not yet on the market, and a growing body of research is raising questions about its usefulness for mass heating.
As the future of heating begins to take shape, is the potential role of hydrogen diminishing? And what does this mean for households wanting to ditch gas boilers?
“I think heat pumps are definitely in the box,” says Guy Newey, chief executive of the government-backed Energy Systems Catapult, “but the challenges still remain.”
“We need to make sure that whatever technology is installed in people's homes, people want it and welcome it. Consumers have the power to veto zero.”
Home heating in the UK is a major source of carbon emissions, accounting for about 14% of the country's carbon footprint.
However, none of the potential replacements for gas-fired boilers is without problems at the system-wide level.
Heat pumps are very efficient, taking heat from the outside air to produce more energy than they use to operate.
They are powered by electricity, much of which in the future will come from green sources such as wind and sun.
However, this increases the load on the network, which will already be trying to cope with increased demand from electric vehicles.
How heat pumps work
Studies show that heat pumps are more than twice the annual household electricity consumption, and they will exacerbate demand spikes during peak hours.
The government is considering introducing short random delays when appliances, including heat pumps, turn on, to reduce the load on the electrical network.
On the other hand, hydrogen, which produces no carbon emissions when burned, can be produced at any time, transported through the existing gas network and used by the consumer in the same way as natural gas.
Gas is currently expensive and difficult to produce cleanly, but potentially consumes huge amounts of clean electricity.
Many experts believe that eventually priority will be given to areas where there are no other options for reducing carbon emissions, such as some heavy industries.
Dr Jan Rosenow, an energy efficiency expert at the University of Sussex, recently reviewed 32 «independent» studies and says they show hydrogen for home heating is less economical and efficient than heat pumps and other sources.
He says that “heating a home with hydrogen requires about five times the amount of electricity than heating the same home with an efficient heat pump, either alone or as part of a district heating supply.”
In an article published in September, he added: «Despite the considerable attention paid to hydrogen heating, independent evidence does not support the widespread use of hydrogen for space heating and hot water.»
Meanwhile, households are starting to use heat pumps. Over 40,000 gas boilers were installed last year, although this is only a fraction of the 1.7 million gas boilers installed in homes.
Leading energy suppliers Octopus and British Gas have started something of a price war: British Gas is offering a £1 cheaper heat pump than its competitor.
Government confidence in heat pumps appears to be on the rise, helped by the Energy Systems Catapult report released earlier this year, which reported higher-than-expected efficiency.
As is its effort to grow the market . Ministers are pushing ahead with plans to force boiler manufacturers to produce a certain number of heat pumps and remove fees from electricity bills.
Energy Secretary Grant Shapps plans to purchase a heat pump.
0409 UK hydrogen demand forecast
The government does not intend to decide on its strategy for using hydrogen for home heating until 2026 after testing.
One of the planned tests started unsuccessfully. Cadent Gas was forced to promise households in Whitby, the port of Ellesmere, that they could opt out and stick with natural gas after outrage over being forced to give up their boilers.
Dr. Angela Needle, director of strategy for Cadent Gas, says it is too early to determine the role of hydrogen.
“We expect the future energy system to be about 30 percent hydrogen. she says.
“The number of homes that will end up with hydrogen is pretty hard to say – it will depend on whether there is enough hydrogen and how much of the gas network is converted.
«I think it will be somewhere between 30% and 50%, let's say, but it comes down to the choice of clients and how much it costs.»
As heat pumps gain momentum however there is a risk of narrowing down the choices. Presumably, gas network owners will need a certain number of customers to make the pipeline commercially viable.
It depends, says Dr. Needle. “There may be some streets where you say it's a heat pump street and ultimately we're considering decommissioning at some point in the future.
«But we are far from it.»
Installation of heat pumps throughout Europe
Asking about the conclusions that can be drawn from the academic study conducted by Dr. Rosenov, she asked: «Do they [research] cover the entire value chain from energy production to consumption? Are they relevant to the UK energy system?»
With so much more to play, investors are still hedging their bets. Brookfield Asset Management, an $800bn asset manager led by Mark Carney, a former Governor of the Bank of England, paid £4bn last year to renovate UK homes and install HomeServe boilers.
Through its subsidiary Thermondo, the company installed hundreds of heat pumps in Germany last year. He also owns a stake in the British gas pipeline owner Scotia Gas Networks.
“We believe there are a number of decarbonization technologies that will be critical to reducing household emissions in a cost-effective way,” says Luis Socha, who leads Brookfield's European residential decarbonization strategy.
« There will be options for using hydrogen; it clearly has advantages. But we also think that in the long term, millions of homes will be equipped with heat pumps.
“We see benefits for both – we want to remain agnostic. We are focused on giving consumers the right package.”
For households looking to ditch the gas boiler right now, slow progress on hydrogen means they have no other choice than a heat pump.
The best advice for those who do it. The range of experiences is enormous.
“The only way to stop [the heat pump from icing up after the initial defrost] is to spray it with warm water from a watering can,” says Mrs. Hawks.
“As you can imagine, I am very happy,” says Mr. Martin. «I sincerely sympathize with the people who had a hard time this winter.»
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