Saudi Arabia and Iran End Explosive Proxy War

A baraa dancer performs as she arrives at Sana'a airport in Yemen following a prisoner exchange between the two sides. Photo: REUTERS

Saudi Arabia and Iran's unexpected agreement to put aside explosive rivalry has raised hopes for a settlement of conflicts from Yemen and Syria to Iraq and Lebanon.

Behind the vaunted , Beijing has backed the rapprochement, promising to reshape the region, despite experts warning that the apparent goodwill between Riyadh and Tehran may be short-lived.

Syrian Foreign Minister Becomes Damascus' First Senior Official who has visited Saudi Arabia since the start of the civil war as the Arab states discussed normalizing relations with the government of President Bashar al-Assad.

Meanwhile, the Saudi delegation departed. from Yemen, saying they have made progress in negotiations with the Houthi rebels to end the brutal civil war there. A prisoner exchange took place on Saturday to release 800 detainees from both sides in a confidence-building measure.

From reining in pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, to ​​forcing Lebanese's capricious leaders to agree on much-needed economic reforms and choosing a candidate for a vacant presidential armchair — there is much to be gained if Iran and Saudi Arabia can improve relations.

“The speed with which the tripartite announcement of Saudi Arabia, Iran and China on March 10 was followed by mutual visits…suggests that the rapprochement is more than superficial and is actually happening faster than many expected,” the report said. Christian Ulrichsen, Rice University Baker Institute Fellow for the Middle East.

Released Yemeni prisoners disembark from a Red Cross plane in Sana'a. Photo: GETTY IMAGES

However, some observers remain skeptical about whether the good will last. «There is no denying the breadth and magnitude of the 'de-escalation' taking place in the region,» said Charles Lister, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. “But at the moment there is a lot more optics going on than substance.”

Over the past decade, after the Arab Spring uprisings disrupted much of the old, long-standing order, the Shia theocracy of Iran and the Sunni-majority Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia have vied for influence, supporting opposing factions in wars across the region, especially in Yemen.

After the Iranian-backed Houthis seized the Yemeni capital in 2014, 29-year-old Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, then an inexperienced defense minister, formed a military coalition with the United Arab Emirates to crush the insurgency .

The ensuing eight years of fighting were disastrous for Saudi Arabia as the war spilled over the border in drone and missile strikes against oil installations and civilian centers.

Now, the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia, the Crown Prince is much more eager to focus on its ambitious Vision 2030 plan to reform Saudi society and diversify the economy away from oil. Similarly, the UAE has abandoned its earlier enthusiasm for militarism, earning it the nickname «Little Sparta».

Gulf officials have concluded that it is virtually impossible to defeat the Iranians in a proxy war, Mr. Lister said. «They're just too good at it.»

Released prisoners hug their relatives at Sana'a airport. Photo: REUTERS

With its traditional security guarantor, the United States is seeking to withdraw from the Middle East, which has made the Gulf states feel that diplomacy and rapprochement is their only approach.

Iran, on the other hand, is poised to enter a period of détente as it feels it is entering into negotiations from a position of strength, Mr. Lister said.

“Iran has come to the conclusion that its approach over the past 10 to 15 years has been victorious and there is no longer a need for it to be at the center of their regional politics because he achieved what he wanted, which was significant influence and leverage in Iraq, Syria, Palestine and Yemen,” he said.

< p>Meanwhile, the root causes of regional conflicts have yet to be resolved.

Major points of contention remain between the Gulf states and Iran, including Tehran's nuclear ambitions and the desire to export the Islamic Revolution, suggesting tensions could easily resurface.

< p>“The Iranians didn’t come into this out of weakness, they came into this out of a deep sense of success…they see Saudi Arabia and the UAE as vulnerable,” Mr. Lister said.