Vladimir Putin is seeing a rise in nuclear energy exports despite his invasion of Ukraine. Photo: Oleg Varov, press office of the Russian Orthodox Church via AP
In an effort to punish Vladimir Putin, Western governments unleashed a flurry of punitive sanctions on the Russian energy industry following his invasion of Ukraine.
But one sector clearly escaped their anger still today: nuclear power.
Since the conflict began, it is actually believed that Russian nuclear exports have increased, while exports of coal, oil and gas have decreased.
Meanwhile, despite the key role it played in Moscow's takeover of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant in Energodar, eastern Ukraine, the state monopoly Rosatom remains untouched by Western sanctions.
The reason, experts say, is the complex nature of the chains nuclear supplies, from uranium supplies to reactor building, and Russia's dominance, which currently plays in many of them.
Thanks to its global nuclear network, Moscow can exert political and economic pressure on both friends and and enemies, the White House warned.
A new partnership between the UK, US, Canada, Japan and France is set to change that.
Together, these five countries want to reduce Russia's share of nuclear exports and «make sure that neither Putin nor anyone else like him , will never think that they can again force the world to buy back their energy,” said Grant Shapps, energy security minister.
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The group aims to become independent from Moscow and help other countries do the same, according to agreement.
Most experts agree that these are achievable goals, but it will take time, resources and close collaboration. .
“The main challenge is to get rid of the asymmetric thinking we have lived in,” says Lincoln Hill, head of the Nuclear Industry Association’s (NIA) policy department.
“In the past, the West has considered this as a purely commercial, market situation, and the Russians treated it as a strategic priority, so our companies were undercut and struggled to compete.”
Russian forces abducted the head of Ukraine's Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant and captured her last October. Photo: REUTERS/Alexander Yermochenko
Raw uranium is no longer used to power nuclear reactors, so the fuel supply chain is divided into four parts: uranium mining, conversion, enrichment and fuel fabrication.
Russia's share of world metal production at about 5% is far from the largest, with Kazakhstan, Namibia, Canada, Australia and Uzbekistan boasting higher levels of production.
But Moscow's control in the later stages is much tighter.
According to the World Nuclear Association, only four countries — France, China, Canada and Russia — used uranium conversion plants in 2020, with Russia accounting for 38% of total production.
Meanwhile, Russia controlled about 46% of the world's existing or planned enrichment capacity, as well as 15 to 19% of the fuel fabrication stages.
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Moscow's dominance is partly secured through a network of contracts. Rosatom cooperates with countries around the world, many of which are former Soviet bloc countries that operate Russian-made reactors, so they are dependent on the company for spare parts and fuel.
These VVER power plants are still in use by NATO members Turkey, Finland, Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Hungary, for example, while other customers include India and China.
In addition, Myanmar and Egypt are among the countries , who recently signed agreements with Rosatom to build new reactors with Russian help.
Eugene Schwageraus, a professor of nuclear systems engineering at the Open University, says that convincing any of these countries to refuse supplies from Russia will be difficult for a simple but practical reason: VVER reactors use hexagonal «locomotive assemblies,» an industry term for groups. fuel rods, while Western designs used square ones.
However, even Western countries that do not rely on Russian technology have become more dependent on Moscow since the fall of the Berlin Wall.
As part of the deal «Megatons to megawatts» The US has agreed to buy thousands of metric tons of uranium, which was removed from nuclear weapons when the Kremlin reduced its vast arsenal.
At one stage, this agreement alone provided about 10% of the fuel for US nuclear power plants.
Overall, about 31% of the enriched uranium sold to EU utilities came from Rosatom in 2021, while 28% was sold to those in the US.
This uranium import continues after the Russian attack on Ukraine.
France, which in turn supplies fabricated fuel to other allies, imported 359 million euros (£320 million) of enriched uranium from Russia last year, according to a recent study by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), up from 92 .4 million euros in 2021.
US$829.8m (£667m) worth of imports, up from $645.5m in 2021, and another $70m in January alone.< /p>
In the UK, EDF reports that the fuel used is the Sizewell B nuclear power plant in Suffolk, which was built using uranium enriched by Rosatom.
Daria Dolzikova, a research fellow at RUSI, says there is reason to believe that since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has made about $1 billion exporting nuclear materials and that this figure could even grow.
“In terms of the amount the money it brings into the Russian economy is not as significant as some other types of energy exports,” she explains.
«But at the same time, it might make it a little easier to give it up, even if it's not a bad amount of money.»
Industry insiders say the state-backed Rosatom has so far spread its tentacles at rock bottom prices, making it hard for others to compete.
However, the West still retains a significant nuclear capability and the UK government and its allies are now taking steps to weaken the Kremlin's influence in the market.
Part of this is expected to be due to tougher sanctions on Rosatom, as the US recently unveiled sanctions on a number of the company's foreign subsidiaries and the EU is considering imposing sanctions on the company itself with German backing. .
However, it will also require a boost to domestic production that has not been seen for generations.
For example, US company Westinghouse received £13 million in December to restore its conversion facilities in Springfields, Lancashire, where it already manufactures fuel.
The site will be ready by 2028.
At the same time, Westinghouse itself developed a method for manufacturing Russian-type hexagonal fuel assemblies and signed contracts for their supply to the Czech Republic and Bulgaria.
An industry insider says the new product has been nicknamed «the fuel of freedom.» The firm is already supplying them to Ukraine, another country that uses Russian reactors.
Urenco, the British-German-Dutch nuclear company partly owned by the UK government, also indicated it would expand its enrichment capacity. , including at its site in Capenhurst, Cheshire.
There are also opportunities for additional conversion in Canada, the United States and France.
“There are opportunities,” adds Dolzikova. “So it's not a technical issue, but rather a matter of political will.”
Another interesting new source of nuclear fuel could be reprocessing.
As part of the Springfields expansion, Westinghouse is building what it calls a reprocessing plant, where uranium from nuclear waste is recycled and reused.
It will be the only one of its kind outside of Russia.
Bruce Hanson, professor of nuclear technology at the University of Leeds, who has worked in the industry for over 25 years, says reprocessing used to be done in the UK, but it is now considered too expensive to be economical.
It is cheaper to simply produce new nuclear fuel instead.
However, future efficiency improvements, as well as growing demand for uranium from China, could change the calculations. He argues that recycling is also more sustainable.
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“I think if you would go out and ask people, 'Should we throw away nuclear [waste] if we can recycle it? «I'm pretty sure most Brits would say they'd say we should recycle it,» says Professor Hanson.
NIA's Hill says success will depend on perseverance and confidence that companies will invest.
The nuclear business is a long game, and the bosses won't go for it if they think sanctions against Russia just take it off. back a year later.
In 2014, Westinghouse closed its Springfields conversion plant due to insufficient demand from customers.
This is likely to increase the cost of nuclear fuel, at least temporarily, while while RUSI's Dolzikova warns that China may also see this as an opportunity to wrest market share from Russia.
The West would trade one addiction for another.
But Hill says it's worth it. “The extra cost of switching from Russian to Western fuel will easily pay off in security of supply and energy security benefits, especially for Eastern European countries,” he says.
“So it's a challenge, but it's a very doable task. This will only require close cooperation, clear goals and concrete actions.”
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