The British North Sea is already in natural decline and the remaining reserves are getting harder and more expensive to extract. Photo: Frode Koppang/Alamy Stock Photo < p>About 80 miles west of Shetland, on the edge of the North Atlantic, deep underwater lies the largest undeveloped oil field in UK waters.
The Rosebank holds an expected 300 million barrels of recoverable oil. , although production could be as high as 500 million barrels by some estimates.
A decision to license the field, which is being developed by Norwegian state giant Equinor, is expected to be made by regulators this month.
< p>This has been a key test for the future of the North Sea, with supporters and critics alike watching closely to see what the government decides.
If it is approved, Rosebank could become the last new oil field in the history of the British North Sea.
Labour, currently leading the polls, is planning a total ban on all new oil and gas developments. if the party wins.
Labor's ban will not affect Rosebank as the license, if approved, will be issued before it goes into effect. But it has become a microcosm of the wider issues at stake.
The scheme is described as reckless or vital, depending on who you ask.
If approved, production at the field will begin at the end of 2026 and continue until 2050. At its peak, it will produce about 70,000 barrels of oil per day — or 8 per cent of the UK's total demand — and 60 million cubic feet per day of gas.< /p> 03060 UK oil production and demand
Equinor expects Rosebank to add £24bn to the UK economy and create 1,200 UK jobs at its peak, including 255 full-time company jobs.
However, climate change campaigners the project is said to violate the UK's zero electricity targets, do little for household electricity bills or energy security because 80% of its output will go to refineries overseas and require massive government subsidies.
“If we want a livable climate, we cannot allow any new oil and gas projects or licenses,” says the Stop Rosebank group.
Ed Miliband, Labor Shadow Secretary for Energy and a former party leader, publicly stated against all new developments for the same reasons.
Labor Party sources say that instead of drilling new oil and gas wells, the UK should «make the most efficient use» of its existing reserves.
At the same time, Labor has pledged to borrow £28bn a year to invest in renewable energy schemes such as wind and solar, which it says will create tens of thousands of jobs.
Sir Keir Starmer has often criticized Margaret Thatcher's «heartless» decision to close dozens of British coal mines during the 1980s, which he blames on the economic crisis in the former open pits.
The Labor leader says he won't make the same mistake twice and keep jobs in the North Sea oil and gas industry as the country shifts to renewable energy.
«In well-paid, safe jobs in the oil and gas industry, who are worried about what will happen if we move,” he told business leaders at the British Chamber of Commerce (BCC) conference last month.
“The worst thing we can do is not take it seriously. The worst thing you can do is not interact with them, [not] have a plan that everyone is sure of, and do what happened at the end of the coal mining, which is basically saying to people, «I'm sorry… we go further, you'd better get on your bike.»
«The effects of this are still being felt in communities across the country, and we must never make that mistake again.»
Nevertheless , Equinor and industry representatives say renewable energy investment will not be enough to meet the UK's urgent energy needs.
2401 Generation 2401 for a balanced net zero path
They insist that Rosebank and similar schemes count towards the UK carbon budget and will make a vital contribution to British and European energy security after the war in Ukraine.
< p>And while most of the oil produced will go to the continent and then sent back to the UK in a refined form.
Domestic production is particularly important to the UK, industry bosses argue, because the UK is still dependent on fossil fuels for three-quarters of its energy needs. It produces about half of its oil and gas reserves domestically.
The North Sea is already in a state of natural depletion, and its remaining reserves are becoming increasingly difficult and expensive to produce.
At the same time, the share of the share Fossil fuels in the energy mix are gradually declining, which means we will have to import more in the coming years to meet demand.
So new wells are needed to keep oil flowing and prevent the UK from becoming even more dependent on imports, says David Whitehouse, chief executive of the lobbying group Offshore Energies UK.
“While we still use oil and gas in the UK, every barrel we choose not to produce here in the UK will simply come from somewhere else,” he adds.
“This means that we will export our jobs. This means that we are importing oil and gas from other countries that do not have the same commitment to combat climate change as we do.
“Therefore, from my point of view, this is absolutely in line with [recommendations] IEA that we are continuing to develop domestic oil and gas.”
He says British producers are already taking more serious steps than their global counterparts to cut emissions from mining.
Black gold 2904 , north sea
For example, Rosebank Equinor has promised to use a floating production vessel that could eventually be fully electrified, which means it could be powered by wind power.
“This is a sector that is absolutely interested in our oil was the cleanest in the world,” adds Whitehouse.
“There is a huge effort in the industry to achieve this.”
The North Sea Transition Deal, announced by the government in 2021, aims to strike a balance by helping the industry reduce emissions while gradually retraining staff for green energy work.
However, Offshore Energies UK predicts that a full a ban on all new oil and gas developments would result in a 60% drop in North Sea oil production by 2033, costing the industry at least 45,000 jobs.
This led Sir Keir to explain how Labour's stated proposal will not lead to a job bloodbath, as there are party supporters among those who support unions to publicly express concern.
Sharon Graham, general secretary of Unite, an organization that represents oil rig workers, says the proposals important details are still missing from the Labor leader.
“We cannot allow a repeat of the devastation caused to workers and their communities by the closure of the drilling rigs. coal mines,” she said this week.
As the Rosebank decision approaches, Sir Keir will be forced to choose sides.
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