Putin and Prigozhin in 2010
This is the end of the road for Vladimir Putin.
He can just survive armed mutiny by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagnerian mercenaries, but he will be irreversibly damaged and his Kremlin days numbered.
Mr. Putin's aura of invincibility and control badly damaged by his misguided and failed invasion of Ukraine will now be shattered.
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Russians prefer their leaders to be tough and see weakness as incurable.
Millions of Russians who once looked to Mr. Putin as their indomitable savior, the man they hailed for restoring Russia's pride after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the humiliations of the 1990s, will instead see a crippled and failed man. < /p>
Formerly obsequious Russian officials who crawled over each other to please Putin in hopes of currying favor with others will now turn to others.
And Russian and Soviet leaders rarely survive long after a coup , even if it fails at first.
Trapped in a villa in Crimea, Mikhail Gorbachev survived the Kremlin hardliners' coup in August 1991, but his power waned and he lost his post as Soviet leader within five months.
Two years later, Boris Yeltsin, President Russia, turned his tanks on the Russian parliament after they tried to remove him from power. It worked and solidified his presidency, but the chaos caused by his coup engulfed Yeltsin, who took to drink.
Rebellion against incompetent leaders
By New Year's Eve 1999/2000, flabby and ill, he gave in after a chaotic six years as president and left in favor of Mr. Putin.
The hyperactive Mr. Prigozhin struggled to make it clear that this is not a coup, but a riot against Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defense minister, and Valery Gerasimov, the head of the Russian army, whom he accuses of incompetence that has killed thousands of Russian soldiers.
No matter how the rebellion is covered up, Mr. Putin is the head of the Russian state. If Russian soldiers fight Russian mercenaries in Russia, his leadership will be forever compromised.
And it also looks like a well-planned uprising by Mr. Prigozhin and his private army. Reports say they have seized key military installations around Rostov and Voronezh and are planning an offensive against Moscow.
His video rants against the Russian military became increasingly personal over the course of the week, and on Friday he moved from his usual critique of Russian military tactics to challenging the Kremlin's motives for Ukraine's invasion, which he also called unnecessary and a failure.
It was dangerous territory, because everyone understands that Putin decided to invade.
Mr. Pirgozhin said he had recruited 25,000 fighters to his side. Some of them will be former adventurers, while others will be the best Russian soldiers, former special forces and former members of the Kremlin guard.
While this number should be taken with a pinch of salt, they are loyal to Mr. Prigozhin, whom they admire for standing up to the Russian military and for capturing Bakhmut after a grueling eight-month siege.
Questionable leadership and low morale
It is unclear whether the Russian army, which is better armed with more tanks, attack helicopters and combat aircraft, but has low morale and suffers from questionable leadership, will be able to withstand a smaller but well-motivated and determined force.
Of course, it is shocking to see Wagner recruits patrolling the streets of Rostov-on-Don, the southern city that Prigozhin claims has already been captured.
Mr. Prigozhin also called on members of the National Guard, one of the largest armies in Russia, and other soldiers to join him. Whether they will is the key question. General Sergei Surovikin, known as General Armageddon and a man believed to be closely associated with the Wagner group, told Russian soldiers to remain loyal to the Kremlin.
Hesitation, brutality and callousness
After Russian troops were destroyed and demoralized after 16 months of war in Ukraine, the Kremlin will worry. Frontline reports also say that Ukrainian forces have launched a counteroffensive as Mr. Prigozhin's coup unfolds, testing the temper of already frail Russian soldiers.
And here is Mr. Putin's response.< /p>
According to analysts who have studied him as an indecisive, cruel and heartless opportunist, Mr. Putin disappeared from view for several hours before issuing a statement this morning calling the rebels traitors. Paranoid and out of touch with the world, his first reaction was to hide away, leaving a leadership vacuum.
Mr. Prigozhin played many roles for Mr. Putin, his patron for two decades. He was Putin's chef, sommelier, go-between and hired military leader, but the most important of these will be the last one – Putin's Judas
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