Yevgeny Prigozhin, who leads the Wagner mercenary group, keeps Vladimir Putin's military commanders in sight
Vladimir Putin faced an armed rebellion by a man who once helped organize banquets in the Kremlin.
The Russian army launched airstrikes and artillery strikes on the Wagner mercenary group controlled by Yevgeny Prigozhin.
It is too early to tell who will prevail , as the Wagner convoy approaches Moscow.
But the relative strength of each side lies in what, in less than 24 hours, has turned into a full-blown coup against the Putin regime. Wagner is a mercenary group created by the Kremlin in 2014 to assist in the initial invasion of Ukraine's eastern Donbas region. Since then, his tasks have expanded to include operations in the Middle East and Africa.
Last year, he was given primary responsibility for the strategically important Bakhmut Offensive in the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine, and eight months later, in at the end of May they brought Vladimir Putin a stubborn victory.
The soldiers of the Wagner group won a stubborn victory in Bakhmut. Photo: AFP
In the summer, Wagner was recruited from prisons to increase his strength to 35,000 fighters. In January, the British Ministry of Defense estimated that its total manpower may have peaked at around 50,000 fighters.
Many of them were killed in the Battle of Bakhmut as they were reportedly sent in waves against well-fortified positions. Ukrainian positions.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, nicknamed Putin's chef because he once had lucrative catering contracts with the Kremlin, directed Wagner for most of its existence. Officially, he also financed it, but it is likely that most of the money came directly from the Kremlin.
He became a sworn enemy of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, as well as Valery Gerasimov, the head of the Russian military, whom he accused of incompetence and the senseless killing of thousands of Russian soldiers in the war in Ukraine.
He said he ordered an armed mutiny on Friday night to spare the Defense Ministry Russians Mr. Shoigu and General Gerasimov.
Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed he had an army of 25,000 ready to start a coup. It's impossible to confirm, but he certainly had access to thousands of loyal, battle-hardened fighters through his band of Wagner mercenaries.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu became a sworn enemy of Prigozhin. Photo: Egor ALEEV/AFP
These fighters had to sign contracts to be placed under the control of the Russian Ministry of Defense after they withdrew from Bakhmut earlier this month, and while they verbally confirmed the concept, it looks like they spent time to prepare for the uprising. /p>
Wagner fighters are usually cool. They are mostly recruited from prisons or are former Russian soldiers, often special forces, who are looking for new combat experience and additional pay.
Many Wagner soldiers are also better equipped than the average Russian soldier, who is often reported to be rusty and outdated.
The morale of the Wagnerians is also higher than that of the Russian soldiers, who suffered greatly in the last 16 months of the war. Although the Russian army was once estimated at over 1 million men, analysts say it has lost 220,000 men and its best units have been routed.
Prigozhin with some of his soldiers on 25 May. Photo: Prigozhin Press Service/UPI/Shutterstock/Shutterstock
The Russian army has also had to rely on 320,000 conscripted men to fill gaps in its forward force. These forces are considered a reasonable defensive deterrent, but not a specialized offensive force, and certainly not capable of dealing with a complex insurgency.
Perhaps the biggest problem for the Russian armed forces lies in the deployment of their forces. Most of them are stuck on the front line in Ukraine, which cannot be weakened.
He does have a National Guard estimated at 340,000 strong, a largely untested force that sits somewhere between the army and public order police. In 2016, Putin signed a law separating the leadership of the National Guard from and reporting to the Russian army.
Russian fortifications in southern Ukraine
Supposedly tasked with defending Russia's borders, fighting drug trafficking and terrorism, his competence has already been called into question after pro-Ukrainian Russian forces were able to infiltrate southern Russia several times and attack Russian towns and villages this year.
They also deployed lightly armed units to support the Russian military's incursion into Ukraine, but reports say many of them were destroyed in the fierce initial fighting. Other units were crushed, and in March 2022, Putin fired the deputy head of the National Guard. Prigozhin called on the Russian Guard to join his uprising.
There are also about 250,000 conscripts under the command of the Russian army. They can be deployed to protect Russia from threats, but have a lower level of training and equipment.
Finally, there is the FSO. This is a bodyguard unit specially recruited to protect Russian dignitaries, the Kremlin and, most importantly, Putin. It has about 50,000 people and is considered something like the Praetorian Guard.
This is where the Russian army should have had a significant advantage over the Wagner mercenary group. The Russian armed forces have one of the largest fleets of tanks and military aircraft in the world, although, again, the war in Ukraine has greatly affected it.
It is also worth noting that the Wagner Group stated that it shot down at least three Russian military helicopters in the past 24 hours. This could not be confirmed. Footage from Voronezh shows a Russian KA-52 helicopter flying over the city above a cloud of black smoke, suggesting that it struck a site in the city where Wagner troops were arriving.
2306 Ukraine, front line
According to a Reuters eyewitness, Russian army helicopters also opened fire on Wagner forces on the M4 highway outside the city.
Photographs from Rostov, a city in southern Russia that the Wagner Group claims is now controlled by the Wagner Group, also show him in command of several tanks and armored personnel carriers, and Prigozhin has previously discussed Wagner warplanes.
Telegram channel, linked to sources in the Russian military aviation, said that the Wagner Air Force is now flying combat missions to Ukraine from a military airfield near Rostov. which he captured.
Again, military commitments are a major headache for the Russian armed forces. Prigozin's uprising effectively means that it is fighting on two fronts, and it simply cannot afford to weaken its forward forces in the face of the intensified onslaught of Ukraine.
The Wagner Group has a clear advantage here. While morale is low in the Russian army after months of a war of attrition followed by endless trench-digging and now weeks of furious Ukrainian attacks, Wagner Group soldiers have mostly rested since capturing Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine in the Donbass earlier this month. /p>
Reports from Wagner fighters who have previously defected indicate that the unit's leadership qualities vary greatly, but what is unshakable is the fighters' admiration for Prigogine. His leadership qualities and ability to communicate easily with his people set him apart from the Russian military leaders who struggled to inspire.
Prigozhin also said that dozens of Russian soldiers had deserted and that his troops had been allowed to cross from Ukraine to Russia. All this highlights the weak morale of the Russian forces.
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Russian governors and politicians have begun to support Putin, who has called for Prigozhin to be «cruelly» punished for his rebellion. Among them, the most famous is Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of Chechnya.
He was a staunch supporter of Putin, but is also known for his love of supporting the winners. If he believed that Putin was highly compromised, he could support Prigozhin. Instead, he said the head of Wagner «stabbed Putin in the back.»
Vyacheslav Volodin, head of the Russian parliament, also supported Putin, as one would expect from a staunch loyalist. He has been joined by regional governors who are still eager to show their support for the man occupying the Kremlin.
Another important supporter is Patriarch Kirill, head of the Russian Orthodox Church. He said he supported Putin, a staunch supporter of the Russian Orthodox Church.
Although no senior Russian figure has declared support for Prigozhin, Russian opposition figures in exile have.
Maybe. the most notable of these is Mikhail Khodorkovsky. He used to be the richest man in Russia until Putin stripped him of his power and assets and threw him in jail in 2005. He now lives in exile in London.
The large Russian opposition émigré communities are not Prigozhin's natural supporters. and their support betrays their desperation in many ways.
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