Rishi Sunak will launch the Tory campaign in the fall. Credit: JESSICA TAYLOR/AFP London will host a caucus that some see as pivotal for their party's future.
The first of a series of «boot camps» for a new generation of «true blue» Tory candidates is to be held to equip would-be right-wing MPs with the skills to take them to some of the safest seats currently held by outgoing Conservative MPs.
Study sessions are one of many ways high The installed Tories are now preparing for life as an opposition party, despite terrible polls and a string of defeats in last week's by-election, 13 years after the government was first formed.
Perhaps Rishi Sunak was referring to the upcoming elections, due to take place by January 2025, last weekend when he watched Mission: Impossible: Payback of the Dead with his wife Akshata Murthy.
More than one in 10 Conservative MPs have already announced they will step down in the next election. Many of them are former ministers who believe that Labor will form a government by the end of next year.
0107 MPs strike
As the number of vacancies increases, the familiar patterns of particularly ambitious cabinet ministers emerge, subtly — and not so subtly — courting Tory supporters and associations, gathering for drinks and attending dinners all over the country.
Ministers that MPs see as overseeing the top job include James Cleverly, Foreign Secretary, Kemi Badenoch, Secretary of Business and Trade, Penny Mordaunt, Leader of the House of Commons, Grant Shapps, Energy Secretary, and Swella Braverman, Home Secretary. They have all participated – albeit briefly – in at least one of the previous leadership races over the past four years, without success.
In a sign of the scale of ambition, at least one MP who tentatively backs one of these ministers has admitted that they “do not completely rule out” running.
The advancement of right-wing candidates is supported by those who fear that the absence of such MPs in the next parliament will guarantee the election of a “centrist” leader instead of Mr. Sunaka.
At a dinner at the Commons Press Gallery in Churchill Parliament Hall on the banks of the Thames earlier this month, Mr Shapps decided to start his speech with a joke that contradicted a past scandal involving his use of the pseudonym Michael Green almost two decades ago to pursue business interests.
When asked if he wanted to be a Tory leader, he said: “Who knows what will happen in the future? All I know is that we have the wisdom and experience to lead the way in this country, so I think that now that person is Rishi Sunak.”
These remarks raised eyebrows in Downing Street, where it was noted that Mr Shapps' support for the Prime Minister was hardly complete. In his speech, he appeared to emphasize the word «now» especially.
Campaign
Mr. Sunak is expected to fly abroad this summer with his wife and two daughters, Krishna and Anushka, for a 10-day vacation that friends note will be his first summer trip since 2018.
On Saturday night, Sunaki went to watch the new Barbie movie as part of the opening weekend of the parliamentary recess.
Then, in the fall, the prime minister will fire the starting pistol in the Conservative campaign to win another five years in office, despite the fact that many of his own MPs and ministers consider this feat almost unattainable.
On Friday, he insisted the election was not a «settled deal,» citing the Conservatives' successful hold on the Uxbridge seat vacated by Boris Johnson, albeit with less than 500 votes.
Downing Street is hoping the September reshuffle will help provide a much-needed boost.
“When a real choice is at stake on the merits, people vote Conservative,” Mr Sunak insisted.
BYELECTIONS – Uxbridge and South Ruislip
Senior party figures are giving hope in some recent polls that show a relatively small proportion of 2019 Conservative voters have already decided to switch to Labor rather than opting for don't know.
A recent YouGov poll circulated at the Tory campaign headquarters shows that 24% of voters who supported the party in 2019 now say they don't know who to vote for, compared to 9% who switched to Labor. The party hopes that it will be easier to win them back.
However, even one insider loyal to Mr. Sunak said they only believe the party has a one-in-three chance of winning an election likely to take place either next spring or fall 2024.
Away from Mr. Sunak's inner circle, one Tory on the party's right said: «The opinion polls can't be that wrong, can they? It's no wonder that after 14 years of being in power, we have a government that people are fed up with and think it's time for a change.»
The former cabinet minister added: “Uxbridge does not provide Rishi with a card to get out of jail. The result shows that when we are conservative—cutting taxes and opposing new rules like Ulez—we are popular.
“It is becoming increasingly clear that the failure of the party leadership to act now and change course could lead to electoral armageddon for the party in the next election.”
Sunak lays out ambition
On Wednesday, Mr. Sunak tried to rally his MPs by telling them in a private meeting that “in the coming months I am going to lay out more of what I would do if I had a full term. I have recently been named a modern full-spectrum conservative, and you will see that in the program I have laid out.»
Rishi Sunak is preparing to rally her MPs ahead of next year's general election. Photo: Simon Walker/No 10 Downing. Street
Some MPs share Mr. Sunak's optimism or hope. One points to Theresa May's horrific 2017 election as evidence of an election in which «no one foresaw what would happen during the campaign.» «Sir Keir Starmer's cautious positioning will collapse,» the MP insisted, saying: «Labour deliberately didn't say anything special. This cannot go on.”
The first Conservative bench during the years they were in opposition is among those who believe that the party will be overthrown next year and are making plans accordingly. But in order for the Conservative MPs to relax about the period of opposition, the parliamentarian warns: “People do not know how difficult it is to be in opposition. We're going to have very difficult times.
«Your ability to lobby the government is greatly reduced, and that's even before political issues, when you grit your teeth about more and more taxes.
«Starmer says he's going to re-introduce onshore wind farms. They will be in rural areas. Guess who will represent these districts?
“They will be ruthless against the Tories. I promise it will get worse.”
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