As Conservative supporters demand a rethink of Britain's net zero policy, Rishi Sunak gave a less than convincing response when challenged over one of the government's signature pledges.
The ban on the sale of new gasoline and diesel cars is due to come into effect from 2030, announced with great fanfare by the Prime Minister's predecessor, Boris Johnson.
But when asked if he would stick to the plan on Monday, Mr. Sunak declined to answer.
“Of course, a clean zero is important to me,” he said. “So yes, we will continue to move towards our zero emission ambitions and also strengthen our energy security.
“I think the events of the last year or two have demonstrated the importance of increasing investment in domestic energy, whether it be more nuclear or offshore wind. I think that's what people want to see and that's what I'm going to show.”
The comments set the stage for a major reversal, though Downing Street insists the 2030 ban remains official policy.
This is the latest twist in a saga dating back to Mr Johnson's premiership.
A year before the Cop26 climate conference in the UK, Boris Johnson was preparing to make a striking statement.
The prime minister was then ready to lay out his 10-point plan. ignite a green industrial revolution, and its centerpiece was a promise to ban the sale of new gasoline and diesel cars by 2030.
A very ambitious goal that was five years ahead of the deadline he set just nine months earlier, which car industry bosses dismissed as «a date without a plan.»
It was also ten years ahead of the goal set by his predecessor, Theresa May y, just two years before.
“Our green industrial revolution will be powered by wind turbines in Scotland and the North East, powered by electric vehicles built in the Midlands and enhanced with the latest technology developed in Wales, so we can look forward to a more prosperous and greener future,” Mr Johnson said in November 2020.
Boris Johnson and other ministers hoped his 10-point environmental plan would bolster demand for electric vehicles Photo: Freddie Mitchell/No. 10 Downing Street
The government said his speech would put the UK on a path to see the UK become the fastest G7 country to decarbonize road transport.
However, the new sales ban, which the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders called «extremely difficult», represented a huge gamble that could either lead to turbocharging or undermine the UK's domestic auto industry.
And surprisingly, no detailed proposals were made for such a coherent policy to achieve it.
Instead, Johnson and other ministers hoped that expanding the target would bolster demand for electric vehicles, encouraging businesses to produce consumables and build the legions of chargers that would be required.
“This is a classic example of sending a man to the moon,” says one former minister involved in politics.
“When Kennedy said, 'We're going to put a man on the moon,' he didn't know how they were going to get there. He just said it was a goal and they achieved it.”
But fast forward to today and the scale of the undertaking is clear.
EVs remain out of reach for most households and it will take a massive grid upgrade to increase UK car chargers from the current 42,000 to over 300,000 required by ministers.
A long way to go
In the meantime, about five battery «gigafactories» are needed in the UK to meet domestic demand for cars — with hundreds of thousands of industrial jobs if they are not provided.
Experts say we are now at a crossroads. A report released this week by the Climate Change Committee, the statutory body that oversees zero emissions, said growth in electric vehicle sales has been promising, but work on chargers «should now expand faster.»
Individually, industry leaders say Britain has little time left to secure the gigafactories that will form the backbone of its future car manufacturing base. Failure to do so, while maintaining the ban on the sale of new gasoline-powered vehicles from 2030, threatens a carnage in the workplace.
As the clock ticks, worries grow that the UK simply won't be ready for 2030, and a delay is becoming more likely.
The cost of carbon emissions
The UK's commitment to achieving zero carbon emissions by 2050 will require the near elimination of vehicle emissions.
Ground transport, including cars, makes up the largest share of the UK's annual carbon emissions, at 23 per cent last year.
That was about 105 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, the Committee on Climate Change's latest report says, up 3 percent from 2021 but 8 percent less than before the pandemic. ic levels.
The reduction was mainly due to increased work from home, rising fuel prices and so-called low-traffic areas, with little contribution from growth in electric vehicle sales.
However, a pivotal moment is fast approaching when sales of electric vehicles, which have much lower lifetime emissions than gasoline, will have to do more of the hard work.
Gasoline cars typically last about 14 years, says Mike Howes, executive director of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SM). MT).
“So this immediately says that by 2035 you have to stop selling cars with internal combustion engines (ICE), so that by 2050 they will no longer be on the roads, and net income will be zero,” he adds.
That 2035 target was actually adopted earlier this year by the European Union, with Denmark joining the UK in proposing a more ambitious 2030 target. 5 phase-out.
The UK's original target was 2040, but it has since been changed twice by longtime environmentalist Boris Johnson, who was inspired by his now wife, Carrie Symonds.
Johnson believed the UK could get ahead of the rest of the world by pushing car companies to go electric earlier, by 2030, according to his former government allies.
“Boris was an excellent goal-oriented leader. He was really good at drawing the vision and saying, «Let's get there, I don't care how we get there, but let's get there,» says one minister who participated in the discussions.
«That would make you think about how to do it.»
Would you change to an electric car? — poll
In this respect, at least, the policy had immediate consequences. Industry groups were quick to warn that a «Herculean effort» would be required, with SMMT saying success would «depend on consumer confidence that they can afford these new technologies, that they will meet their mobility needs and, most importantly, that they can recharge as easily as they can refuel.» The sale of hybrid vehicles, part petrol, part battery, will be allowed until 2035.
This was contrary to the Climate Change Committee's recommendation to phase out all carbon-emitting cars by 2032 at the latest. But it gave a reprieve to a number of car factories, most of which soon became hybrid-only anyway.
The Guardian reports that Honda and Ford have warned that jobs could be lost due to the earlier ban on hybrid cars. Honda closed its Swindon plant in 2021.
The Department of Transportation has since submitted proposals for a so-called Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) mandate that sets quotas on how many electric vehicle manufacturers should sell.
This will start at 22% next year and gradually increase annually to 52% by 2028 and 80% by 2030.
“We are ready to take on the challenge, but we need to make sure we use all the levers to move this market and encourage people to switch to new level,” says Hawes.
Outrageous prices
By far the biggest reason that puts many drivers off buying an electric car is the cost.
Last year, the best-selling electric cars in the UK were the Tesla Model Y and Model 3, which cost around £45,000 and £43,000 respectively, as registration statistics show.
Kia's Niro and Volkswagen's ID.3 were next, starting at £37,000, and market leader Nissan Leaf starting at £29,000.
The cheapest of the four-seat cars is China's £27,000 MG4 EV.
But they are all much more expensive than the cheapest petrol cars: the Dacia Sandero costs around £12 £600, MG3 £13,300 and Kia Picanto £13,400.
«We really need to see the cost of EVs come down,» says RAC's Simon Williams.
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As with heat pumps, the electric heating that the government has backed to replace gas-fired boilers, proponents often argue that the running costs of electric vehicles are actually cheaper than gasoline vehicles.
However, the upfront cost remains prohibitive for most families, just as well because the technology is not as mature as fossil fuel-powered alternatives.
In the case of electric vehicles, the main reason for this is the cost of batteries, the most expensive components that go into them.
The Committee on Climate Change has stated that lower battery prices are necessary for more widespread use of electric vehicles, but noted this as an issue that is currently «a bit untrue».
After steadily declining in 2022, prices rose as global markets were shaken by disruptions in supply chains caused by the aftermath of the pandemic and war in Ukraine, pushing up the prices of base metals and other materials.
Meanwhile, while an electric car is still cheaper to operate than a gasoline car if you charge it at home, rising electricity prices have made battery power less competitive for those who rely on public chargers devices.
Steady decline
This disparity is exacerbated by unequal VAT rates. Those who charge at home pay only 5 percent, while those who charge for the use of public infrastructure pay 20 percent.
Another charge will come in 2025, when electric vehicles will no longer be eligible for excise duty exemption, in line with changes announced by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt in his autumn statement last November.
One way to make EVs more affordable is through a payroll donation scheme that allows employees of some companies to rent cars and pay from their gross salary, providing tax efficiency.
Fiona Howarth, chief executive of Octopus Energy's EV division, which rents company cars, says her company has more than 3,000 businesses and has rented 10,000 vehicles since it was founded two years ago.
She has received £650m from investors, of which around £400m has been committed so far.
“Payroll donation and other company car schemes are a very popular avenue for electric vehicles,” she says, “because payroll sacrifice actually makes the monthly purchase of an electric car cheaper compared to the petrol or diesel equivalent – and that without any fuel savings.”
Those who charge at home can save another £1,000 a year on fuel, Howarth adds. «It makes the transition very attractive.»
One of the concerns for buyers in recent years has been affordability as demand has outpaced supply. Some market players have successfully ramped up production, such as Tesla, which increased production from 100,000 vehicles in 2017 to 1.4 million in 2022.
By comparison, German giant Volkswagen said it delivered 572,000 electric vehicles that year, but it was filling another 310,000 orders in Western Europe alone as supply chain problems limited production.
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“The demand for electric vehicles is just growing and manufacturers are now trying to catch up,” adds Howarth.
Customers who order some of the prestige brands can wait up to two and a half years. , while other models had to wait 9 to 12 months last year.
0604 Tesla Boom
This is one of the drawbacks of the more affordable Chinese models, which have to ship to Europe and tend to be targeted primarily at larger left-hand drive markets rather than right-hand drive ones such as the UK.
“Chinese brands are the most affordable EVs on the market right now with very good range, and they are very popular,” Howarth says.
“And they have had trouble meeting some of that demand.”
Overall, EVs accounted for 17% of new car sales in 2022, more than what the Climate Change Committee thinks is needed at this stage to reach zero net profit.
Growing demand
However, one problem is that the new car market remains 30% smaller than it was in 2019.
Most experts agree that almost as important to the wider adoption of electric vehicles is the more affordable used market, which remains tiny. In 2022, only 1% of those sales were EVs: Autotrader listed just 20,000 EVs on Friday, compared to more than 425,000 petrol, diesel and hybrid vehicles.
Meanwhile, as the cost of living rises, there are fears that customer appetite will suffer.
VW this week cut electric vehicle production at one of its plants in Germany, with the automaker's works council blaming «strong customer reluctance to dance.» Reduced subsidies, rising inflation and long delivery times contributed to this.
Volkswagen is cutting electric vehicle production at one of its largest plants after «strong customer reluctance» led to lower-than-expected sales. Photo: David Hecker/AFP
Olaf Lees, politician, board member, said the decision was a «warning signal for the industry.»
«EV registrations remain high, but we are concerned about the current drop in demand — and not just for Volkswagen, but for all manufacturers,» he said.
Miscellaneous progress
Another big concern many drivers have about electric vehicles is “range anxiety” — the fear that their car might run out of battery if there are no chargers nearby.
Grant Shapps, who was Secretary of Transportation when the 2030 policy was announced and is now Secretary of Energy, is an EV driver himself and immediately understood the need to address range anxiety, says a colleague.
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In response, the government has provided £1.6bn to expand the network of charging points in the UK, as part of plans to reach at least 300,000 chargers by 2030, or around 430 chargers per 100,000 people. It is expected that there will be 10 million electric vehicles on the roads by this point.
«No matter where you live, we are moving to electricity and ensure that no one is left behind,» Shapps said in March 2022.
So far, however, progress has been uneven. There are currently around 40,000 chargers in the UK, including almost 8,000 «fast» chargers capable of charging a car's battery from 20 to 80 pc in about half an hour, according to official figures.
However, they are unevenly distributed, with the bottom fifth of local authorities providing just 20 chargers per 100,000 people, compared to 55 in England and 134 in the top fifth of authorities.
010 4. Electric vehicle infrastructure fails
About one in 20 chargers also didn't work last year, and consumers have to find up to 20 different suppliers. The government is also falling short of its goal of having six fast-charging stations in every motorway service area in England by the end of this year, with less than a quarter of the 119 sites inspected by the RAC meeting the requirement.
This is vital, says RAC's Williams. «Driving an electric car every day is really easy because most people don't drive that many miles every day,» he says.
“It’s only when you start making trips outside of your vehicle’s reach that you will need to recharge on the trip. And you'll want to do it as quickly as possible.
«While early adopters were willing to schedule their trips to take a little longer, regular drivers won't.»
A large number of new chargers are in development and charging companies have allocated £6bn to build them by 2030. But the Climate Change Committee is still raising the question of whether the pace of change is fast enough.
Ian Johnston, chief executive of Osprey and chairman of the industry organization ChargeUK, argues that conditions are generally good, with bad sites being the exception rather than the rule these days.
“If you look at what the private sector is doing and what private homeowners are doing, we are seeing a phenomenal rollout of charging,” he says, pointing to the growing number of supermarkets, jobs and residential streets where they can now be found.
According to ChargeUK, March and April were the best months for installations, with over 2,000 chargers installed in both, up 75% from a year ago.
However, the industry needs to build on average twice more every month to reach the government's goal.
And that growth irritates physical limitations, Johnston says. For example, connecting one of the regional power grid operators to the power grid is often delayed due to a lack of engineers, and the process of agreeing on planning in many areas is often delayed. 00,000 chargers by 2030. Photo: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg
Charging prices also continue to rise. According to the RAC, since September 2021, the cost of using an «ultra-fast» public charger has more than doubled from 34.2 pence per kilowatt hour to 74.2 pence per kilowatt hour.
The average cost per mile is currently 10 pence with a home charger and about 20 pence with public chargers, compared to about 16 pence per mile for gasoline new car that goes 40 mpg, says RAC's Williams. punished unfairly.
“So you have a level playing field for all EV drivers,” adds Williams.
Going forward, with experts predicting that the spread of wind and solar power will cause electricity prices to fall, the environment could also become much more competitive and tougher for many charger providers as the amount they can charge drops.
«There will absolutely be consolidation,» says Osprey's Johnston. “Every month, hundreds of millions of dollars move to new charging providers, so there will be winners and losers.”
Behind all of this is also the question of whether the National Grid can modernize the country's electricity system to prepare it for millions of electric vehicles to be charged overnight.
The grid estimates peak demand for electricity, including electric vehicles, to reach 68.5 gigawatts by 2030, up from 58.8 gigawatts in 2021.
In terms of network bandwidth, 38.3 gigawatts would be required. terawatt-hours of electricity per year for electric vehicles by then, up from 2 terawatt-hours last year.
Lawrence Slade, chief executive of the Energy Networks Association, which represents the UK's energy network operators, says it will be a «huge undertaking.»
«We're helping connect hundreds of thousands of electric vehicle charging points to the grid,» he says, «but there's a big problem.»
In the year to October 2022, about 164 gigawatts of connection requests were received, more than double the capacity of the entire network.
Factory of the future
Today, more than 40 million vehicles are registered with British owners, including about 35 million cars and 5 million vans and trucks. Perhaps the biggest challenge facing the UK is manufacturing.
Only about 1 million electric vehicles have been registered.
About 814,000 people are currently employed in the automotive industry, including 169,000 employed in manufacturing, according to SMMT.
The Tesla Gigafactory in Berlin opened in 2022 and can produce 4,000 Model Y cars a week. Photo: REUTERS/Hannibal Hanschke/File Photo.
Ever since the 2030 target was announced, one of the biggest concerns has been whether this totem industry can survive in an electrified world. cars. These plants are considered key because every other part of the EV supply chain will revolve around them.
So far, the UK has certainly received only one, at Nissan's Sunderland plant. Another was to be built in Blythe by Britishvolt, but this is now in doubt after the collapse of the company and subsequent rescue.
Jaguar Land Rover owner Tata Motors is said to be ready to announce the construction of a gigafactory in Somerset following promises of government support, but this has yet to be officially confirmed and Spain has made a counteroffer.
Automotive leaders have repeatedly warned that time is running out to keep these plants safe. The Faraday Institute has said that without them, the domestic auto industry will gradually decline as hybrid plants shut down.
At the same time, the 2030 ban has further stoked British automakers, who are already battling «rules of origin» negotiated with the EU as part of the Brexit deal, which means they must also ensure that most of their battery components are sourced here or on the continent.
With Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act attracting many firms in the US and President Macron and Germany's Olaf Scholz offering attractive subsidies to companies, is Brit Isn't there enough time to resolve this issue?
«It's not too late,» says SMMT's Hawes. «But, as I said, the window is closing.»
So, how likely is success?
«I wouldn't put interest on it, but I'm optimistic,» Hawes insists.
There is a deadline on the horizon
With six and a half years to go before the new petrol and diesel car ban, it may seem like a long way off the new petrol and diesel car ban.
But in fact, many of the decisions that could tip the scales in or in the UK's favor need to be made today.
For now, the system is holding up, but the question remains whether electric car makers and charger suppliers can manage rising prices and supply chain delays while maintaining the momentum of the transition.
Some MPs, including former business secretary Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, fear that a 2030 ban on new petrol cars will see the UK cede production to foreign countries and have urged Rishi Sunak to push back the target.
One former minister says : «A lot of these goals are ambitious… There's an element of just trying to get things going and then fixing the problems after that.
«I do think 2030 is ambitious, but it's not impossible.»
Boris Johnson's ambition to have the UK's electric car revolution global has always been ambitious.
Now that efforts to expand the charging network are floundering, prices remain high and manufacturers are struggling to develop a supply chain that is becoming increasingly difficult to implement.
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