Donald Trump, the Dalai Lama, and racehorse owners are not usually considered kindred spirits. But they were all featured in a $900bn (£700bn) coronavirus relief bill signed into law by the former US president in 2020.
Their connection was forged after months of tense political negotiations as Republicans and Democrats squabbled about how much the world's largest economy should offer financial assistance during the pandemic.
Months of delays meant that the 5,593-page law was also chock-full of legislative flaws regarding nuclear power and illegal streaming that had nothing to do with strengthening a fragile economy.
This vicious cycle posturing, stalemate, and eleventh-hour agreements are becoming increasingly common on Capitol Hill.
Back in 2020, Congress was only hours away from passing a bill. “This is not management. This is a hostage situation,” said New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Most recently, in June, Congress narrowly averted a default after reaching an agreement to suspend the so-called debt ceiling, which determines how much money the US government can borrow.
It is episodes like these that Fitch believes blame it for the decision deprive the US economy of a gold credit rating.
0308 Signing the Nation
Others called the rating agency's decision «weird» and «puzzling.» Janet Yellen, US Secretary of the Treasury, called it «arbitrary and based on outdated data.»
Larry Summers, Bill Clinton's predecessor, called the move «absurd.»
Their point is that no one questions America's ability to pay its bills on time. But rapidly rising US interest rates and an increasingly tense political environment suggest Fitch is right.
Richard Francis, a senior director at the ratings agency, said his officials told the US Treasury that the attack on the Capitol building in Washington, D.C. played a role in the downgrade. “This is just a reflection of deteriorating governance, this is one of many,” he told Reuters.
The January 6, 2021 uprising followed Joe Biden’s 2020 presidential election victory, which Trump refused to acknowledge. . A crowd of Trump supporters attacked the Capitol building, trying to keep him in power.
Francis adds: “You have a debt ceiling, you have January 6th. The Democrats have moved further to the left and the Republicans to the right, so the middle is practically falling apart.”
Edward Al-Husseini, an analyst at investment firm Columbia Threadneedle, says the downgrade was not so much about doubts about America's creditworthiness as with the political landscape.
He says: “Fitch is trying to signal the debt ceiling process and the current fiscal trajectory. Both are views of US policy, not politics.”
But the financial outlook is daunting. Tax revenues are lagging more and more behind government spending as America's population ages and the cost of debt rises.
0308 The population crisis deepens
The independent Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) economic and budgetary forecasts, released a month ago, show that the largest the world's economy is expected to take up 5.8% of GDP this year, or about £1 trillion in revenue and government spending.
While much smaller than the deficit recorded during the pandemic, this account is expected to continue to grow both in monetary terms and relative to the size of the US economy.
The deficit is then projected to average 7. 3% of GDP each year for the next 30 years, more than double the average for the last half century.
The report says: “Over the past 100 years, deficits have only been so large during World War II and the pandemic .
«The rise in the deficit over the next three decades comes as spending, especially spending on interest, basic health care and welfare programs, outpaces income growth.»
As the CBO emphasizes, continued borrowing implies significant increase in debt. The country's public debt should reach a record high of 107% of GDP in 2029 and rise to 181% of GDP by the end of 2053.
According to Fitch's own forecasts, by 2025 debt will rise to 118% of GDP. It states that the average AAA-rated economy has a debt ratio of 39%.
America also spends far more on servicing its debts for every pound it collects in tax revenue, compared to countries with gold credit ratings. In other words, the US stopped behaving like an AAA economy some time ago.
0308 Federal debt will rise sharply
CBO warns that this world of high and rising debt has «significant economic and financial implications».< /p>< p>He added: “This will, among other things, slow economic growth, increase interest payments to foreign holders of U.S. debt, increase the risk of a financial crisis, increase the likelihood of other adverse effects that may manifest more gradually, and make the country’s financial position more vulnerable to higher interest rates.
«It could also lead to legislators feeling more limited in their policy choices.»
The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates from zero to more than 5% to try to tame inflation. . While chairman Jerome Powell has fared better than his British counterpart Andrew Bailey, Steven Zeng, a strategist at Deutsche Bank, says it makes a big difference.
He says: “Higher rates have led to lower tax revenues as the labor market weakens and potentially lower capital gains as assets fall in value in response to higher rates.
«Unfortunately, the current deficit trajectory is worrisome as additional Treasury borrowing adds to its debt load without helping to stimulate the economy.»
Zeng adds: “While several years of large deficits may not necessarily be a problem, the current US fiscal and debt trajectory is a legitimate cause for concern.
«The current debt trajectory is unsustainable».
Another problem is the shrinking workforce in America. Much has been done due to the rapid increase in economic inactivity in the UK, but today the US economy employs 1.9 million fewer people than before the pandemic.
0308 Change in male labor force participation by age
Most the decline was caused by men aged 35 to 44 years. These people should be at the peak of their careers, earning high salaries.
But they are also among those who started their careers after the financial crisis, which suggests that these scars remain deep.
CBO also believes there will be more deaths than births in America by 2042 as the population ages. “After this, population growth will be entirely dependent on immigration,” the document says.
This will reduce economic growth, reducing prospects in the country of opportunity.
While the CBO seeks to emphasize While long-term economic outlook is «difficult to predict», it is clear that the consequences of slowing growth are potentially dire.
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