By the end of 2024, Donald Trump may end up in a jail cell or return to the White House.
The path both are going through a flurry of court cases that the former president will have to fight in court at the same time as his return campaign.
Mr. Trump faces four potential criminal trials next year over allegations that he handled classified documents, a pornstar silence fee, and two separate election interference cases.
Proposed trial schedules are subject to change, but it is highly likely that Trump will spend as much time traveling through US courtrooms as he does on the campaign trail.
Although Trump will not have to attend every court hearing in every case, filing a White House bid while battling 91 criminal charges across four jurisdictions would certainly hurt.
And that's not to mention the plethora of civil lawsuits the 77-year-old is facing — the first of which will stand trial before the court in October this year.
Donald Trump could face four criminal trials next year with «fast trials» for each criminal case, which means they could come in quick succession.
Jack Smith, special counsel overseeing the Trump interference case in the federal election, proposed a January 2 start date.
It's just two weeks before the Iowa caucuses, the first vote in the 2024 Republican presidential race.
1608 Indictment Map Trump
The prosecutor handling the Georgia election case has proposed a trial date of March 4 next year. .
Mr. Trump is due to face trial in New York in the silence money case on March 25 next year and in Florida in the classified documents case on May 20, 2024.
< p>Whit Ayres, a leading Republican strategist, said: «There's a big difference in the world whether lawsuits start and end before or after Republicans start voting, and we don't know yet.»
But he also believes the order of cases will be «absolutely critical» to Trump's fate.
Jack Smith, Special the attorney overseeing the federal election interference case wants Donald Trump to stand trial in January. Photo: REUTERS
In his opinion, a «really serious case» such as Mr. Smith's election interference case would have had a much greater impact if it had been heard before the money suppression trial, which Mr. Ayres considers «very weak case.”
Mr. Smith's election interference case focuses heavily on the events leading up to the Capitol riots. The Special Prosecutor requested a date for the trial in early January.
Mr. Ayres said he would not be surprised if the request was granted.
«The judge [overseeing this] has been quite sympathetic to government affairs so far,» he told The Telegraph.
Have Donald Trump's chances of winning the US election in 2024 gone after the many allegations?
For Mr. Ayres, if the GOP candidate is first tried in one of his more serious cases and acquitted, «it effectively guarantees» Mr. Trump the party's nomination.
“On the other hand, if he is convicted, then all bets are off because no one has any idea what will happen,” he said.
In press briefings, Trump campaign staff insist that the former president «continues to be stronger.» every single day.»
The high financial cost of 91 criminal charges
But Trump's campaign bank balance says otherwise.
Financial records show Trump has received more than $53 million since early 2023. dollars. Small-dollar donors are outraged by his accusations.
But an analysis of financial information released by the AP showed that Trump has already spent at least $42.8 million this year, most of which is in legal fees.
Staff privately suggest that the true cost his representations have been much higher since his troubles with the law began.
Mr. Trump also covers the expenses of his valet-turned-co-defendant, Walt Nauta.
1608 Trump Entities. Spent millions on legal fees
Another 18 defendants appear in his case in Georgia, a ploy by prosecutors in the hope of getting one or more to «roll over.» Mr. Trump's political groups continue to lose money.
Mr. Ayres says the financial aspect of legal risks is less of a concern for a rich man like Mr. Trump.
Mr. Trump has previously been reluctant to finance his campaign from private sources.
But these Those who know him well believe that restraint will disappear if he has to choose between his personal fortune or prison.
The voters may have already decided
As for the time when he will have to digress from the election campaign, most Republican strategists believe that for Trump, whose name is widely known, this is less of a disadvantage than for other presidential candidates.
One Republican insider said, «Virtually every voter has already made up their mind about him, and almost nothing that happens will change that.»
Analysis by polling site FiveThirtyEight shows that voters' opinions more changeable.
1,708 Trump Polls
Mr. Trump, who claims the cases against him are a political «witch hunt», has seen a spike in the polls thanks to his first two indictments.
But data shows voters are less convinced of that argument since his latest federal indictment. indictment related to events related to the January 6 riots.
Moreover, Trump's ratings, including among Republicans, fell after he was charged in June with allegedly illegal possession of classified documents.
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This calls into question Trump's strategy of making the courtroom the stage for his campaign.
How will Mr. Trump overcome the obstacles he faces to win both contests next year?
Mr. Ayres, who has been advising prominent Republicans for more than three decades, admits that even he has no idea hasn't.
He said, “We've never seen anything like this before. Theoretically, one can run for president from prison. Will it be effective? I don't know.
«I mean, you're asking a bunch of questions about things that have no precedent.»
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