The demand for currency is growing, but banks are not ready to accept it. At the end of last week, the ruble accelerated its fall. After OPEC+’s decision to reduce oil production, the dollar on the Moscow Exchange reached 90 rubles. Meanwhile, holding foreign currency is becoming increasingly unprofitable for Russians. Gazprombank has joined the list of organizations that have fees for storing dollars. The new duty is called protective, and the bank’s decision is not the last. What to do with foreign currency now? Ivan Yakunin found out.
Such fluctuations as there were at the end of last week have not been on the market for more than a month and a half. Then exporters were obliged to sell 90% of the foreign currency they earned, and the ruble began to strengthen. But now it has become clear that this flow will be smaller, because Russia will voluntarily reduce supplies to the world market. Oil fell, and the dollar jumped from 88 rubles. up to 90 rub. Investment strategist of the Arkapital management company Sergei Suverov believes that this is not the limit:
“There are still factors that support the ruble, for example, the mandatory sale of export foreign currency earnings. But, on the other hand, in December the supply of ruble money supply increases due to government spending.
In addition, the demand for imported goods and tours abroad is increasing. The population also believes in the scenario of ruble devaluation next year and is already cautiously buying foreign currency at current levels. A moderate weakening of the ruble is quite possible to about 92 rubles. per dollar.”
Of course, there is demand, but banks are making it clear that they are not happy about this trend. Kommersant noticed that Gazprombank is introducing new tariffs for storing dollars in accounts. From the new year, the third largest bank in the country by assets will charge 12% on the balance monthly. It is important to note that this applies only to corporate clients. But the trend towards abandoning currency is obvious, and may soon affect individuals, says Yuri Belikov, Managing Director for Validation at Expert RA:
“The bank cannot make money on foreign currency liabilities for which it has to pay. The introduction of essentially protective commissions is connected with this. It is likely that this practice may spread further, but most likely among the largest banks. There this may affect both individuals and legal entities. If we talk about medium and small credit institutions, they have a chance to retain the ability to open accounts.”
Where and how to store currency is now an even more confusing question. Gazprombank is currently introducing restrictions only for dollar accounts because it has lost American counterparties. Everything is available in euros, but in case of problems, an individual will not be able to withdraw money – the Central Bank itself prohibits this. Other banks have lower storage fees, but there are fees for transfers, including incoming ones. Russians have fewer and fewer alternatives, concludes international financial consultant Isaac Becker:
“In other conditions, I would tell you: 50% are dollars, 50% are euros, and the star of happiness will always be shine on you. Now the situation is different. You need to look at the long horizon. Dollars – cash. But you don’t need to take them to banks. Yuan is not a great currency, but it is the only way to keep currency in banks. And, of course, some part in rubles. This speaks to the degree of uncertainty we currently find ourselves in. Such diversification simply averages out the possibility of losses.”
Back in 2022, the Central Bank called on Russians to abandon their currency, and the head of the Ministry of Finance, Anton Siluanov, called dollars “toxic candy wrappers.” The experience of the St. Petersburg Exchange reminded that investments outside the ruble zone carry considerable risks for Russians. However, it is not yet prohibited to leave this ruble zone. The regulator continues to say that it will not support restrictions on capital outflow.
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