The ruble started 2024 with a noticeable weakening. However, in the coming months the Russian currency will gradually strengthen, according to analysts interviewed by Kommersant FM. On January 3, during the first trading session on the Moscow Exchange, the dollar rose in price to 92 rubles. against the backdrop of sharp fluctuations in oil prices. Brent quotes initially fell below $75, but by the evening they had risen to $78. What factors will determine the exchange rate of the Russian currency?
“Kommersant FM” discussed this with the director of the analytical department of the investment company “Region” Valery Weisberg: “Trading is now low-liquid, most of the economy is on vacation, so movements may be different. But if we look at global markets, we will see how much oil prices have fallen over the holidays. It is quite possible that those betting on a decline in the Russian currency are simply winning back the movement in the oil market.
What will we see in the medium and long term? The first months of the year are usually characterized by reduced import volumes. Demand for currency from partners will be small. Quite good volumes of foreign exchange earnings will continue to come in, taking into account the estimated lags. Therefore, with the resumption of normal business activity from next week, I think the ruble will strengthen again and will cost less than 90 rubles.
Then the key rate increase will begin to take effect. It will also limit demand in some way. The ruble will remain relatively strong in the first quarter. Import substitution projects will probably still be completed more actively in 2024 than in 2023. And the second point is the reduction in export revenues. It is due both to a decrease in physical supply volumes and to the fact that the oil market is now feeling somewhat worse than it felt in both the fourth and third quarters of 2023. Therefore, from the point of view of export earnings, it will be quite difficult to finance imports, so I expect the ruble to be volatile and, in general, after a fairly good first quarter, it will most likely resume weakening.”
According to the BCS forecast, the average exchange rate of the Russian currency to the dollar in 2024 will be 86.6 rubles. Analysts expect the ruble to be more stable in 2023. It is expected that it will be supported by the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings. Although the decree is valid until April 2024, experts believe that the restrictions will remain in one way or another, and this will save the market from sharp exchange rate fluctuations.
In the next six months, the ruble may strengthen noticeably, and then a reverse trend will begin, suggests Alexander Davydov, an analyst at the InstaForex group of companies: “In the first half of the year, most likely, we will observe a gradual, clearly weak and the progressive movement of the ruble towards the strengthening of the ruble. In many ways, it will be determined by the mandatory sale of proceeds, but the practice of 2023 has shown that its influence is weak.
It is difficult to imagine that this effect will somehow intensify. The greatest impact will be exerted by the ever-increasing disparity in interest rates. Apparently, the Bank of Russia will further increase the interest rate, perhaps once, perhaps even twice, everything will depend on inflation, and will not start easing monetary policy too quickly.
At the same time, global central banks may even begin to reduce their interest rates in the spring. So, most likely, until the summer we will see such a gradual, gradual strengthening of the ruble. At the same time, a decrease in imports may lead to a strengthening of the national currency. And if the ruble strengthens with these trends, let’s say, below 85 rubles, then we, on the contrary, will see some intensification of imports, perhaps even an intensification of domestic consumption, including foreign goods, which will lead to a reverse trend.
And it is quite possible that already in the second half of 2024, perhaps by the end of summer, in the fall, most likely, we will observe a reverse movement towards a weakening of the ruble. Probably, the average exchange rate for the year will be closer to somewhere around 85-86 rubles, but by the end of the year we will be above this average value and again approach the 90 ruble mark. per dollar, but most likely slightly lower.»
Assessing the prospects for economic growth, BCS analysts came to the conclusion that after GDP growth of more than 3% in 2023, in 2024 -the upward movement of the indicator will slow down.
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