Erik ten Hag's future at Manchester United is far from certain. Photo: Getty Images/Charlotte Wilso
Unai Emery is a dangerous man – or rather it should be said that the Basque manager's track record since the day he walked into Aston Villa on November 4, 2022, raises some decidedly difficult questions in front of his fellow managers.
The last Premier League manager left in Europe and currently occupying perhaps the fourth and final Champions League spot, it has been another great week for Emery. His former club, former league leaders Arsenal, lost away on Sunday. A difficult European task in Lille in the Europa Conference League was finally decided by penalties on Thursday evening. He will face fellow Basque Andoni Iraola on Sunday. Both players cemented the region's current reputation as producing some of the best football managers in Europe.
In the waning days of Steven Gerrard's final defeat as Villa manager, the club were clear of the relegation zone on goals alone and had picked up just nine points from 11 games, at a rate of 0.8 per game. In his first full season, Emery has more than doubled that figure to 1.9, which was around only the ninth-highest net spend in the Premier League last summer. He has been an outstanding manager over the last two seasons and as things pick up again this summer he has set the bar very high indeed.
You could say that Emery came from a very low base. , and the room for improvement was enormous for an astute coach in his prime taking over from a newcomer in the Premier League. However, Villa's transformation, which took place at the end of October 2022, demonstrates what can be achieved if you find the right person.
When Gerrard was sacked, Villa were 10 points behind United in fifth. Erik ten Hag led United to third that season with 1.97 points per game. Emery contributed 1.96 points per game in 25 Premier League appearances last season after taking over from a two-game custodian. The signs that this was the right choice were obvious from the very beginning. Emery's Villa beat United in his first game in early November. Since the start of this season, their paths have really diverged.
Ten Hags United have dropped to 1.6 points per game. Under Emery, with 1.9 points per game, Villa are 13 points better than the United manager and in the Champions League, which many consider the minimum requirement for Ten Hag.
This is all relevant now because, with some of Europe's biggest clubs potentially awaiting new appointments, many will be asking the question: where is our Emery? They might even wonder if their Emery is really Emery himself, although one suspects Villa has something to say about that too. Distinctive style of play, clear individual improvement, good performances in cups and leagues. All of these things that Emery brought to Villa would be high on any list of demands.
Unai Emery has achieved outstanding results since joining Villa. Aston Villa Photo: Getty Images/Neville Williams
Ten Hag enters the FA Cup semi-final against Coventry City, for whom defeat would be one of the Cup's greatest shocks, in a state of decline. Two wins in their last nine games after a much better start to 2024 came with all the usual problems regarding a lack of personality in their playing style, inconsistent play and a general feeling of drift. However, there has yet to be a real front-runner to replace him, if replacing him is indeed what Ineos plans to do. Of course, the arrival of Jason Wilcox as technical director, joining new CEO Omar Berrada and the likely arrival of Dan Ashworth soon, will indicate that the wheels are in motion.
However, others who have indicated their interest in appointing a new manager are also in no hurry. Liverpool and Bayern Munich are yet to start next season after quite some time in preparation. Xabi Alonso has decided to stay at Bayer Leverkusen. Bayern's plan to reunite Julian Nagelsmann was quickly scrapped this week when the German Football Association [DFB] decided it did not want the issue to overshadow this summer's European Championship and extended his contract until 2026.
There have been times when the club's standout candidate was obvious: Jurgen Klopp at Liverpool in 2015 and probably Rafael Benitez in 2004. The same thing happened to Jose Mourinho, who played for Chelsea in 2004, winners of the Champions League the previous season. Manchester City built the club around Pep Guardiola's appointment, going so far as to use Manuel Pellegrini as a sort of stand-in for the following years.
This summer, clubs will need to think a little harder and re-examine the careers of those who might previously have been considered failures or simply felt unsuitable. Of course, the first step to managing United or Liverpool is to present yourself as befits the office, although this does not always require a stellar track record.
Emery's misadventures at Arsenal in a poorly equipped club At the time, supporting a coach who was not Arsene Wenger proved to be an anomaly in his career rather than the rule. Just as Klopp's final season at Borussia Dortmund, when he finished seventh in the Bundesliga, was an exception rather than a prelude to some career decline. There are a lot of people who can have these kinds of wrong turns, which don't necessarily reflect the overall picture of their career.
Emery's appointment was an inspiration for Villa. Just like Mohamed Salah, who was largely ignored by Premier League clubs in 2017 due to his time at Chelsea, has been a great signing for Liverpool. The Emery factor persists in the summer. The answer for clubs looking for a manager is obvious: they just need clarity of purpose to see it.
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