Suella Braverman (left) and Penny Mordaunt (right) are vying to replace Rishi Sunak in the battle for the soul of the Conservative Party < p>More than ten years ago, it was pressure from the Conservative Party's right that prompted David Cameron to commit to holding a referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union.
Four prime ministers later, Rishi Sunak finds he has a different headache, albeit one in a post-Brexit world.
While the burden on his predecessor was exacerbated by the election rebellion of Nigel Farage's UKI Party, the current prime minister is trying to head off a threat from another right-wing newcomer, Reform UK, of which he is honorary president. Mr Farage.
Reform, led by Richard Tice, is fighting to capture Tory votes in the traditional Labor Party heartlands with the high proportion of Leave supporters who backed Boris Johnson in 2019 to “get Brexit done”. The result could be a devastating collapse of the Red Wall Conservatives.
A poll analysis published by The Telegraph in January caused nervousness among Tory MPs over the suggestion that voter support for reform would be the deciding factor. in 96 Tory defeats.
In the short term, Mr Sunak can be expected to take his party to the right in an attempt to allay the concerns of right-wing Tory MPs and maintain control over voters concerned about issues such as immigration and the culture wars.
But when election time comes, wiping out Tory MPs in pro-Brexit regions could possibly provoke an equal and opposite reaction. Will we see a center court renaissance?
For now, pressure from the right remains. Buoyed by strong poll numbers, Theis had already managed to recruit Lee Anderson, the “Red Wall Rottweiler” whom No. 10 called his “secret weapon in the election.”
Hopes that Mr Anderson would persuade 2019 Conservative voters to stick with Mr Sunak were dashed when he abruptly resigned as Conservative deputy chairman in January and left the Conservatives entirely in March and declared his support for reform. This means that instead of persuading Red Wall voters to support the Tories, he will encourage them to take their business elsewhere: the exact opposite of what Mr Sunak had planned.
The saga was eerily reminiscent of 2014, when Douglas Carswell, a leading Eurosceptic Tory MP, defected to Ukip. On the eve of the annual Conservative conference, he was followed by Mark Reckless, another prominent critic of the EU.
Ten years later, and the parallels are clear. Just as a Tory spokesman warned when Mr Reckless switched sides that “a vote for the Independence Party is a vote for Ed Miliband”, the embattled Prime Minister is telling all who will listen, that support for reform is a gift to Sir Keir Starmer.
Indeed, Mr Farage said Mr Anderson's move was “bigger” news than the sensational defections of Mr Carswell and Mr Reckless . “It's seismic, it's colossal,” he said.
The threat to the Conservatives' fortunes is all too clear for Tory MPs, especially the “party of 2019” who won thanks to Mr Johnson.
So the Tory right is calling on the Prime Minister to make radical changes. In a sharp warning to their leader following Mr Anderson's defection, the New Conservatives, a group of Tory MPs elected after the Brexit vote, said his plan was failing and advised him to “change course urgently”.
< p >They called for a “bold new proposal” in keeping with the “spirit of 2019,” calling reducing immigration a priority for their constituents.
The demands provide a glimpse of the looming battle for the soul of the Conservative Party. On the other hand, centrist Tories vehemently argue that Mr Sunak is already generously catering to the right, despite misgivings among many on the right criticizing his decision to sack Suella Braverman from the Cabinet and brought back Lord Cameron last year.
In September, the Prime Minister relaxed the UK's net-zero emissions commitment, delaying a ban on petrol and diesel cars from 2030 to 2035 and easing the planned phase-out of gas boilers.
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And in December he unveiled a major package of measures to curb record levels of net migration, including a significant increase in the wage threshold for foreign workers.
Philip Davies, the Conservative MP for Shipley, who is married to Esther McVey, the Common Sense minister, argues that Mr Sunak is “pursuing far more of a Red Wall policy than Boris ever did”. The problem, in his view, is not what the Prime Minister does for the right, but how he communicates it.
“Despite the rhetoric, Boris has always been very liberal on immigration,” he said. .
“Rishi is not at all liberal on immigration issues. That's why he changed the rules so students can't bring dependents, he increased the amount you have to work before coming to the country or sponsor someone to come to the country… he has a much tougher policy on immigration . than Boris.”
He added: “The problem for Rishi is not what he does – I think he does everything right… The problem is perception.”
But others think that he can do much more. One right-wing MP said they believed there was a problem with inertia in No 10 and questioned why it had taken Mr Sunak so long to get his Rwanda Bill through parliament.
They added: “If he wants to win support for the Right of the Party, he needs to get one of these planes to take off.”
Asked if they thought Mr Sunak would be better off if he was more decisive, the MP joked: “Good luck with that.”
A shift to the right to Pacify restive MPs eyeing reform could mean Ms Braverman or, some say, Kemi Badenoch, would be well positioned to take the reins if Mr Sunak will fall on his sword after or even before the next elections.
But if the Red Wall collapses – as expected – many of the Brexit backers, former Labor Party strongholds now seen as a defection threat or putting pressure on Mr Sunak, for him to move on, they will lose their places. .
So in the event of a Tory defeat, with their influence greatly weakened, could we see a move towards the center – a reset of sorts?
In this scenario, Penny Mordaunt, the favorite of the masses, would be the obvious choice for leader. She even appears to be popular among right-wing MPs, who were reportedly planning to appoint her to replace Sunak. Tom Tugendhat, the security minister who has run for the top job in the past, may also have confidence in his chances again.
From Lord Cameron to Theresa May to Mr Johnson to Liz Truss to Mr Sunak. With seven different chancellors, 14 party chairmen and two early elections, the Tories have turned so many new pages since 2010 that a whole book could be written.
Perhaps the heavy loss at the Red Wall will embolden such people like Ms Braverman and Ms Badenoch, swing the pendulum further to the right, with tougher immigration rules, further concessions on Net Zero and a blanket crackdown on political correctness.
But once the dust settles after the election, it may turn out that they simply don't have the numbers needed for a right-wing candidate to win MPs' votes for the next leader.
p>For many Conservative MPs on both sides of the ideological spectrum split rates could not be higher.
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