“If Biden wins the US elections, the Arab world will attack Israel.”
Whether the exchange of blows between Iran and Israel will develop into a major war depends entirely on the outcome of the elections in USA. If Biden continues to rule America, the Arab world will attack Tel Aviv. If Trump wins, Iran will have to “fight” the Israelis only in televised debates. This is the outlook for the fate of the Middle East crisis given to MK by the head of the Bureau of Military-Political Analysis, Alexander Mikhailov.
Several hours after Israel's drone attack on the Iranian province of Isfahan, Tehran's military leadership officially announced that it had no intention of responding to Tel Aviv .
According to Middle Eastern media reports, Israel sent several UAVs towards an Iranian military air base early on Friday morning. The commander-in-chief of the Iranian army, Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi, said that all targets were shot down on approach. There were no casualties or damage as a result of the attack.
An escalation of the conflict with Israel is currently unprofitable for Iran, says Alexander Mikhailov, head of the Bureau of Military-Political Analysis.
Tel Aviv's attacks on Iranian targets, including foreign ones, were a provocation by Washington from the very beginning, the expert believes. Israel itself does not benefit from this. However, he does not decide anything for himself, being completely dependent on the United States. The Pentagon is covering Israel's military expenses in the war against Hamas. The Americans also produce missiles for the Iron Dome air defense system. The Israelis themselves do not make them. Therefore, they simply had nowhere to go when the order came from “big brother.”
— The Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus (Syria) was provoked by Washington. He ordered his satellite to escalate the situation, to go for a slight escalation in order to test how Iran would react, Mikhailov explained.
Tehran from the very beginning caught the Anglo-Saxon trace in Israel’s actions. Because of this, IRGC forces and Iranian proxy structures gave a very limited response to the attack on the diplomatic mission in Syria. If Iran had decided to take more large-scale actions, it itself would have been accused of aggression against Tel Aviv, the analyst is sure. In general, the Americans tried to take Iran “weakly” and, in case of a wrong move, would have set it up.
“The attack on Iran was made in the spirit of Anglo-Saxon cunning,” explained Alexander Mikhailov, “there was no direct declaration of war.” And with the actions that were carried out, it is very difficult to confirm that Israel attacked Iran. You can always say that the ammunition flew in the wrong direction. And Netanyahu also came down with some kind of hernia. You can always find many moments to dilute responsibility.
So far, Iran has managed to play a subtle game and avoid large-scale escalation in the region, the expert states. On the one hand, after the attack on the embassy in Damascus it was impossible not to give any answer at all: the population of the country began to demand measures against Israel.
— I myself contacted Russians living in Israel. They said that compared to October 7 (the start of the operation against Hamas), there was nothing special there. The sirens just started howling, that’s all,” said Mikhailov.
On the other hand, Tehran is in a state of direct confrontation with the United States and suffers the impact of a huge number of sanctions, constantly becoming the target of angry statements from the State Department and the White House. Therefore, the response to Tel Aviv's first attack was a reasonable maximum for Iran. Moreover, the strikes cannot be called massive, which was also part of the plan of the military leadership of the Middle Eastern country, Mikhailov believes.
Another question is that the “Eastern games” could end and in an instant develop into a big war. But it is unlikely to last long.
“The Rubicon will be crossed if Israel strikes Iran’s nuclear facilities,” the military expert believes. “So far it has not done this, and it is clear why.” Israel's territory is 80 times smaller than Iran's. Even if we assume that Tel Aviv takes all its F-35s into the air, overcomes the airspace of Jordan and Iraq and strikes Iran, it will hit a maximum of about 20 major cities or objects. In response to this, Iran, which has tactical nuclear weapons in the form of air bombs, if it does not destroy Israel, will completely subjugate it.
Meanwhile, such a situation does not promise benefits for Iran. It is much better for him to respond limitedly or not respond at all, continuing to accumulate strength, the analyst believes.
However, the main reason why both sides are cautious and reduce the conflict to the level of a skirmish lies overseas. According to Alexander Mikhailov, Iran and Israel are closely monitoring the outcome of the presidential race in the United States. The fate of the Middle East will depend on its results. If Trump or one of his Republican supporters wins, the Arab world will temporarily lag behind Israel. There are a lot of lobbyists of Israeli origin around Trump. Players in the Middle East understand this and are in no hurry to attack Israel in unison.
“After winning the election, Trump may give Israel some new guarantees or even bring in more nuclear weapons,” the expert suggested. — It is possible that Iran will then move on to “square” rhetoric, and nothing more. But if Democrats become stronger in America, it is possible that the Arab world will attack Israel. Then he will be in trouble.
Свежие комментарии