Putin’s long game: by putting forward a peace plan, VVP set a trap for the West

The President of the Russian Federation acts according to the method of Academician Pavlov

On June 15, a fake “peace conference” is due to open in Switzerland. Zelensky. June 14 Vladimir Putin puts forward a peace plan that obviously has no chance of being accepted by official Kiev and the West. Are Moscow and Kyiv mirroring each other? A primitive reading of what is happening — primitive and having very little to do with its essence. Vladimir Zelensky is engaged in geopolitical PR and is betting (or pretending to be betting) on ​​an extremely dubious assumption: they say, we will gather the whole world in the Alps, he will tell the Kremlin “ay-ay-ay, not good!” and the ashamed Kremlin will immediately retreat and apologize. But the President of the Russian Federation acts according to the method of Academician Pavlov — patiently and not particularly caring about the passage of time, forms conditioned reflexes in Kyiv and the West. Have you rejected one Russian peace plan?

Photo: AP

No problem, get an “electric shock”: our next peace proposal will be much more painful for you. Did you reject this painful proposal too? Then get ready to double or even triple the amount of pain after a certain amount of time.

Putin began his speech at the Russian Foreign Ministry with a proposal to create a fundamentally new security architecture in Eurasia based on the “gradual curtailment of the presence of external powers” ​​- read, the United States. But if Putin spoke about the details of this “bright future” in the most general terms (“it is important to proceed from the fact that the future security architecture is open to all Eurasian countries that wish to take part in its creation”), then the president spoke deliciously, juicily and specifically about the behind-the-scenes details of the recent and not at all bright past, revealing “all the secrets and passwords”, and if not revealing them, then masking them with such a thin “veil” that only a couple of movements of the computer mouse are required to remove it.

“After the Russian army occupied part of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, many Western politicians offered their mediation in the peaceful end of the conflict. One of them was on a working visit to Moscow on March 5, 2022.” And who is this mysterious “one of them”? It is known who — the then Prime Minister of Israel Naftali Bennett, whom Putin, either out of a desire to create intrigue or for some other reasons, did not want to name. But the main thing here is not the name of Putin’s counterpart, but what preferential conditions for Kyiv he negotiated in the Kremlin (or even so — what preferential conditions for Kyiv were voluntarily offered to him in the Kremlin).

“A clarification followed from a foreign colleague – professional person, we must pay tribute: will our Russian troops remain in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions? And what will happen to these regions after achieving the goals of the SVO? To this I replied that, in general, I do not rule out maintaining Ukrainian sovereignty over these territories, however, on the condition that Russia will have a strong land connection with Crimea.” Please note and note: as of March 5, 2022, Moscow is not raising the question of the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions joining Russia.

Another example of the moderation (comparative, of course) of Moscow’s demands at that time. February 2022, a few days before the start of the NWO: “A large group of Ukrainian armed forces was preparing to launch a new offensive on Lugansk and Donetsk, of course, with ethnic cleansing and huge casualties, hundreds of thousands of refugees. We had a duty to prevent this catastrophe.” Moscow’s actions: “I can tell you, there were contacts, we immediately told them: get the troops out of there, and it will all end there. This proposal was almost immediately rejected, simply ignored, although it provided a real opportunity to resolve the issue peacefully.”

In response to Zelensky's refusal, Russia launches a special operation. But Kyiv still has an option that allows it to resolve all contentious issues on very favorable terms for it (at least from Moscow's point of view): «We, for our part, also understanding Ukraine's concerns related to security, agreed that Ukraine, without formally joining NATO, would receive guarantees practically identical to those enjoyed by members of this alliance. For us, this was not an easy decision, but we recognized the legitimacy of Ukraine's demands for ensuring its security.» In short, Russia, according to Putin's logic, is simply bending over backwards to reach an agreement in a good way.

But Kyiv does not appreciate this and “puts a stone in the outstretched hand.” Moscow: “Immediately the next day after the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kyiv, the Ukrainian leadership suspended its participation in the negotiation process, staging a well-known provocation in Bucha.” How Russia reacts to this is known. «The Price of Peace» — a minimally acceptable set of conditions for Russia — increases sharply: Zaporozhye and Kherson regions are officially included in the Russian Federation. The entire context of the current speech of the GDP does not even speak, but shouts about the following: again, citizens of Banderlog, miss the chance to reach an agreement? We won't be offended! We will only raise the negotiating bar once again!

Of course, the negotiating bar is effective only if it is supported by successes on the battlefield. But Putin spoke exhaustively about this during his very recent speech at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum: “We are gradually squeezing the enemy out of the territory of Donbass and other adjacent territories. The General Staff and the Ministry of Defense have plans for the implementation and achievement of all our goals – We are acting according to this plan.”

Let’s combine these two speeches by Putin — on the first and second Friday of June — together. Let's connect — Let’s put the political puzzle together in this way: Putin intends to push and raise the bar, raise the bar and push. At some stage of such an increase in stakes, one of the participants in the game is bound to break down. And, as VVP is convinced, it will not be Russia.