The ruble ended last week strengthening against the leading world currencies. The Central Bank set the dollar exchange rate for the weekend and July 1 at 85.74 rubles. This is more than 2 rubles. below the figures on June 14. Then the regulator for the first time announced the exchange rate without trading in American and European currencies on the stock exchange. Since that time, the ruble has been extremely volatile: it traded in the range of 82.5 rubles. up to 89 rub. per dollar.
Such instability of the exchange rate should not be observed for a long time, says Yaroslav Kabakov, director of strategy at Finam: “When sanctions arise against NCC, this leads to significant volatility and a change in the mechanisms for buying and selling currency. The market is transforming. In this situation, such volatility is quite understandable. After a certain amount of time, it will decrease.
The Central Bank determines the exchange rate based on quotes from the largest banks. It is likely that the methodology for the current period is imperfect. The Central Bank rate is clearly different from the over-the-counter market. It is not normal. After a certain amount of time, these courses must correspond to each other.”
In June, the yuan to ruble exchange rate was also unstable. At one point, the Chinese currency was trading around 11 rubles, having fallen by almost 7% in a day. Now it is at 11.7 — since the beginning of 2023, the ruble has strengthened against the yuan by more than 8%. How did the sharp changes in the exchange rate after the cancellation of exchange trading in the dollar and euro affect business calculations? Kommersant FM discussed this with Alexander Lipilin, executive director of the wine trading company Fortwine: “I would not say that this creates any great discomfort. Yes, the last two weeks the fluctuations have been greater than a month or two earlier, which is typical for this season.
In June, the exchange rate always changes greatly – it is the tax period with the closing of the financial year for many companies. Therefore, I don’t think that this is related specifically to the sanctions. Let's see what happens next. This may be due to the fact that the exchange rate is determined not on the stock exchange, but by interbank settlements. Not enough time has passed to draw any conclusions. How close is the exchange rate published by the Central Bank to the real one? When you are not just a speculator on the stock exchange, but work, you have an importing, exporting company, then transactions are tied to the need to pay suppliers, you are, in principle, forced to buy at the current exchange rate that exists.
If you constantly make these transactions, for example, several times a week, then at some point you win, at some point you lose. Therefore, globally, simply no one pays attention to fluctuations around 1-2%. So far, I have not noticed a discrepancy between the rate at which currency is sold to us and the rate published by the Central Bank.”
Last week, market participants predicted a sharp rise in prices for imported equipment and electronics, wrote “Kommersant”. Due to sanctions against the Financial Message Transmission System of the Bank of Russia, foreign trade settlements will become more complicated, which is why goods may become more expensive by 15-20%, and turnover with some countries will noticeably decrease.
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