The ruble exchange rate remains strong, despite the sanctions. The market's confidence in the calculation method is decreasing. The Vedomosti newspaper reported on investor sentiment. Its sources noted that instruments pegged to the dollar and euro no longer appear on the Moscow Exchange. Previously, their price depended on the exchange value of the currency, but after sanctions against the Moscow Exchange, it became impossible to calculate this indicator. Instead, exchange instruments turned out to be tied to the official exchange rate of the Central Bank, but not all market participants trust it, which is why they are in no hurry to issue new quasi-dollar securities. Is there any reason for skepticism? Ivan Yakunin found out.
It would seem that there are no secrets. If previously the official rate was formed on the basis of exchange trading, now they look at bank transactions concluded before 15:30 Moscow time.
This is exactly what they do everywhere in the world, writes the Central Bank. But financial market expert Alexey Bushuev has heard all kinds of conspiracy theories: “There are a lot of gossip and rumors on the market about exactly how the Central Bank considers this rate. This confirms the thesis about the low level of trust. It gets to the point where people look at the websites of some mafia exchangers in Los Angeles and build a course based on their data.”
The logic of the skeptics can be understood. On the last day of trading on the stock exchange, the dollar froze at around 89 rubles. The first official exchange rate of the Central Bank, calculated using the new methodology, turned out to be stronger — 88 rubles, now it is already 87 rubles. For comparison, judging by futures, it should still be 89 rubles. But reliance on the interbank market could not but affect quotes, says investment consultant Andrei Kochetkov: “In the over-the-counter market, there can indeed be negotiated transactions when a certain rate is set lower or even higher, when one or another actor was interested in the speed of the transaction. It turns out that they are guided by someone’s private opinion and interest, and this can very much diverge from cross-courses.”
Judging by them, everything coincides. Exchange quotes of the yuan roughly follow the official dollar exchange rate. Both are becoming cheaper, and Elvira Nabiullina explained this by the stagnation of imports, which have recently been difficult to pay for. In addition, the latest report told skeptics that liquidity in the OTC market is increasing. The dollar trading volume is already 25 billion rubles. in a day. But NES research director Ruben Enikolopov is not convinced:
“If these are two transactions of 12.5 billion rubles, this means that in fact the market is very illiquid. And if these are a thousand small transactions, as was the case on the stock exchange, then you can trust this more.
The market has shrunk, there is very little liquidity. When you have a small number of transactions, you can average honestly, using manuals and so on, the rate is still very volatile. Nowadays, any course should be treated with skepticism.”
The head of the Central Bank said that she understood the market’s concerns and promised to publish a detailed calculation methodology, but so far this has not happened. Forbes, citing sources, wrote that if sanctions are imposed against the Moscow Exchange, the regulator will launch a new platform — an aggregator of offers from the largest banks. The average of these values, as planned, will be the new market rate. This didn't happen either. The president of the Finam holding, Vladislav Kochetkov, believes that there is no need to do anything: “We often have a backlash. As soon as the state starts convincing people of something, everyone immediately thinks that it will be completely the opposite.
If I were the Central Bank, I would simply let the market get used to the new reality. This will be enough not even for the coming months, but for the coming weeks.”
The current situation in Russia is reminiscent of Chinese practice. There, too, the Central Bank forms the exchange rate based on interbank transactions and announces it at the beginning of the trading day. In just a few minutes, Bloomberg traditionally publishes the expectations of 30 analysts. If the difference is noticeable, then the regulator is sending a signal. No conspiracy theories.
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