Biden’s likely imminent departure from the political arena raises doubts about relations between Kyiv and Washington
A cat, as you know, has nine lives. But how many political lives does US President Joe Biden have left? if, of course, there is any left at all? We will probably get an answer very soon – if not in the coming days, then in the coming weeks. In 1976, then-British Prime Minister Harold Wilson unexpectedly resigned, saying he never intended to remain in office beyond the age of 60. Many years later, it turned out that Wilson learned that he had an early stage of dementia, and decided to leave the heights of power, without waiting for the moment when the disease began to manifest itself in obvious form. Faced with a similar situation, the current head of the United States made the exact opposite decision. The result is now a political “regicide” stretched out over time: his own comrades are carefully removing Biden from the presidential race.
< span class="article__picture-author" itemprop="author">Photo: kremlin.ru
Realizing that an open attack on their leader will sink not only himself, but the entire Democratic Party, the leadership of this wing of American politics is acting extremely carefully and cautiously. No direct attacks. No statements in the style of “let’s take him out if he doesn’t leave on his own.” Instead, a political signal of similar meaning is broadcast in a veiled, hidden, but at the same time completely understandable form. What, for example, do other “big people” think about Biden’s dilemma? Democratic Party – former President Barack Obama, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi? Nothing is officially known about this. But all-knowing “knowledgeable sources” are reporting that they believe Biden should go. And before that, all the same (or maybe different – it doesn’t matter) “informed sources” made it clear that current Democratic leaders in Congress hold exactly the same opinion.
And so day after day, drop by drop, blow by blow. Biden is gradually being pulled out of the chair as the Democratic presidential candidate – millimeter by millimeter, centimeter by centimeter. We are close to another «big moment» American politics — a remake of the situation in 1968, when then-Democratic US President Lyndon Johnson stunned the nation by declaring: “I will not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party to serve as your President for another term.”
And if this moment does not come – Biden may resist, – then this will only increase the chances of the Democratic Party losing both the presidential elections and the congressional elections. I am one of those pessimists who believe that all these American domestic political squabbles are unlikely to have a big impact on the policy of official Washington in relation to the Ukrainian crisis. But since a pessimist is a “well-informed optimist,” I share information that indicates the possibility of a different development of events. Former US ambassador to Germany under Trump and a candidate for a high position in his potential new administration, Richard Grenell, in an interview with Bild about possible contacts between the future US president and the leader of the Russian Federation: “Biden has not spoken to him (Putin) once in three years.” ;MK"). I think that communicating with people – this is a tactic. This is not a goal, not a solution. But this takes us there.»
And here is Grenell’s opinion about which part of the collective West should be responsible for supporting official Kyiv: “It (the conflict in Ukraine — MK) is in your backyard. If there was a war in Mexico, we would be doing most, if not all, of the work. And we certainly would not have turned to the Germans for help if there had been a war in Mexico.” Somehow this does not look very much like a convincing demonstration of transatlantic solidarity and a willingness to support Ukraine “as long as it takes.” And here’s something else that doesn’t really look like it: a symptomatic article in The New York Times. Headline: “Putin is counting on the fading of American interest in Ukraine. This could be a good bet.» Key message from the text: «The direction of American foreign policy may be moving closer to Mr. Putin's expectations: an inward-looking worldview that cares far less about Ukraine than the Russians do makes it only a matter of time before Washington abandons Kiev, as, according to his critics, Afghanistan was abandoned in 2021.
Here's how The New York Times explains its prediction: «President Biden, Ukraine's most important ally, finds himself in the midst of the biggest political crisis of his presidency, with fellow Democrats calling on him to quit the presidency. race. Former President Donald Trump, the top pollster, has chosen one of the most vocal critics of American aid to Kyiv as his running mate. And at the Republican National Convention on Thursday night, Mr. Trump reaffirmed his pledge to end the fighting and warned Mr. Putin of “World War III.”
In addition, the organ of the American political elite cites the following data on the results of a public opinion poll: “While 50% of American adults told the Pew Research Center in April that limiting Russia’s influence should be a top foreign policy priority, only 23% said the same about supporting Ukraine. And when YouGov polled Americans in June about 28 policies proposed by Mr. Biden, the least popular of them — with an approval rate of 30% — was “a promise of 10 years of U.S. military support for Ukraine in its war against Russia.” Is that enough honey for our ears? Even if it is not, it is still time for the tar. As The New York Times hints, in the past — such as in the case of the 2016 U.S. election — Moscow has misjudged the future “vector of American foreign policy.”
And so, unfortunately, everywhere: honey always goes together with tar. Zelensky in an interview with the BBC about the prospects for ending the conflict in his country: “This does not mean that it is necessary to recapture the entire territory in battles. I believe that this can be achieved through diplomacy.» But limit ourselves to quoting only this passage of the Kyiv leader – distort the entire context of the interview: “The key to this is long-range weapons. Please convince our other partners to lift restrictions.” In other words, nothing has changed: the West and Kyiv will resort to “the help of diplomacy” not out of the kindness of their hearts, but only if they feel strong pressure. And in Moscow they very clearly understand this feature of their Western “partners” (to use this word now without quotation marks would demonstrate excessive cynicism). After the 2016 US elections, the Kremlin responded to the expulsion of Russian diplomats from Washington by inviting the children of American diplomats in Moscow to a Christmas tree party within its walls. Eight years later, there will be nothing like it.
The main news of this Friday – The Wall Street Journal journalist Evan Gershkovich was sentenced to 16 years in a maximum security colony. A two-part forecast: Gershkovich will definitely not serve 16 years. But his exit from the colony will not take place without appropriate, similar reciprocal steps (which ones, we do not know) on the part of the US authorities. Bash for bash, concession in exchange for concession – This is the only way “dialogue” can be built now. Moscow and Washington. And whether Biden leaves or stays is unlikely to change this logic.
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