The yuan exchange rate has been falling on the Russian market for the third day in a row, having updated the minimum since the beginning of the month — 11.68 rubles/CNY. At the same time, the monthly maximum was updated by the trading volume, having exceeded 140 billion rubles, while in the previous three weeks it did not rise above 100 billion rubles. To a large extent, this is due to tax payments, since even taking into account the government's concessions, companies are actively selling export earnings. Upon completion of payments to the budget, the Chinese currency can quickly recoup losses, returning above the level of 12 rubles/CNY.
During trading on Thursday, July 25, the yuan exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange dropped to 11.68 rubles/CNY, the lowest value since the beginning of the month. As a result of trading, the rate stopped at 11.77 rubles/$, which is 4 kopecks. below the Wednesday closing values. In three days, the Chinese currency lost more than 20 kopecks. (1.7%).
The update of the monthly minimum occurred against the backdrop of increased investor activity.
Trading volume in Chinese currency for delivery “tomorrow” amounted to RUB 142 billion on Thursday., one and a half times higher than Wednesday’s figure and more than double the average value in the previous three weeks (when on none of the days the result exceeded 100 billion rubles).
The increase in trading volumes and the strengthening of the ruble is facilitated by the approaching tax payments. According to Zenit Bank, this coming Monday, July 29, Russian companies must complete the payment of VAT, mineral extraction tax and excise taxes in the amount of RUB 3.2 trillion. In this situation, even reducing the requirements for the mandatory return of export proceeds from 60% to 40% is not able to stop the influx of foreign currency into the local market. “The influence of the tax period on the domestic market is intensifying against the backdrop of continued difficulties with external payments, which in the short term lead to a reduction in demand for foreign currency,” notes Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank.
The ruble is supported by expectations of an increase in the key rate by the Bank of Russia. Most analysts are inclined to raise it by 2 percentage points at once, to 18%, which is positive for the national currency. According to Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank, deposit rates will increase by a comparable amount, which will further increase the attractiveness of ruble savings. In addition, increased loan rates will reduce consumer demand and demand for imports (and, as a consequence, demand for currency).
The dynamics of the Chinese currency exchange rate could also be influenced by changes in China's monetary policy.
“The other day, the People's Bank of China lowered the base lending rate by 10 bp for the first time since August 2023. p., up to 3.35%,” notes BCS World of Investments analyst Denis Buivolov.
However, in the coming days, analysts expect the ruble to strengthen further. However, after the completion of tax payments, the Russian currency will be without its main support factor. Therefore, according to Denis Buivolov, from the first days of August, the yuan exchange rate may return to the region of 12 rubles/CNY, and the official dollar exchange rate — to 87–88 rubles/$.
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