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  5. The foreign exchange market is divided into two

Бизнес

The foreign exchange market is divided into two

Against the background of a stable yuan exchange rate at exchange trading, sharp changes in the dollar exchange rate on the over-the-counter market have been noticeable in recent days. On Monday, the rate reached almost 92 rubles/$, having added more than 6 rubles over the week. In previous times, emerging imbalances in foreign exchange markets were corrected by liquidity flows through arbitrage transactions, but the introduction of sanctions against the Moscow Exchange reduced their activity. The high supply of currency from the Central Bank and exporters at the same time strengthens the exchange position of the ruble.

On Monday, August 12, the Bank of Russia set the official dollar exchange rate at 89.95 rubles/$, which is almost 2 rubles higher than the previous value. At the same time, during trading on the over-the-counter market, the American currency rate reached 91.8 rubles/$, which is 3.9 rubles higher than Friday's closing value. Even taking into account the correction at the end of the trading day, when the rate returned to 91 rubles/$, over the past week it has added more than 6 rubles.

However, the peculiarity of the current situation on the currency market is connected not so much with the rate of growth of the American currency, but with the abnormal resistance of the yuan exchange rate to this.

Since the yuan exchange rate is quite strongly tied to the dollar exchange rate, fluctuations in the latter have always led to similar movements in the Chinese currency. Even after the isolation of the Russian market, this rule was in effect, including thanks to arbitrageurs who, seeing an anomaly, bought or sold currencies with subsequent reverse transactions in order to make a profit due to the difference in rates on different currency markets.

According to Moscow Exchange data, the yuan rose by only 2 kopecks on Monday. (0.13%), to 11.89 rubles/CNY, and in five days the increase did not exceed 5 kopecks. (0.4%). “The ruble (against the yuan) is favored by high oil prices and a trade surplus, a decrease in imports, the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings for the largest exporters, sales of yuan from reserves as part of budget operations, high ruble interest rates,” lists Sovcombank chief analyst Mikhail Vasiliev.

At the same time, after the cessation of trading in toxic currencies on the Moscow Exchange in the second half of June, the activity of arbitrageurs also began to decline, as fewer and fewer foreign banks and their subsidiaries were ready to conduct exchange transactions.

«Arbitrageurs, which may be companies making payments to China, probably do not want to get involved with sanctioned organizations and take on the risks of falling under secondary sanctions,» says Mikhail Vasiliev. As noted by the head of the economic and industry analysis department at PSB, Evgeny Loktyukhov, the low activity of arbitrageurs can be indicated by the difference in the dollar and Chinese currency rates on the Russian and international markets, which reached 3.5% on Monday afternoon, although in previous days it was 1-1.5%.

Difficulties with making payments in yuan lead to an increase in importers' demand for the American currency, which increases pressure on the ruble exchange rate on the over-the-counter market, experts say. Evgeny Loktyukhov also notes that autumn is approaching — a time of increased demand for goods and increased imports. In addition, in his opinion, «the worsening situation in the Kursk region is prompting some conservative investors to increase their investments in currency.»

The stronger the sanctions pressure on the financial infrastructure, the less effective (in terms of reaction to various factors) the exchange currency market will be, analysts believe. «Real export-import transactions are likely to move to the over-the-counter market. Therefore, the yuan exchange rate on the over-the-counter market seems more indicative than the exchange rate,» notes Mikhail Vasiliev. The situation may change if the geopolitical situation improves or if alternative payment schemes are established that will not be controlled by the West, and if there is political will in China and other friendly countries, experts say. According to Evgeny Loktyukhov, a narrowing of the spread in the absence of a more prompt reaction from the regulator and the government can be expected closer to the end of the month, by the next tax period.

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