It was a campaign gift that saved Rishi Sunak from hitting the hammer of a triple defeat in a by-election: London's ultra-low emission zone (Ulez).
If the prime minister had lost Boris Johnson's old seat in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, it would be a symbol of the main charge against his leadership of the Conservatives.
Mr. Johnson was «the Carlsberg candidate», as his supporters always liked to say, a Conservative who could win in parts of the country that no one else could.
That he oversaw a string of defeats in by-elections on the way to being removed from Downing Street last year is hushed up by loyalists who still declare him the ultimate winner of the election.
The reverse — the lack of electoral success — is Sunak's weakness, which his domestic critics endlessly target. They like to point out that he never won a general election, instead inheriting a majority in Mr Johnson's House of Commons in 2019.
He lost to Liz Truss, the man who lost to the salad, as Conservative MPs privately joke. Last fall, he eventually became Conservative leader, avoiding a party vote.
A defeat in Mr. Johnson's old foothold, combined with defeats in Somerton and Selby counties, would have drawn attention to Mr. Sunak's limited record of victories.
Instead, the Tories managed to hold on with just 495 votes. And the cause, according to both Labor and Conservatives, was Ules.
BY-OPTIONS — Uxbridge and South Ruislip
The policy, designed to combat climate change, means that drivers must pay £12.50 a day if they want to enter central London in vehicles that do not meet emission standards.
Sadiq Khan, the Labor mayor of London, wants to significantly expand the scheme to include Essex, Hertfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Kent and Surrey, as well as Uxbridge.
The Tories seized on Ulez in the by-election, making him practically the only topic their candidate, Steve Tuckwell, and those who supported him wanted to talk about.
And it worked. On Friday, senior Labor MPs, including Angela Reiner, deputy leader, questioned Ulez's expansion. This helped cover up huge Tory losses in the other two places.
«When you don't listen to the voters, you don't win the election»
Labor Deputy Leader Angela Rayner reflects on her party's failure to win Uxbridge by-election https://t.co/3H2Ch2BOME pic.twitter.com/KS9XJIOCya
— BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) July 21, 2023
Mr Khan's team will argue that this is a one-off action that focuses on a pocket of resistance in long-held Tory seat.
The result calls into question what was supposed to be his procession to a third term as Mayor of London. The Tories, along with anti-Ules candidate Susan Hall, could very well run a copycat campaign.
Labor's extensive polling in London, as well as the party's increased control of the capital over the past decade, may give Mr Khan some political space to resist pressure for change.
But there are also questions for Sir Keir Starmer. The Labor leader, who needs to win the UK in the next general election, keeps politics at arm's length without fully supporting it.
Is he showing support now after the voters of Uxbridge have shown two fingers? Or a hint of opposition? After all, Mr. Khan is out of his control as a mayor, not a member of parliament.
But the questions don't end there. There is a bigger picture: how much public support is there for climate action that causes immediate financial problems?
Sir Keir cited the pursuit of green energy as one of the top five challenges for any future Labor government, in particular trying to achieve clean electricity by 2030.
Does this dampen his zeal to become a carbon-free country by 2050?
Labour has already abandoned one previous green promise — to borrow £28bn a year straight from the government to fund a move towards zero balance — as the election sharpened its field of vision.
Changed financial reality was put forward as an explanation, with interest rates skyrocketing, and the target figure would now only be reached at some uncertain point in the future.
But the political dynamic was the same as in Uxbridge. When it comes to brawling, are Britons willing to vote short-term financial troubles in favor of long-term climate gains?
Conservatives are also preoccupied with their own internal debate on the topic, and critics of net zero are sure to take advantage of Uxbridge's circumstances to try to force Mr. Sunak's government to change.
There are countless points of friction. Should there still be a levy on hydrogen somewhere along the supply line to help raise funds for its expansion, given that it is more environmentally friendly than traditional fossil fuels?
Should the ban on new gas-fired boilers remain from 2035? Or a ban on the sale of new diesel and petrol vehicles in the UK from 2030? These battles must take place within the Tory Party.
Like all government promises, promises made with a deadline of ten years or more can be too easy. However, as they come into view, the political realities can become much more complicated.
Ulez saved Mr. Sunak from a triple defeat. The conclusions he and Sir Keir drew about the popularity of the zero net income policy could change the dynamics of next year's general election.
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