A dwindling number of voters believe Labor is capable of winning a majority

Danny Beals of the Labor Party (left) lost to Steve Tuckwell in the by-elections in Uxbridge and South Ruislip in July. Photo: Jordan Pettitt/PA

Only one in three voters currently expect Labor to win a majority in the next general election.

In the new vote, Redfield & According to a Wilton Strategies poll, about 33% of respondents said they thought a majority Labor government would be most likely if elections were held in the next six months.

The number recorded in the survey. 30 July was the lowest recorded for Labor's majority victory since 28 May.

This came after Labor suffered mixed by-election results on 20 July as the party failed to win a seat in Uxbridge and South Ruislip but managed take control of Selby and Ainsty.

The Tory victory in Uxbridge and South Ruislip surprised many in Westminster, as Labor's failure to win a seat was widely blamed on Sadiq Khan's imposition of an ultra-low emission zone fee for polluting vehicles.

The Uxbridge defeat represented a serious a blow to Sir Keir Starmer's hopes of building electoral momentum ahead of the next general election, likely next year.

While a third of people thought a Labor majority was the most likely outcome in the general election about 13% cited a minority Labor-led administration as the most likely outcome.

This meant that a total of 46% of people expected Labor to be in power in some form after the next election.

What do you think is the most likely outcome of the next general election?

At the same time, 19% said they thought a Conservative majority was the most likely outcome, while 10% chose a Conservative-led minority, totaling 29%.

Expectation for a Labor majority was at its lowest level in nine weeks. It was 31% on May 28, but rose to 38% in June and then to 39% in mid-July.

Overall, Redfield & The Wilton Strategies poll showed Labor 15 points ahead of the Tories, down two points from the previous poll taken on 23 July.

Labor received 43% of the vote, down two points, while The Conservative Party remained unchanged at 28%.

The Liberal Democrats lost three points from 11%, Reform UK rose one to seven percent and the Green Party rose one to five percent.