Ukraine can break through the rest of the defensive lines of Russia by the end of the year

According to US intelligence analyst Trent Mol, the counteroffensive in Ukraine is going well. Photo: Shutterstock

Ukrainian forces could break through the rest of Russia's defensive lines by the end of the year, a leading U.S. intelligence analyst said.

Kiev forces have a «real opportunity» to break through the third and final trench system, Trent Mol , director of analysis The Washington Defense Intelligence Agency told the Economist.

This will give Ukrainian forces an open path to the sea where they can drive a wedge between Russian occupying forces, a key objective of the counteroffensive.

The absence of Sergei Surovikin, the former Russian invasion commander who oversaw the construction of defensive lines, and Wagner mercenaries from the battlefield helps the advance, Mr. Mol said.

“If we had this conversation Two weeks ago, I was would be a little pessimistic,” he told The Economist. «Their breakthrough on the second defensive belt… is actually quite significant.»

Ukraine is believed to have reached the second line of the so-called Surovikin Line late last week, when its fighters were geolocated in a network of Russian trenches near the Zaporozhye village of Verbove.

The village, located on Kiev's main counter-offensive line, is an integral part of the defensive network Moscow defending its land bridge between the mainland and occupied Crimea.

0309 Ukraine's upcoming counter-offensive

Andriy Kovalev, spokesman for the Ukrainian general's headquarters, said his forces were «fixing themselves on the reclaimed borders» in a TV interview on Thursday.

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Ukraine is likely holding part of Russia's defensive lines on the northwest corner of Verbove.

Geolocation footage circulated on social media on Thursday shows Russian troops striking a new Ukrainian position in the woods in this area.

p>Western officials expect progress to be slow.

Russian sources said Moscow occupying forces have launched counterattacks on Robotine, a nearby village recently liberated by Kiev, in an attempt to make the settlement attractive, which is still disputed.

Kiev hopes to break through Russia's defensive lines before moving on to the port city of Melitopol on the Azov coast, effectively splitting Moscow's forces to the south and east and cutting the land bridge.

Mr Mol described the recent successes as «significant before telling The Economist that there was a «real possibility» of violating the rest of the clauses — a turn of phrase suggesting a 40-50 percent chance in the intelligence world.

Last week, Gen. Oleksandr Tarnavsky, leader of Ukraine's southern counteroffensive , said Russia devoted 60 percent of its time and resources to building a first line of defense, believing Kiev would never break it.

But Western officials still expect progress to be slow despite that there would be few Russian reinforcements behind the first line.

This week, one of them said that Kiev had made «gradual but methodical progress» that was «slower than expected a couple of months ago.»

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