The official dollar exchange rate has been falling for three days in a row. On August 2, the Central Bank set the value of the American currency at 85.78 rubles, which is about 30 kopecks lower than the previous figure. The Russian currency also strengthened against the euro by almost 1%, to 92.8 rubles per unit. The ruble has been growing for the past few days, despite the end of the July tax period, during which exporters sell currency to transfer funds to the budget.
What is the reason for the strengthening of the ruble? And how long will it last? Albert Koroev, Head of the Stock Market Experts Department at BCS World of Investments, believes that in a few months the Russian currency will be much weaker: “The dynamics of the ruble, its strengthening, are most likely explained by problems with settlements: there are difficulties with imports not only through unfriendly currencies, but also through the same yuan. Nevertheless, in the medium term, these issues will probably be resolved, and we expect some weakening of the ruble to the region of 94-95 against the dollar in the range of six months. It is difficult to talk about the next month, the situation is determined more by local factors than long-term ones, regarding the dynamics of export-import flows, which should lead to the ruble showing some weakness.”
Problems with cross-border payments began in December 2023. At that time, some foreign banks stopped processing transactions of companies associated with Russia due to the risk of secondary sanctions. The situation was worst in Turkey and China. And the problem has not yet been resolved, although the authorities have repeatedly stated that they are looking for ways to fix the situation. However, as soon as the situation with cross-border payments improves, the ruble may face a collapse, believes Natalia Pyryeva, an analyst at Tsifra Broker:
«There are two factors that could negatively affect the dynamics of the national currency. On the one hand, if the situation with payments is resolved, then deferred demand for imports will form, and we may see its significant growth. On the other hand, the situation on the fuel market may worsen. It is clear that a huge share of export flows comes from oil and gas. Accordingly, the worsening situation here will lead to a contraction of export flows. With an increase in imports, this, in turn, will form a deficit in the supply of foreign currency on the domestic market and weaken the ruble exchange rate.
In principle, the Bank of Russia also maintains its further forecasts for the balance of payments for 2025-2027 as not very favorable. That is, the current account balance will decrease, imports will remain stably high with a moderate contraction of export flows.
Considering the fact that the authorities are lowering the threshold for the sale of mandatory revenue, operations on the domestic market, we understand that the range in which the ruble is now is comfortable for the country. That is, there is no goal to stabilize the national currency rate somewhere much below the level of 85 rubles per US dollar.»
This week, large brokers decided to allow their clients to over-the-counter currency trading. In the near future, BCS will launch this opportunity, company representatives said. Earlier, the broker Finam also announced it. They noted that individuals will be able to conduct transactions only in the second half of August.
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