Israel braced for a lurch to the Right in fresh elections

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu adjusts his protective face mask after receiving a coronavirus disease

Credit: Reuters/Reuters

Israel is bracing for a lurch to the right in elections early next year, following the downfall of the country’s leading centrist and a fresh challenge against prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu from a pro-settlement firebrand. 

The Jewish state’s fragile and ill-tempered coalition government, led by Mr Netanyahu and Benny Gantz of the centrist Blue and White faction, collapsed on Tuesday night after they failed to agree on a budget. 

It means that Israelis will be heading to the polls next March for the fourth time in two years, in the hopes of finally returning a stable government.  Critics say Mr Netanyahu forced the election in an attempt to stay in power for as long as possible, as he faces an ongoing trial on corruption charges which he strongly denies. 

Meanwhile Mr Gantz, once considered Israel’s only hope of unseating the man known as "Bibi," is facing electoral oblivion after he reneged on his campaign vow to never form a government with Mr Netanyahu. 

According to a recent poll, his Blue and White alliance is expected to fall from 33 seats in the Knesset, the Israeli parliament, to just five. 

Over the past seven months he was repeatedly humiliated by Mr Netanyahu, who kept him in the dark about key developments on the government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic and normalisation treaties with Arab states. 

“His downfall is seen here as a sort of Greek tragedy which was so predictable because he had no political experience and didn’t know what he was doing,” said Dr Dahlia Scheindlin, a political analyst and pollster.

“Netanyahu is in his element at the moment, he’s the king of his political domain, and Gantz walked right into a trap by agreeing to form a government,” she added. 

Gideon Saar, the founder of a new right-wing party challenging Mr Netanyahu

Credit: Amir Cohen/ Reuters/Amir Cohen/ Reuters

While the demise of his lead opponent in the last three elections may cheer Mr Netanyahu, he also risks losing seats to a former ally who now leads his own breakaway movement. 

Earlier this month, Gideon Sa’ar, a former Likud education minister, founded his New Hope party, which supports settlement expansion and opposes a two-state solution with the Palestinians. 

Dr Scheindlin said Mr Sa’ar had already made a “splash” in Israeli politics, with some polls projecting the fledgling movement to emerge from the election as the second largest party. 

“In sharp, painful contrast with Gantz he has political experience — he has held ministerial portfolios, was a prominent member of Likud for years and he stood against Netanyahu for the leadership. That means he’s gutsy — and Israelis like a gutsy politician.”

Should New Hope win at least 20 seats in the Knesset, it would be a major headache for Mr Netanyahu, as it risks blocking his alliance from securing the 120-seat majority that is required to form a government.  Mr Sa’ar strong views on expanding settlements and the conflict with the Palestinians may prompt Mr Netanyahu to harden his own right-wing policies, prompting a lurch to the right in Israeli politics that may alarm the incoming Biden administration. 

Speaking after the collapse of the government, Mr Netanyahu signalled that his achievements in normalising relations with Arab states and procuring coronavirus vaccines will be the key pillars of his campaign. 

 “I’m not afraid of elections… the Israeli public knows who has delivered millions of vaccines, four peace agreements, who is stopping Iran, who has delivered security and who is going to rehabilitate the economy with greater momentum,” he said. 

But Jason Pearlman, a former adviser to Israeli president Reuven Rivlin and communications strategist, said concerns about the economy were more likely to harm Mr Netanyahu’s prospects. 

At the height of the coronavirus pandemic, unemployment rose to around 20 per cent while many merchants and shopkeepers, typically core Likud supporters, were devastated by business closures. 

“The peace deals are significant but no one is paying that much attention to them because of the economic crisis at home,” Mr Pearlman said. “This election will be about putting food on the table."