The coup has thrown the future of Rohingya repatriation further in doubt
Credit: Hannah McKay/Reuters
The United Nations Security Council will hold an emergency meeting on Tuesday to respond to the security situation in Myanmar, amid fears that the military coup could aggravate the plight of the Rohingya Muslim minority still inside the country, and those living as refugees abroad.
The military chiefs who executed Monday’s coup against the democratically-elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi, have been accused by UN investigators of overseeing a brutal military campaign against the Rohingya with “genocidal intent,” causing more than 740,000 to flee in 2017 to Bangladesh.
A UN-appointed fact-finding mission also concluded in 2019 that those who remained in their home state of Rakhine were still at risk of genocide, facing government attempts to “erase their identity and remove them from the country.”
The impact of the coup on the ongoing Rohingya crisis is one of more pressing examples of the wider knock-on effect that the military’s actions will have on Myanmar’s Asian neighbours.
Monday’s events have thrown the Southeast Asian nation into turmoil, and created further uncertainty for some 600,000 Rohingya already living under heightened restrictions in Rakhine, including 120,000 confined to camps, deprived of free movement, and health and education services.
A rally in support of Aung San Suu Kyi in 2019 as she defended Myanmar against genocide charges
Credit: Sai Aung Main/AFP
"Our fear is that the events may make the situation worse for them," said Stephane Dujarric, a UN spokesman.
Humanitarian groups focused on Rohingya rights, and who have documented apartheid-like conditions in Rakhine, have echoed those concerns.
“This coup is a disaster for the people of Myanmar including the Rohingya in Rakhine State,” said John Quinley, senior human rights specialist at Fortify Rights.
It also casts a shadow over ongoing efforts to create the right conditions for Rohingya refugees living in sprawling Bangladeshi camps to be able to return home. Last month, Bangladesh and Myanmar agreed to start repatriating refugees by the second quarter of 2021, after two previous failed attempts.
“Repatriation is extremely premature at this time. Rohingya in Myanmar are not granted basic rights to citizenship, freedom of movement, and livelihoods. Until these rights and others are restored Rohingya refugees will not return to Myanmar,” said Mr Quinley.
“There also needs to be safety and security in the country for returns to take place. Right now the situation is extremely volatile and there is lack of clarity about the future.”
Dhaka, which has faced a huge financial and logistical burden in hosting so many refugees, said on Monday that it hoped repatriation processes would “continue in right earnest,” adding, “as an immediate and friendly neighbour, we would like to see peace and stability in Myanmar."
Myanmar's citizens woke up to a coup on Monday morning
Credit: Reuters
The ripple effect of the coup across Asia will be discussed at today’s 15-member Security Council meeting.
"We want to address the long-term threats to peace and security, of course working closely with Myanmar’s Asia and Asean neighbours," Barbara Woodward, Britain’s UN Ambassador and president of the council for February, told reporters.
All eyes will be on the crucial reaction of China which, backed by Russia, shielded Myanmar from any significant council action after the 2017 military crackdown.
Beijing and Moscow are council veto powers along with France, Britain and the United States.
On Monday, China, which has substantial oil, gas and infrastructure interests in Myanmar, as well as sharing a 1,500-mile-long restive border, said it was assessing the situation, and called on all sides to “appropriately handle their differences.”
Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, visited the country last year to finalise billions of dollars of investment projects. Wang Yi, his foreign minister, met senior officials in the capital, Naypyitaw, last month to discuss border security, greater regional cooperation and Rohingya repatriation.
“China will not welcome news of the recent coup. The Chinese authorities have warm relations with Aung San Suu Kyi that have deepened as western countries criticised her civilian government’s response to the Rohingya crisis,” said Champa Patel, director of the Asia-Pacific Programme at Chatham House.
Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi met with Aung San Suu Kyi in January
Credit: Reuters
“The military, on the other hand, is perceived as having a more independent streak that sought to balance against Chinese influence.”
However, Professor Damien Kingsbury, a Southeast Asia expert at Australia’s Deakin university, suggested that China may have indicated it would step in to soften the blow of any Western sanctions.
“China probably doesn’t want instability, but it would prefer a sympathetic military government aligned with Beijing than a reformist government drifting close to the West,” he said.
India, another major neighbour to Myanmar and a strategic rival to China, expressed “deep concern” about the coup. Fearing instability along its border, it joined the UK, US and UN in calling for a democratic transition.
The Indian government has been courting the Suu Kyi regime, which was looking to reduce its dependency on Chinese funding under its flagship One Belt One Road scheme. Some $4 billion out of $10 billion Myanmarese debt is owed to Beijing.
India views Myanmar as a key future trading partner and has sought to strengthen ties by gifting the country its first submarine in October and donating 1.5 million doses of the AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine last month.
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