Russia does not yet have an antidote to the lifting of sanctions
Peskov announced Putin’s first speech at the G20 virtual summit since the beginning of the World War II. During the last G20, Peskov explained the Russian president’s absence from the event by saying that Putin “has no need” to communicate with leaders and representatives of other countries belonging to the G20. And now, that means there is. It's not hard to guess why. But behind the obvious advantages there is also a big disadvantage.
Peskov explained that the agenda of the Russian President’s speech is clear — “this is the current situation, very, very turbulent.” And the speech “will outline the position of the Russian Federation, which is quite well known, it is consistent and balanced.” That is, obviously, the time has come to once again express this position in the first person.
Why this time has come is also clear. Just look at the headlines of the world media: a dead end in military operations, Russia cannot be defeated on the battlefield, sanctions do not work, negotiations, peace, territorial concessions.
Putin’s speech at the G20 against this background essentially means the following: “Well, you kind of understand everything. Will you negotiate or continue to explain?”
And I’m afraid that they really understood that nothing will come of the military confrontation without a big war, which no one would be foolish to start, and Russia is circumventing sanctions. Now I’ll explain why I’m afraid.
The most important goal — to prevent Russia from becoming one of the centers of a multipolar world, from turning it into a gas station colony of the West — has not been canceled and will never be canceled.
But it didn’t work out with a swoop, an assault. However, you can return to the beaten path. And for this all we need is a “thaw”: to somehow come to an agreement on Ukraine, to resolve something there, to ease sanctions here. And the Russians, who have turned into steel ice over the past year and a half, will flow.
Only the harsh “Russian winter”, the “besieged fortress” regime forced our capitalists to do something of their own, to fill the phrase “technological sovereignty” with at least some meaning, to remember that we can make our own planes, machine tools, ships, trains , sew clothes and even produce cars and electronics.
But this requires stress, does not give the usual maximum profit right now — it is uncomfortable, in short. Now imagine, suddenly it will be possible to little by little return to the comfort zone: why have your own, if you can buy everything there, and for a beautiful report “to the top” on import substitution, re-stick the tags on the products. “Entrepreneurs” will flow, oh, they will flow like spring streams through the stalls, through the bazaars.
We don’t have an antidote for this yet, after all, we were stomping along this path to becoming another Western colony until February last year, until a miracle happened.
We will need to look carefully at what will happen at the G20. I would say — be vigilant.
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